10/15: Belmont (7th-10th); Keeneland (5th-10th) Santa Anita (Derby)

Kasept · #1 10-15-2011, 07:15 AM

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

OFF THE TURF 11-12/WON ($5.00)-8-5

8th: Knickerbocker (G3), 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Boisterous 5-2 WON ($4.10)
Next Best: #2 Yummy With Butter 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Mr. Ryder 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Boots Ahead 8-1 5th

9th: Athenia (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Unbridled Humor 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Thai Haku 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Denomination 4-1 WON ($11.00)

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

OFF THE TURF 2-1a-6/Gate SCR

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 11-12
8: 1-2-3-4-9
9: 4-6-7
10: 1-2-6/Gate SCR

2x5x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Cane Garden Bay 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Quartersawn 6-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Red All Over 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Sculptor 6-1 2nd

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Ballyclough 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Big Albert 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Enclosure 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Super Add: #4 Taproot 5-1 6th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 St Moose 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Congenial 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Garmento 20-1 9th
Super Add: #7 First Minister 12-1 5th

8th: 1st Keeneland 75th Anniversary, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: # Norm's Passion 3-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Luke of York 5-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #3 Italo 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Voodoo Daddy 5-2 2nd

9th: 28th QE II Challenge Cup (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Important late season test for soph gals, and an outstanding cast has come together for this edition including Together, Coolmore's runner up in last week's First Lady. Naysayers are lined up to bet against Winter Memories, with the Del Mar Oaks trioka led by Summer Soiree appearing to be the key. Last year, Shirreffs won this with Harmonious as she and Evening Jewel -- coming out of the DMR Oaks -- ran 1-2. The decision that is toughest is what to do with the 2 Shirreffs horses today. In the meantime, Tom Proctor sneaks Pucker Up winner Marketing Mix into the fray, and at 20-1 with Gomez, I'm very interested in taking an alternative position with her and the O'Brien run-back..

Most Likely: #2 Together 5-1 WON ($11.20)
Best Value: #4 Marketing Mix 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Summer Soiree 2-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Winter Memories 9-5 4th

10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Irish Exchange 4-1 DNF
Best Value: #5 Whispering Wisdom 12-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Try to Catch Her 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Coup 7-2 DQ'd to 10th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Candy Cat Can 15-1 9th

<$100 P5 Play:

6: 1-6
7: 3-7-9-10
8: 4-6
9: 2-3-4-8
10: 2-5-12

2x4x2x4x3 = 192 x .50 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-7-9-10
8: 4-6
9: 1-2-3-4-5-8
10: 2-5-12

4x2x6x3 = `144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: Oak Tree Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Outside draw makes Midnight Interlude a vulnerable underlay with plenty of viable options in fun assembly..

Most Likely: #3 Venomous 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Great Warrior 15-1 12th
Exotics Use: #11 Cozy Kitten 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Lil Bit O'Fun 12-1 8th

Good luck!
Steve

golfer · #2 10-15-2011, 09:25 AM

Belmont's 7th and 10th are OFF THE TURF

lemoncrush · #3 10-15-2011, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Irish Exchange 4-1
Best Value: #5 Whispering Wisdom 12-1
Next Best: #4 Coup 7-2
Exotics Use: #12 Try to Catch Her 5-1
Hi-5 Play: #7 Candy Cat Can 15-1

Steve, I see you and Gus each picked the Larry Jones filly "Irish Exchange" on top in the 10th. Any reason why you're drawn to her? I realize the race lacks any runners with any real form, but she faded miserably in both her starts against what appears to be short, modest fields at Deleware. I just have a hard time seeing her appeal against a full field of 12 today.
With that being said, I don't have a clear cut alternative, but do like the 4 (Coup), the 12 (Try to catch her) and may even include the 7 (Candy Cat Can) as a value play on my pk 4.

Good luck!

Kasept · #4 10-15-2011, 12:20 PM

BEL SCR/CHG'S

Kasept · #5 10-15-2011, 12:30 PM

KEE SCR/CHG'S

Bigsmc · #6 10-15-2011, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Steve, I see you and Gus each picked the Larry Jones filly "Irish Exchange" on top in the 10th. Any reason why you're drawn to her? I realize the race lacks any runners with any real form, but she faded miserably in both her starts against what appears to be short, modest fields at Deleware. I just have a hard time seeing her appeal against a full field of 12 today.
With that being said, I don't have a clear cut alternative, but do like the 4 (Coup), the 12 (Try to catch her) and may even include the 7 (Candy Cat Can) as a value play on my pk 4.

Good luck!

I agree, Irish Exchange is not even on my ticket.

I am using Coup. I will add 3 - Lotta Heart to your list of possibilities. McPeek is not the greatest with firsters, but this one has been working rapidly enough in the am, sibs are all sprinters (3 wins in 6 fake stuff starts to boot) and Badge of Silver is above average with non dirt starters.

jms62 · #7 10-15-2011, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I agree, Irish Exchange is not even on my ticket.

I am using Coup. I will add 3 - Lotta Heart to your list of possibilities. McPeek is not the greatest with firsters, but this one has been working rapidly enough in the am, sibs are all sprinters (3 wins in 6 fake stuff starts to boot) and Badge of Silver is above average with non dirt starters.

Look at the Oct 7 Work and where it was done.

Bigsmc · #8 10-15-2011, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Look at the Oct 7 Work and where it was done.

Saw that.

Looks to me like she will fold as soon as she's looked in the eye and I am wagering on the fact that this will happen today.

If he beats me, so be it, but those two races she ran are not even close to what needs to be done to win a MSW at Keeneland and I won't stomach the short price she will be.

lemoncrush · #9 10-15-2011, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Look at the Oct 7 Work and where it was done.

Several runners in here show good works over the Keenland surface. I need to see more than just one nice work.

3kings · #10 10-15-2011, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I agree, Irish Exchange is not even on my ticket.

I am using Coup. I will add 3 - Lotta Heart to your list of possibilities. McPeek is not the greatest with firsters, but this one has been working rapidly enough in the am, sibs are all sprinters (3 wins in 6 fake stuff starts to boot) and Badge of Silver is above average with non dirt starters.

That race confused me too. It made my p4 more than I was willing to invest. Settled on the 7-9 P3. That race 7 had a few prices that interested me, went:

2,3,4,7,9/3,4,6/2,3,8

Kasept · #11 10-15-2011, 02:38 PM

With Tina in Vermont for a couple hours, and don't have pp's at hand. Thought it was an impossible group. More or less gravitated to some that had run.

Kasept · #12 10-15-2011, 08:02 PM

Crazy board in the Oak Tree Mile with Midnight Interlude heavier than even expected underlay at 2-1.

Tons of price options so go whatever direction you want... Cozy Kitten at 19-1 (10 MTP) a perfect example.

(Now 17-1 with 5 MTP).. I built around 3 up/down with 1-2-7-11 and also boxed up the 1-2-7-11 alone. Added some saver wins on the biggest numbers.

Rudeboyelvis · #13 10-16-2011, 11:17 AM

Sweet cold exacta in the QEII Steve - Nice work

dpkovalesky · #14 10-16-2011, 12:14 PM

any word on horse and rider after that spill in the finale at keenland yesterday?

hockey2315 · #15 10-16-2011, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dpkovalesky

any word on horse and rider after that spill in the finale at keenland yesterday?

Both are fine