10/26: Belmont Park ($27k C/O)

Kasept · #1 10-26-2011, 06:36 AM

Interesting afternoon Sunday flirting with big P4 opportunity ($2,800+ for .50) at Keeneland before settling with a get-out hit on Carroll's $28 Point to the Wild. Dowager winner Senada -- a perennial bridesmaid -- was unappealing at the 6-1 ML, but went postward at 3X that number! Belmont, Keeneland and Santa Anita are drawing towards their ends, and a $27k C/O in New York to start the raceweek is very challenging. Day 3 of Breeders' Cup coverage continues from Churchill Downs with the pre-entries ready for consideration!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: S/HCP, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Exclusive Strike 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #7 Parc des Princes 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Unbridled Heat 5-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Mr. Enrico 15-1 2nd

.10 SUPER: Supers cancelled

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (G/S, P3 DD, Super)

The faves -- #2 Sparks Will Fly (5-2) and #4 Reach for a Peach (7-2) -- are OK, but there are plenty of more interesting players at prices as good or better..

Best Value: #5 Silver Willow 10-1 11th
Next Best: #6 Rodinia 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Manero 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Ann Flower 20-1 9th

6th:CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 A La Moda 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Margo Verge 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Chickatari 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Rock Star Royalty 6-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Stellars Theory 10-1 2nd

7th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Very tough to seperate these..

Most Likely: #4 Holiday Broad 7-2 WON ($10.60)
Best Value: #10 Fly to the Sky 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Steal the Appeal 6-1 12th
Super Add: #5 Centrique 6-1 5th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Imagining is OK, but 2-1 is silly. Freshman Dorm is good now and we've been riding this train through the upswing..

Best Value: #4 Freshman Dorm 8-1 WON ($17.20)
Next Best: #10 Imagining 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 E. H. Indy 6-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Abilio 8-1 4th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Difficult sequence doesn't ease up here..

Most Likely: #3 Departures 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 He's a Scrooge 4-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Haya's Boy 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Yesterday's Story 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Old Kit Bag 10-1 6th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3
5: 1-5-6
6: 2-8-9-10
7: 4-10
8: 4-10
9: 3-8

1x3x4x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-8-9-10-11
7: 4-6-10
8: 4-10
9: 2-3-4-6-8

5x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve

Gate Dancer · #2 10-26-2011, 07:51 AM

Really like Rodinia in the 5th here................

RockHardTen1985 · #3 10-26-2011, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

Really like Rodinia in the 5th here................

Rodinia makes as much sense as anyone, but your not getting that 5-1. That horse could go off the chalk. Like Steve, I like the 5 a little.

Kasept · #4 10-26-2011, 10:34 AM

BEL SCR/CHG'S

Gate Dancer · #5 10-26-2011, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Rodinia makes as much sense as anyone, but your not getting that 5-1. That horse could go off the chalk. Like Steve, I like the 5 a little.

Serling has him picked on top also (#5)..........not sure I see why other than the dam has produced a couple of turf winners and the colt gets 1st Lasix.............but the trainer is 0-17 with first turf starts.

RockHardTen1985 · #6 10-26-2011, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

Serling has him picked on top also (#5)..........not sure I see why other than the dam has produced a couple of turf winners and the colt gets 1st Lasix.............but the trainer is 0-17 with first turf starts.

The race and sequence around it are tough, so I might be passing. I kinda like 1-3. I think the 5 has a big chance in the 3rd, and the Pletcher will be around 4-5.

GPK · #7 10-26-2011, 10:49 AM

I love the closer look comments on Sparks Will Fly in the 5th:

"She clearly took a step in the right direction in her first start over turf in her latest outing, but it is worth noting that comfortable early pace she attended that day, and it's a little interesting to see Maragh aboard another in here."

Really? Maragh off/JJ up is a negative jock switch?

RockHardTen1985 · #8 10-26-2011, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

I love the closer look comments on Sparks Will Fly in the 5th:

"She clearly took a step in the right direction in her first start over turf in her latest outing, but it is worth noting that comfortable early pace she attended that day, and it's a little interesting to see Maragh aboard another in here."

Really? Maragh off/JJ up is a negative jock switch?

Its not really negative, but I can see why its being noted. Maragh is capable enough. From the replay I dont see anything Maragh did wrong to get booted off of Sparks Will Fly. So on paper it looks like his agent decided to ride the 10-1 shot who comes out of a race where the winner ran a beyer in the mid 40's.

knickslions2 · #9 10-26-2011, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

Really like Rodinia in the 5th here................

I like the 1 here

ADJMK · #10 10-26-2011, 04:01 PM

Sorry to jinx you Steve. With the way my luck has been going if I knew when I bet Manero itwas going to cost you the P6 I wouldn't have bet him

tomm5647 · #11 10-26-2011, 04:18 PM

Thank you Steve for Freshman Dorm in the 8th. I just played to win and made a nice score. You are the master at finding these price horses.
Keep it going for the BC

ADJMK · #12 10-26-2011, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Sorry to jinx you Steve. With the way my luck has been going if I knew when I bet Manero itwas going to cost you the P6 I wouldn't have bet him

Guess it didn't matter. Saved you the heartbreak.

Kasept · #13 10-26-2011, 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomm5647

Thank you Steve for Freshman Dorm in the 8th. I just played to win and made a nice score. You are the master at finding these price horses.
Keep it going for the BC

Thx Tomm. That was great. Glad you hit! Freshman Dorm has been terrific and keeps getting away at juicy numbers, and we were lucky to survive the inquiry/objection.