1/14: Aqueduct ($20k C/O); Gulfstream (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Big question is how to view the 2 similar events 12/15 and 12/28 from which 7 of these exit, and the earlier version may be the right one to gravitate toward. And what do you do with #3 Big Fearless (8-1) off the 13 month break? Really good start to an excellent card..

#5 Able Bellamy (4-1) a SCR..

Most Likely: #4 Hangover Kid 2-1 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #7 Sound of Drums 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Idle American 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Big Fearless 8-1 5th


2nd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

#2 Hardened Wildcat (3-1) is out of GSW mare Wild Snitch and half to sharp sprinter Vengeful Wildcat. $325k Darley buy #1a Le Bernardin is by Bernardini and half to an excellent GSW Mott mare some should remember, Taittinger Rose (Menifee)..

Most Likely: #2 Hardened Wildcat 3-1 WON ($9.50)
Next Best: #3 Rockin Boogie 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1e McLaughlin entry 4-1 4th/5th


3rd: Shots are Ringing, 4yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Race torn up by SCR's of Socialsaul & Rustler Hustler..

Most Likely: #3 San Pablo 3-5 WON ($2.20)
Best Value: #4 Isn't He Perfect 12-1 2nd


4th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$20k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #5 Scorper 3-1 DNF
Best Value: #11 Metaurus 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Dr. W 8-5 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #10 Troponin 12-1 3rd


5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Our own Dee Tee filly #10 Ausable Chasm (9-2) adds Ramon Dominguez to try and build on strong try a fortnight ago and could sit a good stalking trip. Contessa is giving away #6 Lake Song (7-2) who would run away if able to approach level of Busanda try a year ago. #9 Stellars Theory (3-1) is the most consistant participant signed on and adds blinkers. #1 Warrior Marie (8-1) broke her maiden under today's pilot and looks a threat. #12 Rock Glory (20-1) is a big overlay abandoning Husbands for the 7# bug and could juice proceedings with anything close to the August effort at MTH..

Most Likely: #9 Stellars Theory 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Ausable Chasm 9-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Warrior Marie 8-1 WON ($18.60)
Exotics Use: #12 Real Glory 20-1 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3-5
3: 3
4: 1-5-7-10-11
5: 1-6-9-10-12

4x1x5x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/1,3,6/1/1) Paid $81.12


6th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Bojan 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Max's First 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Mr. Magenta 5-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Even Frisky 10-1 6th


7th: 35th Ruthless, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Agave Kiss may be OK, but will you be shocked if she gets beat? This feels tricky with a number of out-of-towners and other progressive possibilities. Fun little stake..

Most Likely: #5 Agave Kiss 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #9 Well Kept 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Better Lucky 8-1 5th


8th: NY-OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

No less than 3 here -- Star of New York, Iron Lou, Itsagoodtendollars -- run 1st off the claim, with all going to sharp operators. Not a lot of speed involved either, so look for Lopez to hustle Itsagoodtendollars from that wide berth..

Most Likely: #9 Itsagoodtendollars 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Iron Lou 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Star of New York 8-1 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #7 Summer Share 20-1 6th


9th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 6f (Super)

Obviously, anything close to the Gulfstream run from Panthro wins here..

Most Likely: #6 Panthro 4-5 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #7 Quiet Eyes 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Pearl of Wisdom 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Officerandafoose 5-1 3rd


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-5-10-11
5: 1-9-10
6: 8
7: 5
8: 3-8-9
9: 6-7

4x3x1x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (1/1/1/1,2,3,5/3/5,6,9,11,13,14) Paid $222.50 (5OF6)


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 6-8-12
7: 5-6-7-9-10
8: 3-8-9
9: 6-7

3x5x3x2 = 90 x .50 = $45



GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Miss Partypants 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Pearl in the Sand 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Colonial Flag 6-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Hookipa 12-1 9th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Ecabroni 8-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #5 Restructuring Plan 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Rise Against 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Arm Force 6-1 4th


8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Walker's Landing 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Versailles Road 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Carnival Ride 12-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Keep Me Informed 8-1 9th


9th: 24th Hal's Hope (G3), 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Jackson Bend 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #3 Sangaree 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Soaring Empire 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Cool Blue Red Hot 12-1 3rd


10th: 57th Ft. Lauderdale (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Yummy With Butter 10-1 6th-DQ'd from 2nd
Next Best: #5 Mutual Trust 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Uptowncharleybrown 15-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Teaks North 8-1 7th


11th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 9f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Summer Kitten 4-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Corbins Village 9-5 7th
Best Value: #6 Roses for the Star 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #15 Wet One 3-1 WON ($8.40)
Hi-5 Play: #3 Another Please 6-1 2nd


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 5-7-8
8: 7-10
9: 1-3
10: 1-4-5-7-10-11
11: 8-9

3x2x2x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-7-10
9: 1-3
10: 1-4-5-7-10-11
11: 6-8-9-15

4x2x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

FYI... Rick Violette forced to SCR one of the likelies #4 Flamin' Hot (3-1) from the GP 8th after spiking a fever overnight..

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

Surpringly, lots of scratches..

[Kasept]

GP SCR/CHG'S

[dagolfer33]

Steve, what happened to Mr. Chalky-Player? He seems to have disappeared. I was counting on his many profitable selections to get out for the week. Good luck today action/Ausable wise!!!!

[jms62]

Fastest Magician... Honestly I am not sure if I go 10 deep I would have included him.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Fastest Magician... Honestly I am not sure if I go 10 deep I would have included him.

Agreed..

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Agreed..

Add me to the list.

[Kasept]

Keyed off Yummy With Butter at the number..


..will take it but would have liked him on top!


Or nothing after being DQ'd...

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Keyed off Yummy With Butter at the number..


..will take it but would have liked him on top!


Or nothing after being DQ'd...

Boy you are sure having some bad luck lately. How did that P6 pay $85,000 ??
Quite a payoff compared to 5/6.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Boy you are sure having some bad luck lately. How did that P6 pay $85,000 ?? Quite a payoff compared to 5/6.

No. Not really. There was no 'unlucky' involved in not using Fight for VLT's in the P6. And Yummy With Butter was an obvious take down and DQ's are to be taken in stride.

You know what is readily apparent though? How often you appear gleeful when I miss a quality hit.

[jms62]

Looked at my account today and was suprised. I didn't realize they paid 4/5 at Gulfstream. I'd rather they didn't do that and use the entire pool for the P5.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Looked at my account today and was suprised. I didn't realize they paid 4/5 at Gulfstream. I'd rather they didn't do that and use the entire pool for the P5.

Bigs addressed that with Tampa management and got it changed.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Bigs addressed that with Tampa management and got it changed.

I always wondered why they called him Bigs, now I know.

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

No. Not really. There was no 'unlucky' involved in not using Fight for VLT's in the P6. And Yummy With Butter was an obvious take down and DQ's are to be taken in stride.

You know what is readily apparent though? How often you appear gleeful when I miss a quality hit.

Quite the opposite Steve. Having lost myself many big payoffs by bad beats I am just sympathizing on how close you are coming.It is actually is a testamony to your handicapping that you are coming this close. Sorry if you took my comments the wrong way.