Value Sires

Calzone Lord · #1 01-23-2012, 12:22 AM

Not sure such a thing exists or not.

It's interesting that Bernardini (a well bred and outstanding racehorse) has been made into the super sire of the future.

He got Zenyatta this year, he'll get Rachel Alexandra next year.

How have Bernardini's offspring performed on the race track VS expectations?

Bernardini offspring:

2011: 379-66-42-41 17% wins 30% loss on every dollar bet.

2010: 63-12-9-5 20% wins 7.5% loss

So far, they are losing more than the takeout... and with 27 fewer second place finishers than wins, no less.

Calzone Lord · #2 01-23-2012, 12:56 AM

Just got done reviewing sires whose name starts with the letter A or B. I added some noteworthy names below ... and Buddha ...

Buddha offspring have avg'd about 900 starts a year for the last 5 years -- and NOT ONCE have his offspring posted an ROI of $1.30 or better!

Afleet Alex:

2011: 810-118-119-102 (1.66 ROI)
2010: 575-93-87-77 (1.37 ROI)
2009: 161 18 26 19 (1.24 ROI)

A. P. Indy:

2011: 631 75 80 87 (1.28 ROI)
2010: 744 108 87 86 (1.23 ROI)
2009: 814 137 93 95 (1.66 ROI)
2008: 711 135 89 90 (1.97 ROI)
2007: 795 143 120 103 (1.69 ROI)

Arch:

2011: 556 99 88 79 (1.90 ROI)
2010: 533 82 75 61 (1.58 ROI)
2009: 468 74 58 64 (2.19 ROI)
2008: 593 94 72 90 (1.66 ROI)
2007: 611 120 89 97 (2.10 ROI)

Awesome Again:

2011: 942 156 127 129 (2.03 ROI)
2010: 883 144 111 107 (1.38 ROI)
2009: 837 143 116 98 (1.63 ROI)
2008: 884 179 128 101 (2.22 ROI)
2007: 879 134 120 108 (1.52 ROI)

Badge Of Silver:

2011: 534 78 71 61 (1.88 ROI)
2010: 115 17 14 11 (2.62 ROI)

Bellamy Road:

2011: 415 81 56 41 (2.02 ROI)
2010: 99 16 14 14 (1.64 ROI)

Bernardini:

2011: 379-66-42-41 (1.40 ROI)
2010: 63-12-9-5 (1.85 ROI)

Bluegrass Cat:

2011: 704 94 82 83 (1.33 ROI)
2010: 211 27 22 34 (1.24 ROI)

Buddha:

2011: 669 64 73 85 (1.26 ROI)
2010: 1102 137 141 125 (1.29 ROI)
2009: 1167 152 128 136 (1.28 ROI)
2008: 976 120 110 127 (1.26 ROI)
2007: 576 72 68 60 (1.15 ROI)

Calzone Lord · #3 01-23-2012, 01:12 AM

The very first sire who starts with C that I looked at ... is like the Anti-Buddha.

Cactus Ridge:

2011: 911 155 139 110 (1.95 ROI)
2010: 845 141 108 101 (2.09 ROI)
2009: 727 150 104 90 (2.71 ROI)
2008: 417 71 48 61 (1.98 ROI)

Sh!t, I'm probably going to be doing this till 5AM now.

Thank God my girlfriend is starting Grad school tomorrow and I get even more time to waste on stuff like this.

Calzone Lord · #4 01-23-2012, 02:00 AM

The rest of the C's...

So far Concerto (Bellamy Road's sire) is the only sire whose offspring have had 3 profitable years. Interestingly, Concerto was also 184-28-36-21 with a profitable $2.06 ROI as a broodmare sire last year. Eight more second place finishes than wins, yet still profitable. Good value sire, I guess.

Candy Ride:

2011: 855 157 128 104 (2.19 ROI)
2010: 842 158 113 124 (1.45 ROI)
2009: 559 101 92 61 (1.71 ROI)
2008: 141 30 20 20 (4.26 ROI)

Chapel Royal:

2011: 1249 151 145 178 (1.23 ROI)
2010: 1145 159 154 154 (1.32 ROI)
2009: 831 114 126 102 (1.71 ROI)
2008: 256 35 27 39 (1.38 ROI)

Cherokee Run:

2011: 810 131 131 101 (1.53 ROI)
2010: 955 141 141 142 (1.58 ROI)
2009: 1026 167 145 155 (1.48 ROI)
2008: 1012 149 172 145 (1.37 ROI)
2007: 962 148 132 117 (1.51 ROI)

City Zip:

2011: 1252 191 186 162 (1.31 ROI)
2010: 1138 188 158 161 (1.58 ROI)
2009: 1029 167 148 115 (1.72 ROI)
2008: 888 144 109 114 (1.58 ROI)
2007: 754 113 108 90 (1.77 ROI)

Closing Argument:

2011: 768 126 141 132 (1.69 ROI)
2010: 569 105 88 80 (2.13 ROI)
2009: 135 22 25 16 (2.05 ROI)

Concerto:

2011: 552 95 75 63 (2.08 ROI)
2010: 686 103 123 95 (2.14 ROI)
2009: 698 104 109 97 (1.47 ROI)
2008: 752 113 107 113 (2.16 ROI)
2007: 775 124 107 93 (1.48 ROI)

Cuvee:

2011: 711 124 118 79 (1.69 ROI)
2010: 686 106 106 85 (1.55 ROI)
2009: 601 121 106 76 (1.91 ROI)
2008: 160 28 22 25 (1.86 ROI)

Indian Charlie · #5 01-23-2012, 02:14 AM

You seem to be leaving out a lot of sires so far.

For instance, Bwana Charlie!

What's the new GF going to grad school for?

Gotta love winters in Erie and the effect they have on odd posts/threads.

hockey2315 · #6 01-23-2012, 02:15 AM

I've said it here before - Great Notion.

Calzone Lord · #7 01-23-2012, 02:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

You seem to be leaving out a lot of sires so far.

For instance, Bwana Charlie!

What's the new GF going to grad school for?

Gotta love winters in Erie and the effect they have on odd posts/threads.

Bwana Charlie:

2011: 424 61 48 48 (1.87 ROI)
2010: 344 54 46 40 (1.71 ROI)
2009: 105 13 18 12 (1.47 ROI)

Win takeout is around 17% -- so an ROI of 1.66 would be around the avg.

The not so new girlfriend (4 months is the longest continuously running relationship I've had in my life) starts on Monday for Rehabilitation Counseling. She works in the nuthouse division of a hospital. 7pm to 7am for four days a week. She has Monday, Wed, and Thursday off. But will have classes on two of those 3 days now.

Winters in Erie are long and cold.

Calzone Lord · #8 01-23-2012, 02:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I've said it here before - Great Notion.

Great Notion:

2011: 333 64 54 54 (2.40 ROI)
2010: 267 47 30 40 (2.86 ROI)
2009: 156 25 21 17 (1.92 ROI)
2008: 31 7 3 7 (1.20 ROI)

He's never had more than 333 starts in a year from his offspring -- but wow, impressive. The $1.20 ROI year his offspring did win at a 23% clip and the sample size was just 31 starters.

Cannon Shell · #9 01-23-2012, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Not sure such a thing exists or not.

It's interesting that Bernardini (a well bred and outstanding racehorse) has been made into the super sire of the future.

He got Zenyatta this year, he'll get Rachel Alexandra next year.

How have Bernardini's offspring performed on the race track VS expectations?

Bernardini offspring:

2011: 379-66-42-41 17% wins 30% loss on every dollar bet.

2010: 63-12-9-5 20% wins 7.5% loss

So far, they are losing more than the takeout... and with 27 fewer second place finishers than wins, no less.

Dont you think that since the vast majority of Bernardini's are trained by high profile outfits that probably are overbet as well that his ROI will suffer?

Calzone Lord · #10 01-23-2012, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Dont you think that since the vast majority of Bernardini's are trained by high profile outfits that probably are overbet as well that his ROI will suffer?

Not necessarily. About as many of those outfits are high profile and underbet or properly bet as they are overbet.

RockHardTen1985 · #11 01-24-2012, 07:36 AM

In Joes book of great sires Candy Ride is making a huge run at Giants Causeway. I also am loving Rock Hard Ten's. I just cashed on 1 at Gulf a few weeks ago, a firster in a turf sprint from a Chicago trainer.