Bounce theory

[tiggerv]

Pace is the reason for a significant percentage of "bounces". Speed figures never tell the entire story.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Romanova, the winner of that race is out of a Nijinsky II mare. You dont see that much anymore.

Reverie was foaled in 1992, so she would have been 18 when she gave birth to Romanova.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Danzig

or on the other hand...she improved from a 21 to a 41-i'd think people would have expected a bounce from her next out, since she doubled the effortfrom her previous.

Those races were equally bad on TG - I highlighted the BSF tops to illustrate the point - you can't accurately use speed figures to try and determine bounce in my opinion.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Those races were equally bad on TG - I highlighted the BSF tops to illustrate the point - you can't accurately use speed figures to try and determine bounce in my opinion.

oh, ok. i was just looking at them since you'd circled a few.

[JohnGalt1]

My belief is it's common for many horses to run fast races then slow then fast and that is not wheat i dfine as a bounce.

My definition is after a long (3+ month) layoff, and a horse runs an up close (less than one length ahead or behind) most of the way around the track, then has a bad race--that's a bounce.

A good angle is to rate the horse off the comeback race in his third start after the layoff. It's called the Back Bounce Back pattern or BBB.