Union Rags Derby odds?

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by OldDog

As the speed horses in the Derby? That's what I was referring to, in answering Mike.

The speed would have to be Trinniberg, no?

Paul

[golfer]

Originally Posted by OldDog

As the speed horses in the Derby? That's what I was referring to, in answering Mike.

While Take Charge Indy showed speed in his synth debut maiden win, he had been rated in most of his starts, before the Floriday Derby. Based on the inside post, and the importance of saving ground on the 1st turn at GP, there was little doubt they would send him that day. Does not mean he will be on or near the lead in the Derby, IMO.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by pweizer

The speed would have to be Trinniberg, no?

Paul

You're right, he very well should be up there.

Originally Posted by golfer

While Take Charge Indy showed speed in his synth debut maiden win, he had been rated in most of his starts, before the Floriday Derby. Based on the inside post, and the importance of saving ground on the 1st turn at GP, there was little doubt they would send him that day. Does not mean he will be on or near the lead in the Derby, IMO.

Agree he can rate. In his last two starts under Borel, however, he has been let loose on or near the lead, and I could see that being the strategy in a 20 horse field. But I do see what you mean. I guess he's got options depending on where he finds himself as the race unfolds.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by pweizer

The speed would have to be Trinniberg, no?

Paul

I believe that he is skipping the Derby and being geared towards the Preakness.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by pointman

I believe that he is skipping the Derby and being geared towards the Preakness.

I hope you are right (although he should skip the Preakness too) but I will be shocked if he does not run in the Derby. Derby fever is hard to shake.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

If Trinniberg runs in the Kentucky Derby the horses who are 20th-19th-and 18th after a half mile might finish 1-2-3.

He's a stone cold speed-sprinter who has benefited in his last two races because no other rival has been stupid enough to challenge him early.

I'm a big Trinniberg fan but he would be a lock to finish last in the Derby for the simple fact that he will be hit in the head by the quarter pole.

He's rated very well with the blinkers off in his last two -- but if someone breaths on him early and gets him competitive -- you'll see a sensationally fast horse setup a pace meltdown.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

MTB was severely overbet, even at 50-1. I think the consensus is that fair value for him as far as accurately predicting his chances to win was at least 150-1. But both the Borel factor and the Giacomo factor knocked his price down.

I agree he was severely overbet. In my line MTB was 100-1.

--Dunbar

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree he was severely overbet. In my line MTB was 100-1.

--Dunbar

What was Mine That Bird in the exotics though? I've always felt the win odds don't represent the true wagering in the Kentucky Derby. Even though there is a lot of volume, more once-a-year racegoers bet into the win pool vs. the others.