Another major race day at CD where the inside has been Borel proofed

[Calzone Lord]

Ever since Super Saver won the Kentucky Derby in 2010 -- the inside at Churchill Downs has been made deeper on big racing days like the Ky Oaks day, Derby day, Breeders Cup days, and Clark day.

About half of these day have led to Thoro-Graph giving the rarely awarded "X" symbol to all horses who raced on the rail.

For instance, both Breeders Cup days in 2010 got the rare "X" from them. That was the year Tizway was 5th in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile while racing on the inside every step of the way. The hapless longshot Dakota Phone circled the field with a very wide move. Quality Road was also beaten 30 lengths in that years Classic while racing on the inside every step of the way. Eibar Coa delivered a great ride when he gunned Big Drama out of the gate and angled out very sharply to almost instantly get off the inside in that years BC Sprint.

Thoro-Graph will basically give the 'X' when horses who race inside collectively run much slower than expected and horses who race wide run peak races left and right.

In last years Kentucky Derby, Shackleford and Stay Thirsty both had perfect trips, but raced on the inside every step of the way and ran out of the money. The former upset the Preakness next out. The latter just missed at a price in the Belmont next out and took the Travers. Animal Kingdom was 4-wide throughout and Nehro was 5-wide throughout -- both also had clear trips but were just pretty damn wide.

Anyway, the track was very fast today. Horses up close and stalking the speed did great. The rail had been good all meet at CD and was no longer the preferred place to be...it was now the least preferred place to be.

In the realm of track biases...these aren't significantly biased tracks. But, the rail is being intentionally messed with on big days ... and the result is a track that is less than fair to some horses drawn inside who are unable to get off of it.

Nate's Mineshaft in the Alysheba and On Fire Baby in the KY Oaks, for instance. A couple of speed horses who drew post #1 and weren't fast enough to clear and angle-out...but weren't slow enough to be held up and yanked out. Plum Pretty ran a terrible race and doesn't deserve an excuse, but her jockey shouldn't have angled in that much. She had a loose lead and everything her own way as the odds-on favorite, and she couldn't even hold on for 2nd. She should have been kept out four wide setting the pace.

If the track is like this again tomorrow -- and I fully expect it will be...the rail again isn't going to be a good place to be for tactical speed horses who aren't fast enough to clear.

[tiggerv]

Do you think a wet track moves the rail up? I'm thinking Super Saver and Mind that Bird...although I guess both were before they started messing with it. Take Charge Indy for instance may get a horrible trip on a dry rail but it might be a great trip on a wet rail.

[Calzone Lord]

Here's a snapshot look at the winners today. A lot of jockeys set the pace in the 2-to-3 path when they could have and probably should have set the pace in the 4-to-5 path.

1st dirt race:



8-to-5 shot winner is widest and draws away by more than 5 lengths. A huge gap of 16 lengths back to 3rd place finisher.



2nd dirt race:



Ice Cream Silence stalks the pace from the 4-path and draws off to an easy win at $7.80



3rd dirt race:



9/5 winner powers clear with a 4-wide trip in an easy win.



4th dirt race:




16/1 shot Juanita is in about the 3-path outside of Plum Pretty. She put the heavy favorite away easily.

[Calzone Lord]

5th dirt race:



Pacesetter Good Deed "set a fast while kept out in the 3-path" according to the charts. She finishes 2nd. The favorite, and huge margin winner, stalks from the 4 path. It ends up being a tremendously large margin back to 3rd place.


6th dirt race:



5-to-1 shot Fort Larned has that outside stalking trip from the 3-path. Successful Dan comes circling to wear him down late. 7 lengths back to 3rd place.


7th dirt race:



Broadway's Alibi set the pace from about the 3-path. Believe You Can gets that clear 4-wide outside stalking trip and wears her down.


8th and final dirt race of day:

9/2 shot winner comes circling 5-wide on the turn from behind a fast 21 1/5 pace in a MSW fillies race -- and draw off to win by almost five lengths going away in the end.

[slotdirt]

To be fair, the rail has been a bad spot in years before Calvin started winning Derbies. Who can forget the dead rail on Derby day in 2005.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Do you think a wet track moves the rail up? I'm thinking Super Saver and Mind that Bird...although I guess both were before they started messing with it. Take Charge Indy for instance may get a horrible trip on a dry rail but it might be a great trip on a wet rail.

I suppose the rail can be rejuvinated if the track gets hit with a down-pour.

If it's dry...they're probably going to have a purposefully dull rail again.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I suppose the rail can be rejuvinated if the track gets hit with a down-pour.

If it's dry...they're probably going to have a purposefully dull rail again.

Are you betting Sassy Image tomorrow?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

joe 'money' johnson blew the ride on the 1 imo he got stuffed and was made uncomfortable ..jv left just enough to think he would get a lane then shut it off. i agree that the rail wasnt golden today,but look for it to be live on the big day..also great work drugs you are a true asset to the board and for all who read your work..still like dullihan?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Are you betting Sassy Image tomorrow?

She is getting good workout reports.

I am, at least, using every single Dale Romans horse tomorrow. Even if he enters a goat I will try to include him.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

..still like dullihan?

Yeah...I see a pace meltdown with Trinniberg dragging the better horses out of their race.

[Coup Verville]

...at the risk of sounding foolish, is the this done purposely with the rail or is it just the way that track super grooms his track? Is it done because of the possibility of bad weather? Is that even something that the track super has control over? Just wondering...

[Kasept]

So dead on Doug... Was a little bit surprising given the way the track had been inching toward improved inside for speed from the opening last Saturday.