The one race I want hedge my bet

jpops757 · #1 11-03-2006, 08:56 AM

I may be folish but all my bets around the juvi will single CQ. I reserve the right to change my mind but this is the way I heading. Great Hunter and Principal Secret ar the only others that I might play in a double or two.

zippyneedsawin · #2 11-03-2006, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpops757

I may be folish but all my bets around the juvi will single CQ. I reserve the right to change my mind but this is the way I heading. Great Hunter and Principal Secret ar the only others that I might play in a double or two.

I'm thinking along the same way here, but my other horses in this race are Scat Daddy, Principal Secret and Pegasus Wind.

Revolution · #3 11-03-2006, 09:48 AM

Circular Quay is very beatable. He has been getting bashed all over the place.

Andy Beyer absolutely badmouthed the horse, and while beyer is not great at picking winners, he is usually very good at saying who will not win.

Q: What is your take in the juvenile.. Will CQ be to far back to take it

ANDY_BEYER: I think the relevant question is: Is he good enough to take it? My answer is no. I loathe him. His one good figure, in the Hopeful Stakes, came in a race where he got the absolutely perfect setup as the lone closer in a five-horse field with four other speed horses. I don't put any stockin the Polytrack race, but he was beaten at Keeneland even though Great Hunter ran into significant trouble. I think he's a closing sprinter--and not a particularly great one at that.

lemoncrush · #4 11-03-2006, 10:57 AM

I'm guessing Beyer didn't care to watch any of CQs races, when he made jaw-dropping, push-buttom moves completely out of character for a 2-yo.

And he said his win in the Hopeful was only because he had 4 speed horses?
Well Andy, look at this field.
Stormello, Pegasus Wind, Scat Daddy, Principle Secret, UD Ghetto, King of the Roxy...they are going to be absolutely flying early.
I think the race sets up perfect for him, I love the prep on the polytrack, and I love Gomez on board. If he doesn't finish in the top 2, then I'll have to agree that he may just be a one-turn sprinter, but for now, I'm betting he's the real deal.

SniperSB23 · #5 11-03-2006, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Revolution

Circular Quay is very beatable. He has been getting bashed all over the place.

Andy Beyer absolutely badmouthed the horse, and while beyer is not great at picking winners, he is usually very good at saying who will not win.

Q: What is your take in the juvenile.. Will CQ be to far back to take it

ANDY_BEYER: I think the relevant question is: Is he good enough to take it? My answer is no. I loathe him. His one good figure, in the Hopeful Stakes, came in a race where he got the absolutely perfect setup as the lone closer in a five-horse field with four other speed horses. I don't put any stockin the Polytrack race, but he was beaten at Keeneland even though Great Hunter ran into significant trouble. I think he's a closing sprinter--and not a particularly great one at that.

I agree totally with Beyer here.

Revolution · #6 11-03-2006, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I'm guessing Beyer didn't care to watch any of CQs races, when he made jaw-dropping, push-buttom moves completely out of character for a 2-yo.

And he said his win in the Hopeful was only because he had 4 speed horses?
Well Andy, look at this field.
Stormello, Pegasus Wind, Scat Daddy, Principle Secret, UD Ghetto, King of the Roxy...they are going to be absolutely flying early.
I think the race sets up perfect for him, I love the prep on the polytrack, and I love Gomez on board. If he doesn't finish in the top 2, then I'll have to agree that he may just be a one-turn sprinter, but for now, I'm betting he's the real deal.

Not just beyer. Many aren't impressed with him. His jaw dropping push button moves weren't really that draw dropping. It was more a result of him passing tired horses. People just don't think he is that fast. I think he could win here, but he is no derby horse. Probably will turn out to be like First Samurai and be a nice miler.

lemoncrush · #7 11-03-2006, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Revolution

Not just beyer. Many aren't impressed with him. His jaw dropping push button moves weren't really that draw dropping. It was more a result of him passing tired horses. People just don't think he is that fast. I think he could win here, but he is no derby horse. Probably will turn out to be like First Samurai and be a nice miler.

The move he made in his 2nd race at Churchill was something to see. He looked totally beat, and then accelerated to the rail and won easy.
I remember seeing Bejarano smiling and shaking his head in the winnner's circle like he couldn't believe what the horse just did.

I haven't been watching Breeders Cup races for as long as many on here, but the Juvy seems to often be won by horses coming off the pace (at least recently with Stevie, Wilko, Action this Day, etc..)
That being said, I'm also using Street Sense, Great Hunter and CP west, who should all be closer to the pace than CQ.

zippyneedsawin · #8 11-03-2006, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Revolution

Circular Quay is very beatable. He has been getting bashed all over the place.

Andy Beyer absolutely badmouthed the horse, and while beyer is not great at picking winners, he is usually very good at saying who will not win.

Q: What is your take in the juvenile.. Will CQ be to far back to take it

ANDY_BEYER: I think the relevant question is: Is he good enough to take it? My answer is no. I loathe him. His one good figure, in the Hopeful Stakes, came in a race where he got the absolutely perfect setup as the lone closer in a five-horse field with four other speed horses. I don't put any stockin the Polytrack race, but he was beaten at Keeneland even though Great Hunter ran into significant trouble. I think he's a closing sprinter--and not a particularly great one at that.

Well, that cinches it.. CQ is now a LOCK to win the race!

Revolution · #9 11-03-2006, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Well, that cinches it.. CQ is now a LOCK to win the race!

Pletcher just said on the radio that his best hand is the one he has in the Juvenile. So either Scat Daddy and CQ is probably your winner. I like Scat Daddy here, but I can see CQ at 8.5f, but not at 10f in the spring.

SniperSB23 · #10 11-03-2006, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Revolution

Pletcher just said on the radio that his best hand is the one he has in the Juvenile. So either Scat Daddy and CQ is probably your winner. I like Scat Daddy here, but I can see CQ at 8.5f, but not at 10f in the spring.

I do like Pletcher's chances in the Juvenile but not with Scat Daddy or Circular Quay. The one who has a big shot for him is King of the Roxy.

SCUDSBROTHER · #11 11-03-2006, 03:34 PM

PLETCHER said yesterday that Scat Daddy is crying out for 2 turns.I think you can make a good case for atleast 5 in here.I don't think P.Secret or C.Q. are crying out for 2 turns.They are both nice horses though,and would keep me from playing a large amount on somebody else.I think the Lukas horse may be better than he has shown.All those "best of day" works done while breezing at Churchill shows me he likes this place.Also,I'd like to know why Luzzi waited so long to use the whip in the Champagne.He looks behind him at the top of the stretch,and sees 2 horses making runs,but just hand rides until they arrive on the seen.If he is a length or 2 clear at the top of the stretch tomorrow,look for Luzzi to find that whip and (as Lukas says) "whip him everywhere that there is hair." I would like him more if he had gotten a better post.I will use Scat Daddy/P Wind,but it is not a race I am counting the hours for.I mean,Scat won't be paying much.Same constant problem with almost every Pletcher winner.

Thunder Gulch · #12 11-03-2006, 03:40 PM

Re: Quay...opinions differ wildly on this one. As mentioned, Beyer hates him, but Beyer's buddy Davidowitz has been raving about him for two months and is already calling him a Derby contender. We'll know more tomorrow for sure.

lemoncrush · #13 11-06-2006, 02:04 PM

Is anyone more or less impressed with CQ now?
I'm still high on him, but it's hard to tell how well he did, being he had to race so wide after he made his move.
I'm just upset that I wrote I would be using Great Hunter and Street Sense (see above) along with CQ, threw out all the speed horses, and managed to somehow miss the exacta and trifecta.

Still, I admit I like the thrill of watching a horse like CQ make his move from the back of the pack, accelerate and weave through traffic, even if it doesn't work out in the end. He was fun to watch. Plus, I like that Beyer was wrong about him...

blackthroatedwind · #14 11-06-2006, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Is anyone more or less impressed with CQ now?
I'm still high on him, but it's hard to tell how well he did, being he had to race so wide after he made his move.
I'm just upset that I wrote I would be using Great Hunter and Street Sense (see above) along with CQ, threw out all the speed horses, and managed to somehow miss the exacta and trifecta.

Still, I admit I like the thrill of watching a horse like CQ make his move from the back of the pack, accelerate and weave through traffic, even if it doesn't work out in the end. He was fun to watch. Plus, I like that Beyer was wrong about him...

Beyer was wrong about him? Stop trying to steal Pillow Pants' position as board comedian.

He lost by 12 lengths.

LMFAO!

JJP · #15 11-06-2006, 02:30 PM

Street Sense ran a far superior race to CQ in the Breeders Futurity at Kee.
Street Sense ran a far superior race to CQ in the BC Juvenile.

Not even close who the superior horse is.

lemoncrush · #16 11-06-2006, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

Street Sense ran a far superior race to CQ in the Breeders Futurity at Kee.
Street Sense ran a far superior race to CQ in the BC Juvenile.

Not even close who the superior horse is.

That wasn't my point. I was high on Street Sense before the race, and am even more so now. I was talking about CQ in general. He finished second, and beat 12 others.
And Street Sense is a nice horse, but he's not 12 lengths better than every other horse in the field. I give him and Calvin Borel their due, but on a fair track, he would not have won by more than 2 or 3 lengths. Still, SS is
ultra-impressive and I look forward to seeing him race next year.

jpops757 · #17 11-06-2006, 02:50 PM

I am a CQ fan but the best horse won sat he just happened to be the 1 horse and took the shortcut. Why alwayslook for excuses the best horse won.

lemoncrush · #18 11-06-2006, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpops757

I am a CQ fan but the best horse won sat he just happened to be the 1 horse and took the shortcut. Why alwayslook for excuses the best horse won.

Again, I wasn't comparing CQ and Street Sense.
I just asked for opinions of CQ after the race had changed.
Did his performance justify him being a 2-turn horse, or did he just pass a bunch of tired horses, and be better off sticking to 1-turn races?
I'm not trying to bash Andy Beyer, but the fact that he loathed him apparently meant he didn't think he would be anywhere near hitting the board.

zippyneedsawin · #19 11-06-2006, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Beyer was wrong about him? Stop trying to steal Pillow Pants' position as board comedian.

He lost by 12 lengths.

LMFAO!

actually it was 10 lengths, everyone else lost by 12+ lengths.

blackthroatedwind · #20 11-06-2006, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

actually it was 10 lengths, everyone else lost by 12+ lengths.

Sorry, I actually thought it was 12. I heard it was the second largest BC margin ( to Inside Information ). That surprised me. I thought Princess Rooney won by ten.

Though, from some of the posts here, one might think Invasor won by 15.