6/24: Woodbine (4th-10th); Belmont (7th-10th)

[Kasept]

Fun day Saturday working across the country with nice P4 hits at Belmont and Churchill leading up to a thrilling Hollywood Oaks. As opposed to a week ago when I could not connect a decent price to cascades of chalk, a number of solid numbers helped make the day profitable. The Belmont late double of Zo Impressive ($14.60) in the Mother Goose and nightcap wire winner Plainview ($16.20) charged the $216 late quad while finding 7-1 Best Value tab Delaunay ($16.60) in the Kelly's Landing helped boost the afternoon and charge the $360 P4 at the Downs. Baffert derailed the Hollywood P4 try when Da Ruler found new life, but rebooting for the late P3 brought back an OK $135. The lynchpin was Mike Mitchell's stakes debuting Potesta ($9.80) coming through in just her 3rd career start in a corking Oaks win over even money Eden's Moon. Hope everybody did well and are looking forward to the Queen's Plate card at Woodbine and another interesting P4 sequence at Belmont..


WOODBINE


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: 75th My Dear, 2yo-F, 5f (.20 P4, .20 P3)

Most Likely: #6 Ju Ju Eyeballs 7-5 4th
Next Best: #7 Just Got In 2-1 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #4 Aberfoyle Mill 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Lake Dancer 3-1 2nd


5th: 59th Highlander (G2), 3+, 6f-T (.20 P3)

What do you do with Essence Hit Man? He tried this gambit off Vigil/Jacques Cartier lead up last year as well and flopped..

Best Value: #10 Surfrider 6-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Fiddlers Patriot 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Gypsy Ring 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Essence Hit Man 4-1 2nd


6th: 2nd Trillium, F&M-3+, 9f (.20 P3)

Top pair own big edge on rest..

Most Likely: #7 Upperline 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Stars to Shine 2-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Smart Penny 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Maristar 8-1 4th

.10 SUPER: 4-7 with 2-4-7-8 with 2-4-7-8 with 8 (ALL) (2x3x2x4 = 48 x .10 = $4.80) Paid $5.11


7th: 110th King Edward (G2), 3+, 1m-T (.20 P3)

Best Value: #4 Big Band Sound 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Trend 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Hollinger 2-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 3-4-6-7
5: 1-5/SCR-7-9-10
6: 2-4-7
7: 4-5-6

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .40 = $57.60 ($28.80 for .20)


8th: 59th Singspiel (G3), 3+, 12f-T (.20 P3)

As discussed on ATR and "Loose on the Lead", City Wolf is half to Ghostzapper and City Zip and well worth a spin moving to grass and stretching out at a big price..

Best Value: #2 City Wolf 20-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Simmard 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Musketier 5-2 WON ($7.90)
Super Add: #7 Cognashene 6-1 3rd


9th: ON-ALW/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (.20 P4, .20 P3)

Very tough group looking for a 2nd win..

Most Likely: #4 Guest Appearing 5-2 4th-DH
Best Value: #10 High Jumper 8-1 8th
Next Best: #1e Brnjas entry 4-1 2nd/3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Egbert Jester 6-1 4th-DH


10th: ON-Queen's Plate, 3yo. 10f (.20 P3)

Wide open edition of the Plate. Using 2 of Casse's 3 as he appears poised for his first win in this historic event and I'll include the OK fave and savvy Josie Carroll..

Best Value: #7 Golden Ridge 6-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Strait of Dover 3-1 WON ($9.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Dixie Strike 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Wilcox 20-1 11th



BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Faves solid though Castellano will need to work out a trip on Saratoga Bound. 12-1 Gypsy Preacher (SCR'd) has potential to put a charge into things returning to try two back and after failed hood expirement..

Most Likely: #11 Saratoga Bound 3-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Speedy's Gal 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #5 Dattts Appealing 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 La Bilios 8-1 2nd


8th: 35th Bouwerie-NY, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

A lot of speed signed on and Lemon Splendor feels right as possible off pace upsetter. Problem may be that Sacred Success was able to rate in open company ALW placement two back and may be plenty tough enough..

Most Likely: #6 Sacred Success 2-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Lemon Splendor 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1e Broman entry 5-1 WON ($12.60)/7th
Exotics Use: #4 Harbor Mist 4-1 3rd


9th: 33rd Mike Lee-NY, 3yo, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Brigand 3-5 2nd
Next Best: #1e Flying Zee entry 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Quiet Favorite 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Willy Beamin 4-1 WON ($7.00)


10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #16 Two Moons 5-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Miss Woods 12-1 7th
Next Best: #15 Roman Renegade 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Aba Dabbler 6-1 9th


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-11
8: 1-4-6-7
9: 3
10: 2-3-4-9-10-12-15-16

3x4x1x8 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[santana]

It doesnt look as if TwinSpires is letting us play a pik 4 at Woodbine....not yet anyway. Or pik 3s as advertised.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by santana

It doesnt look as if TwinSpires is letting us play a pik 4 at Woodbine....not yet anyway. Or pik 3s as advertised.

For some unexplained (to me) reason, Woodbine does not offer early multi-race wagers on any ADW. But they will be available closer to the 1st race post time.

Don't know why, but it's been that way for a while, or longer.

[santana]

Originally Posted by golfer

For some unexplained (to me) reason, Woodbine does not offer early multi-race wagers on any ADW. But they will be available closer to the 1st race post time.

Don't know why, but it's been that way for a while, or longer.

Thanks for the info......

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

Looks like Brigand stays in the Mike Lee..

[Kasept]

WO SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Great job by hockey liking and tweeting the 17-1 Highlander winner Smokey Fire. Jerry Brown pushed him too on TG on back figs and his previous strong effort off a 7 mo. layoff in '10.

Steve what was Pizarro doing with the 4 so close to the pace? Is it because I had over $100 on him? I'd really like to know what the f.uck he or the trainer was thinking. Whoever made the call to ride the pace is a f.ucking idiot.

Why is this happening so often? Do they not realize the horse is a closer? Sick of it. I wish we could take the human element out of the game. Only useless eaters make decisions that dumb.

[Kasept]

I don't know Coach. That was tough to swallow. Needed him up badly too.

[mclem0822]

Great race, Musketier and Simmard throwing it down!

[ScottJ]

Someday, I am going to remember that the 1 1/16 (T) at Belmont on the Inner is a death trap to horses outside the six post. Fell prey to Saratoga Bound (easy positioning early) and longshot Uptown Girl (looking for a move off the last speedy race at 20-1).

None of this really matters though which is the only consolation that I get from Belmont's seventh : When Speedy's Gal takes the race at 5-2 sporting a 1-for-18 lifetime and 0-for-two-years, it is clear that I need a new racing form.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Steve what was Pizarro doing with the 4 so close to the pace? Is it because I had over $100 on him? I'd really like to know what the f.uck he or the trainer was thinking. Whoever made the call to ride the pace is a f.ucking idiot.

Why is this happening so often? Do they not realize the horse is a closer? Sick of it. I wish we could take the human element out of the game. Only useless eaters make decisions that dumb.

Coach.. Watching that 24-1 shot wire the ALW 9th, maybe they got the feeling that you have to be on the front end?

[Alabama Stakes]

that hoss was 48=1 last time in a race they gave him, he opens 14=1 today in that giant field, trainer won 4 times with this same pattern...wish i knew there was no.50 cent pick 4's

[Kasept]

2:01.4 track record for the Plate winner Strait of Dover. The fillies ran 2-3. Big try by the WO Oaks winner too Irish Mission to be 2nd.

[Kasept]

$40k C/O Wednesday