8/9: Saratoga (Day 18; Statue of Liberty)

[Kasept]

While Saratoga continued to be a daily minefield where quality hits must be mined patiently, Wednesday's carryover sequence at Del Mar proved readily accessible and profitable. As discussed on ATR, the Del Mar card was the preference of the summer circuits Wednesday and while 4 of 6 attacking the $2,000,000 pool at La Jolla, I mashed the $563 P4 and an additional $300 in P3 spins. As tough as the Spa slates have been, it felt good to cash early and often at DMR. The P6 paid nearly $15,000 and leaving 5th race third tab Brooklyn Rose out off the play and relying too heavily on Unusual Jazz in the 6th doomed the attempt. Still, the foray westward was a nice boost to the season's bankroll after a steady leaking of funds at the Spa.

The Saratoga action again featured a few spots where an odd horse stymied a sequence or a single placing with a price play meant the difference between agony and ecstacy. Among the frustrators was Merrill Scherer getting his first Spa session score with curious Do I Do in the 4th and marginal turfer Sportswriter running down King Kreesa in the Cab Calloway. Nelson Avenue was a dreamy 26-1 in the 7th and needed only hold 2nd to provide a big exotics hit, but the one-paced longshot settled for 3rd. I bet $20 to win on Nelson Avenue and exacta backwheeled him with 5 others, but this was a spot where the inverted tri key concept flashed its' huge potential. With $40 invested, just another $20 provides 3rd choice Alarmed Ndangerous and 2nd choice Why Not Whisky combining with Nelson Avenue for a momentum-changer $978 triple ($1). Arrgh.

Finally in the 10th, Griffin Rock and Wilmer Garcia delivered another good effort falling a neck short of Cytherean. Already unhappy that Toy Cannon had to miss a chance to run Wednesday, I left Saratoga plenty miffed. Luckily Del Mar raised the spirits as we head toward the weekend. Hope everyone did well somewhere during the long day!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: Mrs. Phipps, F&M-4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Euro Power 8-1 7th
Next Best: #1e Fout entry 5-2 3rd/9th
Exotics Use: #4 Sweet Shani 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Eastern Starlett 10-1 8th


2nd:MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Zayat homebred won MCLM staggerfest yesterday and Starlight has been productive with its' babies since meet broke from gate..

Most Likely: #7 All Keyed Up 5-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Yankee Mickey 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Jacksalildevil 4-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Summer Revival 3-1 2nd


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD)

As mentioned on ATR & twitter, FTS ("first time start") High Five Again is full brother of Awesome Feather; Royal Art is half to Rattlesnake Bridge..

Most Likely: #3 Overanalyze 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #5 High Five Again 3-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Royal Art 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Nevada 7-2 2nd


4th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Good tough group..

Most Likely: #2 Flying Pegasus 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Megalith 5-1 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Madman Diaries 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Kind Regards 12-1 7th-DNF


5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

As mentioned, Endorphins Fly is FTS and first foal to make the races from Mrs. Weber's My Typhoon, MG1W daughter of Arc heroine and legendary broodmare Urban Sea (Sea the Stars, Galileo, Black Sam Bellamy, et al..)

Most Likely: #4 Sayaad 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Endorphins Fly 15-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Asunder 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Jump for Kitten 4-1 WON ($6.60)


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-7
3: 1-3-5-6
4: 2-5-8
5: 4-5-6-7

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

8yo Vanquisher may be getting long in the tooth but any of his good races only back to May can win this at a square number..

Best Value: #4 Vanquisher 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Veiled Prophet 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Concert Stage 2-1 WON ($4:30)
Super Add: #9 Tapanna 8-1 5th


7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Richbelle 3-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Dorothy's Spirit 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Stormy Beauty 7-2 WON ($8.10)
Super Add: #2 Lady Lizzy 6-1 2nd


8th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Readtheprospectus 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Downgoesfrazier 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Pearl of Wisdom 2-1 WON ($6.10)
Exotics Use: #1 Papa Tom 15-1 2nd


9th: NYSS-Statue of Liberty, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (DD)

Would love to reach for prices but the pace scenario favors favorite #10 I Bet Toni Knows (2-1). Simply taking the damsels from the Cupecoy's Joy might be the best approach here..

Most Likely: #10 Late SCR
Best Value: #8 Mah Jong Maddnes 8-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Why Take a Chance 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Manero 5-1 2nd


10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #8 All Zipped Up 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Rally Point 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Ambit 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Rover 7-2 5th


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-5-6-11
8: 2-3-6
9: 10/Late SCR
10: 1-3-4-5-6-7-8-9

4x3x1x8 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Good grief..

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Good grief..

Of course the 1 goes favored by a few grand over the 4.

[Fulla Sheets]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Good grief..

We are in the same boat Steve. I thought I saw My Jopia as the post time favorite when they were set to go, only to go back after the race to see Why Take a Chance had $5000 more. Very frustrating.

[golfer]

They scratch the favorite at the gate, but don't give people any time to adjust their bets?

[Kasept]

I don't get disgusted too often, but that was a pretty sickening scenario. P4 paid $2,550.

[Kasept]

$53k C/O FRIDAY

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I don't get disgusted too often, but that was a pretty sickening scenario. P4 paid $2,550.

It was still a great play. Just unlucky as hell. I feel that way this meet too. It's maddening.

[NoLuvForPletch]

The pick 4 would have paid significantly less had all of the 10's money gone to the 4. The bigger question is how the hell did the 5 win the finale?

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I don't get disgusted too often, but that was a pretty sickening scenario. P4 paid $2,550.

Tough break, Steve. I think this meet has tested all of our mettle thus far.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

The pick 4 would have paid significantly less had all of the 10's money gone to the 4. The bigger question is how the hell did the 5 win the finale?

He had two efforts last summer good enough to win this. Unfortunately he had run 4 straight non-competitive turf races since then.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

The pick 4 would have paid significantly less had all of the 10's money gone to the 4. The bigger question is how the hell did the 5 win the finale?

Would have paid less with a win by her too, but I just wanted Toni Knows to run.

As for Warrior Up, she had back figs good enough and was within 2-3 lengths of the major players on current form. Plus, as I've been saying since his eye-opening effort on Majestic Raffy, Wilmer Garcia is very good. That's as valuable a 7# as you'll see.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by arizonadave

I have given up on P4s at Saratoga for now, but used your numbers for two pick 3s. Got back $177 with the scratch of the 10. This game just drives me crazy. Thanks Steve.

'welcome Dave. And you're right. Have been talking regularly on ATR about pairing down plays to lower the degrees of difficulty: Tris if you're normally a Super player; P3's/DD's if you're a P4 player. I've been playing more Doubles than I ever have for instance.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Would have paid less with a win by her too, but I just wanted Toni Knows to run.

As for Warrior Up, she had back figs good enough and was within 2-3 lengths of the major players on current form. Plus, as I've been saying since his eye-opening effort on Majestic Raffy, Wilmer Garcia is very good. That's as valuable a 7# as you'll see.

It is terrible that Toni Knows had to scratch. There are few things worse as an owner than to have your horse scratch AT THE GATE! As for the 5, I am all for looking back, but it has been over a year since this particular hose had run a competitive race.