8/13: Saratoga (Day 22; Coronation Cup)

[Kasept]

Weird Sunday at the Spa with a big speed track through the first 6 races on the card before a strong sequence in races 7-11. The 90+ minutes between the 6th and 9th -- when the slate's 2 turf events were run -- gave Glen Kozak and his team a chance to fluff the main strip that had been hard-packed for 2 days of rain into Sunday and the 9th-11th provided more even terms for runners. An enormous crowd turned out for the picnic blanket giveaway and seemed to have a great time. I had less of a great time seeing momentum quashed repeatedly and a loss of $300+ resulted despite some P3 and triple hits. I was particularly clobbered by the rough voyage and bad behavior of Heart of Destiny in the 8th when plunging heavily on her nose and through her in exotics. Under a consistently shaky Edgar Prado and shuffled back when the serious running started, she appeared poised for a surge to the front midstretch when she attempted to lug in midstretch. By the time Prado got her straightened out, there was nothing left but a non-threatening placement behind the top pair. Next time, as she may try the Riskaverse at the end of the month. Hope everyone did OK. Good Monday card.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Police Chatter 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Buckeye Heart 5-1 WON ($9.10)
Next Best: #5 Basalt 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 A Boy Named Em 6-1 2nd


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 La Java 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Grand Lely Drive 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Riptherubberoff 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Jerusalem Stone 8-1 5th


3rd: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Odd assembly..

Most Likely: #3 Saxaphone Len 2-1 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #6 Good Karma 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Roaring Conquest 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Good Law 6-1 4th


4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Hooligan's Delight 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Next Question 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Petey Cramer 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Synthesizer 12-1 WON ($40.80)


5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Good race. Figure Ramon can work a trip from the #10 with King David. Couple of prices to play with after that..

Most Likely: #10 King David 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Knock Rock 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Manx 15-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Adios Nardo 3-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 7
3: 1-2-3-4-5-6
4: 1-4-5
5: 4-5-7-10

1x6x3x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)


6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Primal Baby 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #5 Roman Renegade 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 No Three Words 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Coast of Sangria 12-1 6th


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Jonata 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Dancing for Glory 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Coconut Shrimp 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #1 Tie Dye 12-1 8th


8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 16f (P3, DD)

Not a lot of trends to look for in 2 mile races. In case you're wondering, the track record is 3:26.0 held by James Boswell from 8/11/83..

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Ea 3-1 WON ($4.70)/3rd
Best Value: #4 Tap Attack 20-1 4th (3rd for wagering)
Next Best: #3 Sensor 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sumo 7-2 DNF


9th: 1st Coronation Cup, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Sensible Lady 3-1 WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #7 Spun Cap 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Sweet Cat 7-2 6th
Best Value: #5 Quick Flip 15-1 8th


10th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT

Best Value: #10 Vee One Rotate 12-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Space Race 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Magical Season 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Late Starter 6-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-7-8
8: 1-3-4-6
9: 2-4-7
10: 6-8-10

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[pointman]

I think Primal Baby is very vulnerable in the 6th, she had every opportunity to get by the winner in her last race and just refused to do so.

[Arletta]

Steve, is there a likeable formulator stat your seeing with the 4 horse in the 8th? I have looked at that one over and over and I just don't see what there is to like.. Even at 20-1.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Arletta

Steve, is there a likeable formulator stat your seeing with the 4 horse in the 8th? I have looked at that one over and over and I just don't see what there is to like.. Even at 20-1.

Guesswork at the price on horse with breeding for endurance being by Tapit and out of the Victory Gallop mare. Seemed to appreciate the stretch to 9f last time and that 7# break with Garcia is not insignificant.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Arletta

Steve, is there a likeable formulator stat your seeing with the 4 horse in the 8th? I have looked at that one over and over and I just don't see what there is to like.. Even at 20-1.

It's a 2 mile race. The prior PP's are not as relevant as which horse is most likely to be the last one to stop running which the best guesswork comes from breeding.

[Kasept]

Some performance in the stake by Tim Salzman's filly Sensible Lady. Smart for Perez to simply circumnavigate the field.

[ADJMK]

http://www.drf.com/news/saratoga-ste...-early-mistake

and here I was cursing my IP provider for shutting me out. At least he saved me money but how much handle did he cost NYRA

[rpncaine]

Same thing happened to me...I thought it was Twinspires.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by rpncaine

Same thing happened to me...I thought it was Twinspires.

Originally Posted by ADJMK

http://www.drf.com/news/saratoga-ste...-early-mistake

and here I was cursing my IP provider for shutting me out. At least he saved me money but how much handle did he cost NYRA

My buddy Dr. Bizjian came back from trying to bet the 9th with Tina and said the machines had locked out early... Pretty ridiculous performance by Donofrio, the NYS RWB's rep in the steward's stand.

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

My buddy Dr. Bizjian came back from trying to bet the 9th with Tina and said the machines had locked out early... Pretty ridiculous performance by Donofrio, the NYS RWB's rep in the steward's stand.

Hey Steve this could be a segment for the show. Have someone come on to explain the procedure and how this could happened to add fodder to the conspiracy theorists.