9/2: Saratoga (Spinaway, Saranac); Del Mar (DMR Derby, $182k C/O)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Serious set to start the afternoon and if you're unconvinced about Senior Pride stretching back out to a 9th panel, then it gets pretty open..

Best Value: #2 Most Happy Fella 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Seniors Pride 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Bellamy Brew 5-1 WON ($9.30)
Super Add: #1 Grandpa Len 8-1 5th


2nd: MSW, 32yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Bit of a non-decript group of baby girls..

Most Likely: #7 Liquid Lunch 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Cue the Moon 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #5 Lucky Friend 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Madgi 4-1 3rd


3rd: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Remember that these state bred $20k maiden events have produced notoriously quixotic results..

Best Value: #2 Cameron Canyon 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Charging Order 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 U Whippersnapper 8-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Keyaly 15-1 3rd


4th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Espiritu Libre is a half brother to Dale Bennett's rock solid grass performer Bizzee Mizzee and that may be enough of an indication that he takes to the lawn to gain an endorsement against a modest group..

Best Value: #2 Espiritu Libre 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Native Wave 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Fort Boonesborough 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Barrymore 4-1 5th


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 My Sweet Candy 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #3 Lady Lizzy 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Dorothy's Spirit 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Still Shea to Me 15-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-5-7
3: 2-6-7
4: 2-3-4
5: 2-3-7-11

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Ausable Chasm gets to run in here and she's badly up against it versus a number of class droppers, but if 54-1 Greeley's Law can win one of these as he did Saturday, I guess anything is possible..

Most Likely: #7 Tanglewood Tale 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #6 World Premier 5-1 WON ($10.00)
Best Value: #13 Donnatale 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Annelle 10-1 10th


7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Really well-matched group..

Most Likely: #1 Shakeira 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #3 Inaugurate 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Steal the Dance 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Sheza Heartbreaker 15-1 8th


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Another super competitive group..

Most Likely: #2 Temper in Command 4-1 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #7 Strike Accord 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Manero 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Lady Yellow Tail 6-1 9th


9th: 105th Saranac (G3), 3yo, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

I've been an Excaper fan since last summer and Ian Black's invasion here signals belief the BCJ-T runner up to Wrote is ready for a good effort. Emma Jayne can stalk the pace and get first run on the closers..

Best Value: #5 Excaper 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Lucky Chappy 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Quick Wit 4-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Set the Sail 10-1 6th


10th: 121st Spinaway (G1), 2yo-F, 7f (DD)

Nice group of 2yo fillies here. Mott and Live Oak look to take G1's on consecutive days with Seasoned Warrior after To Honor and Serve's thrilling Woodward win Saturday but will have to upend favored Stonestreet entry to do so. Teen Pauline (Asmussen) is certain for Barbara Banke, but awaiting word on the status of the other runner, Dreaming of Julia (Pletcher) SCRATCHED..

Most Likely: #1 Teen Pauline 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #6 Seasoned Warrior 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 So Many Ways 3-1 WON ($9.80)


11th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T

Best Value: #6 Catalina Island 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Simple Exchange 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Market Princess 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Monticello Doll 20-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-5-7
9: 1-5-6-8
10: 1-3-6
11: 2-6-12

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72



DEL MAR


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: Torrey Pines, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Love me that Potesta. Will be challenged by Killer Graces though..

Most Likely: #1 Potesta 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #8 Killer Graces 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Starlight Magic 6-1 3rd
Super Add; #7 Warren's Amber 12-1 8th


6th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$182k P6 C/O starts here..

Brutally tough assignment to begin sequence with all firsters save Proctor's Procurement. Strong sire or trainer stats for the 1-2-3-8 and positive worktab notes on 6-7-9. Bro Derek is a half to Mark Valeski but Brother Derek is still looking for his first winner overall, let alone a FTS winner..

Most Likely: #7 P Three D 6-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Goldencents 8-1 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #10 Procurement 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Uno Dos Adios 3-1 5th


7th: Adoration-R, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Graser 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Miss Mittagong 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Rock and Glory 8-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Briecat 3-1 6th


8th:MSW, 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Quirky assembly including Baffert FTS Vixen, a half to Brass Hat! Also on a sibling note, Scarlet Strike -- half to Visionaire -- comes back in here too..

Best Value: #8 Catrageous 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Vixen 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Sheaparoux 3-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Spellbound 12-1 6th


9th: Del Mar Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P3, DD)

No real stars, just solid, well matched talent. Graham Motion could salvage what has been a lost summer with a win from Howe Great..

Most Likely: #9 Smart Ellis 6-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Tones 15-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Brother Francis 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Midnight Crooner 5-1 9th


10th: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Non breathers at all in this sextet..

Most Likely: #6 Megastar 6-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #12 Dreamcatcher 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Northern Iowa 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Hyades 15-1 12th


11th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

$47k Super Hi-5 C/O here..

And an impossible group to separate to close out the card!

Most Likely: #2 Three Blondes 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Maurie's Tizzy 10-1
Next Best: #5 Miss Well Molded 9-2 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Northern Flight 10-1 4th
Super/Hi-5: #9 Vonn Nez 15-1 5th


<$200 P6 Play:

6: 1-2-7-10
7: 4
8: 2-8-9
9: 1-9
10: 4-6-12
11: 2

4x1x3x2x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-8-9
9: 1-3-7-9
10: 4-6-8-12
11: 2-5-8

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Stonestreet's Dreaming of Julia (Pletcher) does in fact SCR from Spinaway leaving entrymate Teen Pauline (Asmussen) as the focus. Baby J out too..

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[goodcopy]

Hi Steve,Hope your Saratoga was fun and profitable for you and I hope you and yours are all well!
Now the question at hand ,What is the thinking behind picking #4 Graser as a single in the 7th race @ Del Mar?
I realize that you might be busy and can't answere this while "Toga"is running but if you can or anybody reading this over worded post would answer I would appreciate it!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by goodcopy

Hi Steve,Hope your Saratoga was fun and profitable for you and I hope you and yours are all well!
Now the question at hand ,What is the thinking behind picking #4 Graser as a single in the 7th race @ Del Mar?

I realize that you might be busy and can't answere this while "Toga"is running but if you can or anybody reading this over worded post would answer I would appreciate it!

g/c,

Thought the race was very tough & I frequently like to stand somewhere like that and save multiples for spots where there are 2 or 3 clear contenders that are overwhelmingly certain to produce a winner. Graser gets Bejarano and had a workout that is enough of an indication for a big effort for me to take a chance that she comes through. We'll see shortly.

G/L with your action..