11/21: Aqueduct (4th-9th)

[Kasept]

Gratifying to catch modest P6 at Aqueduct Sunday helping punctuate a big weekend that went a long way towards balancing the ledger for recent punting. Steady leaking of air from your balloon takes all kinds of tolls and creates tangential problems. One major issue it can trigger is feeling the pinch and narrowing your budget in response. That results in missing scores that you would hit with your 'normal' bankroll approach which cascades into further frustration. As discussed after Breeders' Cup, any day can produce handsome results for horseplayers if you can afford to persevere or regroup and attack. Hope everyone did well over the weekend. Thanksgiving Holiday starts today and a 5 day cornucopia of opportunity awaits!


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: Stardusk, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Pianist obviously the horse to beat but she's not head and shoulders better than Channel Lady. Thunderous Lady gets Lezcano and isn't impossible if able to pick up a 2-3 lengths. Baffle Me lept forward with turf move winning the Banner Gala but won't be left alone on the front end today..

Most Likely: #3 Pianist 4-5 4th
Next Best: #7 Channel Lady 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Best Value: #6 Thunderous Lady 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Baffle Me 8-1 7th


5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 2-1 WON/3rd ($6.10)
Next Best: #5 Tug of War 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Ground Force 15-1 5th


6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Was ready to use Freedom Rings (12-1) with Shakeira Sunday before she scratched for this spot..

Best Value: #8 Freedom Rings 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Kibosh 3-1 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #10 Inimitable Romanee 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Late SCR


7th: S/HCP, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Competitive group and you have to weigh a comebacker like Frazil (7-2) -- best on back class -- versus lesser lights in good current form..

Best Value: #9 Take Down Two 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Frazil 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Head Heart Hoof 4-1 WON ($13.80)
Super Add: #1a Blind Hope 3-1 4th


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Big Business on some roll since escape from L.A., but notable that Rushing and Ramon side with Chad Brown and The West's Conspiracy. Souper Speedy's comeback run was solid off 11 month break..

Best Value: #4 Conspiracy 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Big Business 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Souper Speedy 3-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Last Gunfighter 4-1 WON ($13.40)


9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T

Struggled with this. Get feeling that it's more complicated than it looks..

Most Likely: #1 Colossal Gift 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #4 See Me Proud 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Commitment Letter 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Hardrocker 15-1 2nd


$36 or $72 P4 Play:

6: 1-8-10
7: 1-4-9-10
8: 3-4
9: 1-4-9 (2-6-10)

3x4x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[freddymo]

I find your comments today very insightful. Do you suggest people who play all of plays daily, start with a designated Bank Roll? If so what would you say that should be based on your typical 300.00 in daily plays? It's seems as through it should be not less then 30 days or 9k. Up until last week terrific PIK 6 score if my math is correct your vertical plays since SPA were in at least 3/4's thru that 9k theoretical BR. When you see your Vertical plays in a slump do you co mingle your major horizontal scores into the vertical mix? Obviously you have had so many wonderful horizontal winners it makes it easier on the pocket book to continue the vertical fight.. Which leads me to a more interesting question, wouldn't you recommend NOT playing pik 6's unless there is significant carry over money or huge handle days with tons of stupid money being bet. Also what do you think the payout would have been on your Pik 6 last week if there was no carry money?

This is the stuff that makes DT the best horse board!!!

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I find your comments today very insightful. Do you suggest people who play all of plays daily, start with a designated Bank Roll? If so what would you say that should be based on your typical 300.00 in daily plays? It's seems as through it should be not less then 30 days or 9k. Up until last week terrific PIK 6 score if my math is correct your vertical plays since SPA were in at least 3/4's thru that 9k theoretical BR. When you see your Vertical plays in a slump do you co mingle your major horizontal scores into the vertical mix? Obviously you have had so many wonderful horizontal winners it makes it easier on the pocket book to continue the vertical fight.. Which leads me to a more interesting question, wouldn't you recommend NOT playing pik 6's unless there is significant carry over money or huge handle days with tons of stupid money being bet. Also what do you think the payout would have been on your Pik 6 last week if there was no carry money?

This is the stuff that makes DT the best horse board!!!

Freddie..

Real quick as I'm buried with TG dinner prep for 12 coming here tomorrow...

Totally agree that C/O's are only time for middle-of-road guys like us to play P6's.. I'm not sure I've put more than 3-4 tickets in on a non-C/O other than Breeders' Cup Days. Times I thought I had a special feel for the sequence.. But for smallish money.

I'd been behind at least $5k over the last little two-plus months.. I can't tell people how to budget exactly. That's based on their own set of circumstances.