|
|
 |
|
#1
11-29-2012, 07:38 AM
|
||||
|
||||
11/29: Hollywood Park ($105k C/O)
Caught square prices Sunday at HollyPark in $19 Unstoppper Topper and $16 Unbridled Command, boosting the nice $870 P4 and closing out an action-packed Thanksgiving Holiday. Hope everyone enjoyed the extended weekend and did well. There are still leftovers remaining, (I made a Turkey Divan last night in fact), and Thursday's $105k carryover should swell past $500,000. Thoughts on the tough sequence below..
HOLLYWOOD PARK POST-SCRATCHES 3rd: CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD) $105k C/O starts here.. Very difficult start to skein with droppers, cutbackers and layoff returnees everywhere you look. Vienna's El Pitucon is the giant question having been away 2+ years. I'll let him beat me. Baltas has been sending out live horses with alacrity and turns Streets of Heaven back from 8.5f here. The last time the Street Cry gelding did this while with with Pender (April '11), he buried a similar group. The pick.. Most Likely: #9 Streets of Heaven 7-2 (A) 2nd Next Best: #1 Half Dome Dude 3-1 (B) 4th Exotics Use: #5 Cayambe 4-1 (B) WON ($11.00) Best Value: #4 Scofield Barracks 10-1 (C) 5th 4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD) When running through PP's the first time was drawn to Dynamic Diva immediately making first start for the Mitchell barn. But stats can be funny and Formulator helps you find anomolies. Mitchell is 28% ($2.44) with runners new to the barn and 30% ($2.27) stretching out to routes from sprints. Both apply with the 3yo filly he sends today, but Mitchell is shockingly 0/9 asking for added ground from those making their first start under his watch! As Casey Stengel used to say, "You could look it up". Does it mean she can't win? No. But I'm a lot less enthused than I was initially. Problematic group with half the field making big drops.. Most Likely: #1 Last Sting 7-2 (A) 4th Best Value: #2 Tweetie Pie 15-1 (B) 2nd Exotics Use: #4 Dynamic Diva 4-1 (B) 8th Super Add: #9 Katy's Kitty 4-1 (C) WON ($7.40) 5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD) Miss Communication gets back to turf which she seems to prefer, retains Talamo and owns edge on pace. First opportunity for smaller tix to single.. Most Likely: #1 Miss Communication 5-2 (A) 3rd Next Best: #7 Toluca 4-1 (B) 4th Best Value: #10 Miss Speed Dating 5-1 (C) 5th Super Add: #6 Warren's Mo Money 5-1 (C) 6th 6th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD) Dangerous older maiden set with 3 firsters (Baffert's #8 Indian Gods, Baltas' #4 Funny Man, Headley's #3 Wild Media) to balance against 5 that have already been out. Baffert also sends #1 The Brian who flopped twice at DMR after promising SA debut. Could simply be that the Street Sense colt hated the La Jolla footing. Big tickets will buy this nearly impossible affair.. Most Likely: #1 The Brain 5-2 (A) WON ($4.80) Next Best: #3 Wild Media 7-2 (A) 3rd Best Value: #2 Just Fishin 5-1 (B) 4th Exotics Use: #8 Indian Gods 3-1 (B) 2nd ALL OTHERS: 4-5/SCR-6-7 (C) 7th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD) Mamma Kimbo doesn't need lead to win and should sit ideal outside trip stalking Sister Moon.. Most Likely: #4 Mamma Kimbo 9-5 (A) 2nd Next Best: #3 Vision in Gold 2-1 (B) 6th Exotics Use: #2 Sister Moon 5-2 (C) 3rd 8th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5) Most Likely: #8 Lady Katfish 3-1 (A) 3rd Best Value: #1 Truly Beautiful 5-1 (A) 5th Next Best: #7 She's a Go Girl 4-1 (B) WON ($18.60) Exotics Use: #6 Irish Presence 6-1 (C) 2nd <$150 P6 Play: 3: 9 4: 1-2-4-8-9 5: 1 6: 1-2-3-4-5/SCR-6-7-8 7: 4 8: 1-8 1x5x1x7x1x2 = 70 x $2 = $140 <$50 P4 Play: 5: 1-7 6: 1-2-3-4-5/SCR-6-7-8 7: 3-4 8: 1-7-8 2x7x2x3 = 84 x .50 = $42 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-29-2012 at 07:13 PM. 
|
|
#3
11-29-2012, 10:59 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Stretched legs here in 37.0, 102.1 rider only leaning on this near the line for Baffert.---Grade: B- INDIAN GODS Nov 9 HOL 5 1:02.3HG M FT B- Not real fast early in 24.3 finishing steadily around the turn in 36.4, 102.2. Seems a fit.---Grade: B- INDIAN GODS Oct 22 HOL 5 1:02HG M FT B- Not real fast early in 24.2, 36.4 then finished up steady and solid going 101.4, 114.3 galloping out in 128.2. In blinkers.---Grade: B-
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
|
|
#4
11-29-2012, 11:43 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Hasn't missed a week of training since August as far back as the works show save for a 3 week break in Sept. That's a lot of patience for a soon-to-be 4yo making a career debut. Just seems something's off. The mare was a stakes winner sprinting, but ran 11th in a sprint first out(PLN #1 06/29/2003) only other foal to race is 0-5. I'm taking my chances playing against. I do like the way Prized by Buck closed late from an absolutely impossible post and considering that this is far from a stellar msw field, may make it on my tik. Personally, I wasn't crazy about the 5's last effort and took him off... I'm probably going 1,3,7 here.
|
|
#5
11-29-2012, 12:35 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
|
|
#8
11-29-2012, 05:16 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Dynamic Diva off board as Formulator Mitchell stat proves prescient. Barn now 0/10 stretching out new acquisitions..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
|
|
#10
11-29-2012, 05:43 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
|
|
#11
11-29-2012, 05:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
BHP
#5 $8 PS.. thought the nine had a chance... nice pay off wow 9 none $ 16.00 $ 189.60 + $ 173.60
|
|
#12
11-29-2012, 06:45 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
 Mike Smith apparently decided to take a nap in the stretch in the 7th... Never asked Mama Kimbo until he was already going to get beat. I've seem this movie time and time again where Baffert puts 2 in and the crazy price is the one that wins.
|
|
#13
11-29-2012, 06:59 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
P6 tix only live to 6-7-8..
6 or 7 gets whole pool: $489,908. 8 has 2 winners: $244,954.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
|
|
#14
11-29-2012, 07:04 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Holly 8..
20 wps 6.. In classic Lepar style.... wait, wait, wait.... and wait some more then make one big run at it... He had a ton of horse!
|
|
#15
11-29-2012, 11:22 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
|
Linear Mode
