Has any horse in history ever done less & was 12/1 to win the Derby two months out?

[letswastemoney]

Tiz a Minister might be interesting considering he failed on synthetic and turf for most of his career, before winning a state-bred dirt stakes race over Omega Star. Maybe Tiz a Minister is a quality dirt horse.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Who are you looking at in the field?

And given the hype and the Baffert factor, I would bet he goes off odds on.

It's a race where you have a lot of directions to look and a ton of early speed. There will certainly be no free ride on the lead this time.

This race will also be a huge test for Goldencents...who won the Delta Jackpot in a race where It'smyluckyday was wide throughout and up the track. Obviously, It'smyluckyday has improved a ton at GP since.

Salutos Amigos and Hear the Ghost are probably going to be pace casualties, but they are very interesting prospects who might have a look coming out of this race.

Even Kochees, who will be a massive longshot, his one dirt race looks real good on our numbers and he will get a lot of pace help.

This is a true test for Flashback though. He's not going to get a candy front-end trip. There might not be a high quality closer in here, so he will have to adapt accordingly.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's a race where you have a lot of directions to look and a ton of early speed. There will certainly be no free ride on the lead this time.

This race will also be a huge test for Goldencents...who won the Delta Jackpot in a race where It'smyluckyday was wide throughout and up the track. Obviously, It'smyluckyday has improved a ton at GP since.

Salutos Amigos and Hear the Ghost are probably going to be pace casualties, but they are very interesting prospects who might have a look coming out of this race.

Even Kochees, who will be a massive longshot, his one dirt race looks real good on our numbers and he will get a lot of pace help.

This is a true test for Flashback though. He's not going to get a candy front-end trip. There might not be a high quality closer in here, so he will have to adapt accordingly.

What about Omega Star? He should like the extra distance and will benefit from pace dynamics.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

What about Omega Star? He should like the extra distance and will benefit from pace dynamics.

Paul

I don't know that he's good enough, but he certainly project a perfect trip.

[santana]

I am just hoping Flashback is the real deal, just like i think he is....

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's a race where you have a lot of directions to look and a ton of early speed. There will certainly be no free ride on the lead this time.

This race will also be a huge test for Goldencents...who won the Delta Jackpot in a race where It'smyluckyday was wide throughout and up the track. Obviously, It'smyluckyday has improved a ton at GP since.

Salutos Amigos and Hear the Ghost are probably going to be pace casualties, but they are very interesting prospects who might have a look coming out of this race.

Even Kochees, who will be a massive longshot, his one dirt race looks real good on our numbers and he will get a lot of pace help.

This is a true test for Flashback though. He's not going to get a candy front-end trip. There might not be a high quality closer in here, so he will have to adapt accordingly.

Kochees adds blinkers 1st time and I think that moves him forward, energy looks good. Morning line for him is 15-1 so the price should be right.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'm not sure that it matters much, but Orb looked totally spent after the FOY. At one point it looked like he was going to fall down on the way to the winners circle.

Nice call, the day after the race Shug was on with Steve and said Orb will run forever. Trainers are wrong all the time but Shug bearly tells you he like a horse after a G3 win, if he says the horse can run all day he means it. Orb may not be good enough to win G1 races but distance isnt going to be the issue..

[Calzone Lord]

Orb fits the profile of the type of horse who finishes 3rd or 4th in the Derby.

He has never demonstrated any early speed.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb fits the profile of the type of horse who finishes 3rd or 4th in the Derby.

He has never demonstrated any early speed.

Or first in the Indiana Derby

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb fits the profile of the type of horse who finishes 3rd or 4th in the Derby.

He has never demonstrated any early speed.

Agreed, particularly in recent years. Leave him off exotics at your own peril.