|
|
 |
|
#1
04-15-2013, 08:21 PM
|
||||
|
||||
DRF: Breeze show times determine sales prices!
http://www.drf.com/news/juvenile-sal...ne-sale-prices
Not deriding Joe Nevills' piece, but is it a surprise that horses working fast mostly sell best at the shows? Has some good input from Eddie Woods and Niall Brennan rounding out the full range of elements involved in the breeze show sales. As Doug has mentioned countless times, those fast breezes -- and high priced 2yo's in training -- hardly correlate to on track success later. Have always found this to be an interesting topic. Will definitely bring it up with some appropriate visitors this week. Plenty of people here involved in the 2yo sales.. Thoughts?
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans 
|
|
#2
04-15-2013, 08:43 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
It's a hell of a lot easier to make money off of these sales on the betting end than it is the buying end. I'll have a list of my top 10 to top 20 horses to follow for betting purposes coming out of each sale. You'd be surprised at how high of a percentage of them never even make the races. If you bought all of those horses on my list, you'd be buying a lot of cripples...and some of them very expensive mid six figure ones. With a betting approach, if they don't start, you don't lose a dime. I remember when I came on ATR with Steve in the spring and summer the one year...and over the course of it, I gave out five straight 2yo debut winners...and the one who snapped the on-air streak was Christopher Paasch's Stardom Bound, who lost her debut the next day, but ended up winning the Eclipse that year. I'd go back every year and compare the ROI of them in debut races VS the ROI of them in terms of buying them to race. The former will always be profitable and the latter will always be a bloodbath. A lot of them won't make the races, and a lot of the ones who do and even debut impressively don't amount to much in the future because of stamina limitations and especially injuries. Those sales are terrible for buyers. You have to get lucky and hit a home run, or you're toast ... no matter what approach the owner takes that is the case.
|
|
#3
04-15-2013, 09:12 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
__________________
Revidere
|
|
#4
04-16-2013, 12:59 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
|
|
#5
04-16-2013, 10:06 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
I think the breeze time is an important factor but as the article says there are about 4 or 5 other factors that are just as important. The horse's pedigree, his conformation, his stride, his soundness, and his throat are all just as important.
If a horse works 9 :4/5 and he's not a good looking horse, he's not a pretty mover and he's by a below average sprint sire, he's not going to sell for big bucks. On the other hand, if a horse is by a really good sire like Bernardini or Malibu Moon, and the horse works :10 2/5, and the horse is a pretty mover, that horse will go for 5x the price of the horse who works the :9 4/5. If a horse scopes really bad, that is obviously an absolute deal breaker because if a horse can't breathe, he's not going to be able to run. He might be able to work a fast 1/8th, but that's about it. Anyway, the breeze time is important but no more important than several other factors.
|
|
#6
04-16-2013, 10:43 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I know Maker pays no attention whatsoever to the times.
I think he has bought 7 so far this year,at the 3 sales for right at a million. He is also really looking only to buy colts or fillies that he think will become routers. i watch all the breezes from the Select sales, I don't think a horse has to work 10 flat, or even 10&1 to be a top horse. I also don't see any stakes horses that work in 10&4 or 11.
|
Linear Mode
