The 4 fastest Derby paces of all-time

[Calzone Lord]

2000: Half mile in 44.86 seconds

Eight different horses were positioned within less than 10 lengths of that pace.





Congaree won the "race within the race" by falling only 4.75 lengths short to Monarchos and Invisible Ink. Point Given finished 2nd, losing by only 11.5 lengths. Express Tour finished 3rd beaten 14+ lengths. Everyone else was defeated by 20 lengths or more.


Congaree, who soundly defeated Monarchos in the Wood Memorial, is not in the Hall of Fame, but he did perform at a Hall Of Fame caliber level for an entire 12 months stretch:




Point Given, who is in the Hall of Fame (much to the chagrin of Pat Cummings) raced four more times, and swept the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and Travers. He won the Belmont by more than 12 lengths over Monarchos and Invisible Ink. He won the Haskell in a bar shoe. He won the Travers in a bar shoe over a game E Dubai (sire of Fort Larned)

Express Tour, who finished 14+ lengths behind Monarchos, had just defeated Street Cry and Lido Palace in Dubai in his prior start. Two starts later, he won the Gr 2 Jerome by 5.5 lengths at 8/1 odds.

Monarchos and Invisible Ink never won another stakes race of any kind. 4th place finisher Thunder Blitz lost his next seven races, including the West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer Park and three different N2X allowance races.



2013: Half mile in 45.33 seconds

This time, again, Eight different horses were positioned within less than 10 lengths of that pace.

Here's how all 8 of them performed:



Time will tell the rest.



1986: Half mile in 45 1/5

I don't have the cooler, more modern looking charts for the 80's races, but, according to the official chart, five different horses were positioned within less than 10 lengths of the pace.




Of those five, the horse with the best result was Snow Chief, who finished 11th beaten only 19.5 lengths by last-to-first winner Ferdinand.

In his very next start, Snow Chief won the Preakness by 4 lengths over Ferdinand. Broad Brush finished a soundly beaten 3rd.

Snow Chief won the $1 million Jersey Derby over Mogambo and Tasso at 1 1/4 miles in his next start after the Preakness. He was named that years champion 3-year-old despite his 19.5 length Derby defeat.

[Calzone Lord]

1981: Half Mile in 45 1/5

Here are the top 11 finishers that year:



Only Bold Ego was anywhere near the pace. He was 2nd after a half mile and finished up 10th beaten more than 11 lengths by winner Pleasant Colony.

In his next start, he finished 2nd to Pleasant Colony in the Preakness, and was beaten less than a length.

Splendid Spruce, positioned 9th out of 21 after a half mile, was the next closest to the pace. He had won the Santa Anita Derby in his previous start, and he won the Grade 2 Mervin Leroy at Hollywood Park three weeks later.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

1981: Half Mile in 45 1/5

Here are the top 11 finishers that year:



Only Bold Ego was anywhere near the pace. He was 2nd after a half mile and finished up 10th beaten more than 11 lengths by winner Pleasant Colony.

In his next start, he finished 2nd to Pleasant Colony in the Preakness, and was beaten less than a length.

Splendid Spruce, positioned 9th out of 21 after a half mile, was the next closest to the pace. He had won the Santa Anita Derby in his previous start, and he won the Grade 2 Mervin Leroy at Hollywood Park three weeks later.

Many of us still can't believe we lost that bet on Bold Ego in the Preakness.

[Calzone Lord]

I was still months from being born.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I was still months from being born.

That's just one of the reasons they are considered the good old days.

[10 pnt move up]

I apply this method of handicapping to most everyday races when playing, try to make it a touch simper then trying to figure out trainer intentions, patterns, etc.

[Calzone Lord]

The 5th fastest Derby half was Spanish Chestnut 45.38 the year Giacomo won.

The 6th fastest Derby half was Bodemeister in 45.39

I'll Have Another was just 8 lengths in back of that half...so he got a little taste of it.

Dullahan and Went The Day Well could only manage a 3rd and 4th place finish despite the big pace setup.

Dullahan was 12.5 lengths back after a half mile, he finished 3rd beaten less than 2 lengths. He was 7th in the Belmont Stakes as the 5/2 post time favorite next time out.

Went The Day Well was 18.5 lengths back after a half mile, he finished 4th beaten just 2.5 lengths in the Derby.

He was 10th beaten 30 lengths at 5/1 in the Preakness to I'll Have Another and Bodemeister.

Pleasant Colony, Ferdinand, Monarchos, Giacomo, and now Orb all capitalized on the setup.

But the record of deep closers who ran well in these Derby's, but didn't win, is downright gruesome.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Pleasant Colony, Ferdinand, Monarchos, Giacomo, and now Orb all capitalized on the setup.

.

So your saving the next couple weeks to load up against Orb in Baltimore!

[Calzone Lord]

On the +20/-12 method, all of the closers in the Derby are general bet againsts.

I've gotten away from worrying so much about big races over the years, the advantage situations are more plentiful if you seek them out at tracks all over the country.

There's no way I'm betting any of the closers in the Preakness. Loading up though? With who?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

On the +20/-12 method, all of the closers in the Derby are general bet againsts.

I've gotten away from worrying so much about big races over the years, the advantage situations are more plentiful if you seek them out at tracks all over the country.

There's no way I'm betting any of the closers in the Preakness. Loading up though? With who?

It was more of a joke and a bit a play in the next two weeks about how Orb is going to be just about a cinch, when in history we hear that quite often coming into the Preakness.

I don't know if he is a cinch, race dynamics change where he is up against it and I would not be so sure he is good enough to overcome it. The "who" well, that's a bit tougher. Oxbow is the most likely horse out of the Derby run a winning type race.

[Calzone Lord]

The last time Oxbow had anything resembling a good trip, he won the Lecomte by 11.5 lengths over 2nd place finisher Golden Soul.

The same hapless Golden Soul who clunked up for 2nd in the Kentucky Derby.

I hated Oxbow's two Arkansas races though, and it's hard for me to bet on Lukas...but he would have a good look in the Preakness if horses like Goldencents, Vyjack, and Itsmyluckyday would all stay away.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

On the +20/-12 method, all of the closers in the Derby are general bet againsts.

What are referencing with the +20/-12? Pace figs?

[wac]

thats what i was thinking Calzone. i will admit that i did bet on oxbow on sat b/c i knew the 1 would be left open and the first couple of horses to his outside werent spped horses. AFter the Ark derby i knew that gary would send him unfortunatley the pace was just too much but if he backs off of him the horse is gonna get shuffled back and probably headstrong and no one wins those battles. Calzone do you think that oxbow got a perfect trip except for the fractions and that he really isnt that good or do you see better things ahead for him? i just think this horse has some ability when he can get out there and cruise and for that reason i'd love to see him SKIP the preakness and go straight to NY. just my .02

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

What are referencing with the +20/-12? Pace figs?

pace to final time ratio using Craig's figures.

[Travis Stone]

Thanks. Sorry for typo... At a ballgame on phone.

[Seattleallstar]

Oxbow looked to be sitting pretty on the rail with Stevens just waiting to hit the power button