6/23: Belmont Park ($248k C/O; 1st-9th)

Kasept · #1 06-26-2013, 06:44 AM

Sunday carryover sequence at Belmont derailed early for most when $35 Flowing Mane copped first leg. Later, Galluscio's Discreet Force ($25) ran a huge race off the 4 month break, holding safe the closing Make the Moment and clearing out remaining live tix. The result is a $248k double C/O into Wednesday's fun card which includes a single opportunity or two, an excellent overnight stake feature and several viable price plays..

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Terrific opener with 2nd & 3rd choices (Assateague & Stanwyck) no better than than the price options behind them on the ML (4-1 Puzzling, 6-1 Floral Romance, 12-1 Flower Mart)..

Best Value: #7 Flower Mart 12-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Scenario Analysis 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Floral Romance 6-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Puzzling 4-1 5th

2nd: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Will be interesting to see how aggressive Castellano is out of the gate with Mister Pippit versus Prado & Film Shot. There's virtually no pace here and Film Shot will wire if unchallenged..

Most Likely: #6 Film Shot 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Finale 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Minister Colin 12-1 WON ($23.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Mister Pippit 3-1 4th

3rd: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Logan Street SCR
Best Value: #1 Bundestag SCR
Next Best: #6 Liquidity Trap 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Northern Tripp 8-1 3rd

4th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$248k Double P6 C/O starts here..

Start of the P6 and expect many will lean heavily on Cay to Pomeroy, but Clement pace-pressing maidenbreaker Longfor the City and Levine's late-running Crushin Rock both offer serious threats. Would have to think that bug Franco on King Keene rides hard from the gate pressuring Cay to Pomeroy early and Loongfor the City can take his position up close. Dee Tee's Corybant entered here with nothing else in the condition book or overnight. Gelding has worked his way back from a pesky hoof infection in March and is ready for a race. Doing great but even best seems only enough for minor award, though Ortiz could sit a nice trip 4th early and hope for a pace scrum and collapse in front of him..

Best Value: #6 Crushin Rock 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Cay to Pomeroy 7-5 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Longfor the City 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #5 Corybant 20-1 5th

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Another spot where many tickets will concede to 3-5 Crackerjack Jones, but as much as you respect Hushion, it might not be that simple with Greeley Pack, Thnxtomyuncle and Sunnysider all viable alternatives..

Most Likely: #8 Crackerjack Jones 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #4 Greeley Pack 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Thnxtomyuncle 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sunnysider 8-1 4th

<$25 P4 Play:

2: 3-6
3: 1/SCR-4-6-7/SCR
4: 1-3-6
5: 4-8

2x2x3x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Faves are rock solid but a number of challengers have puncher's chances..

Most Likely: #1 Lady's Lunar Luck 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Schillerette 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Sally's Dream 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Wholelottashakin 5-1 WON ($8.90)

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Perhaps the toughest race in the play with 5-6 of these absolutely eligible for laurels. Mess in a Dress is 10-1 and has one turn/main track efforts that win this. Delightful Dawn off the claim, E Z Passer on the drop, Jolienne, Warrior Marie and Chance Encounter all possible. Use as many as you can afford..

Best Value: #3 Mess in a Dress 10-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Delightful Dawn 7-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Chance Encounter 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Jolienne 4-1 4th

8th: Lion Cavern, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Compact field of fast, veteran animals and it should be interesting to see how they line up out of the gate with only Strapping Groom a natural 'on the lead' runner. That said, doubt that he's left alone however with many possessing tactical foot. Saturday's Charm and Hardened Wildcat own class edges to me and have opportunities for stalking and closing voyages respectively. Terrific group and a fascinating event where the jocks impact decision more than usual..

Best Value: #5 Saturday's Charm 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Hardened Wildcat 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Big Business 5-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Strapping Groom 5-1 WON ($11.40)

9th: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 6f-IT

Weak set includes two droppers from state bred MSW company (Poppy's Watching, Antone Suavey) and a hodgepodge of misfits, ne'er do wells and what-not..

Most Likely: #6 Poppy's Watching 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Antone Suavey 3-1 WON ($8.90)
Best Value: #9 Go to the Net 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Slimshady 5-1 2nd

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-6
5: 8
6: 1-6
7: 3-5-10
8: 2-5-6
9: 6-10

2x1x2x3x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-6
7: 3-5-10
8: 2-5-6
9: 1-6-9-10

2x3x3x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve