7/28: Saratoga (Day 9-Amsterdam; $98k C/O)

Kasept · #1 07-28-2013, 07:06 AM

Beautiful day at the Spa Saturday and a great afternoon of action on the ovals. We saw a Belmont winner follow up successfully, something that few others have in recent memory, as well as upset thrillers in the Prioress and Diana. Palace Malice was sharp and convincing in his follow up to the Belmont, while Moreno supported his Dwyer effort admirably. Will Take Charge, and to a lesser extent Bashaar, did well to close on a strip that was very kind to the speed by that point of the day. Second choice Mylute was awful, never mounting a run.

Laughing was one of the day's pluses on the capping front as Alan Goldberg and Rich Santulli were rewarded with a G1 win with the 5yo mare who was indomitable on the lead under Jose Lezcano. The hard to pass mare buried Centre Court and had enough left in the stretch to turn back Dream Peace, getting the last three-eighths in a stunning :34.4.

Went in to the Prioress eager to beat Kauai Katie and appeared to have done it with Wildcat Lily until George Weaver's Lighthouse Bay slipped through on the rail courtesy of a terrific ride by Joe Rocco Jr. The G1 was Weaver's first on U.S. soil, his only other with the same client, the Pollard's Richlyn Farm and their Saratoga County in Dubai in the 2005 Golden Shaheen. While the winner's effort was admirable, Wildcat Lily's try was too good to lose. Manny Azpurua's Calder/Gulfstream-based filly went :22.1, :22.4, :24.2 (:12/:12.2), rebuffing every challenge. She'll come back to New York to try the Test.

It wasn't much of a day at the windows overall, as Lighthouse Bay, Plainview and Richmond County all broke up momentum on multis. Hope everyone did OK. Carryover of nearly $100k on the very tricky Sunday card. Haskell and its' supporting slate on the Jersey Shore today...

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

WITH LIGHT RAIN EARLIER, MAIN WAS SEALED; COULD YIELD TO SPEED

1st: Sir Cat, 3yo, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Joha may benefit from speed-aiding lawn, but I think he's a play-against..

Best Value: #2 Bellarmine 6-1: MDN break at KEE; Turf should work.. 4th
Next Best: #6 Play It Loud 5-2: Strong return in G3 Hill Prince last.. 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Winning Cause 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Super Add: #3 One More Cat 10-1 3rd

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Turf babies and as usual, a bit of a guessing game. Similar heat for boys Saturday produced Stall's 2nd out winner Base Case Scenario, McPeek's hype-heavy Stroll to Victory and well meant C. Brown-Ramsey Kitten. Not hard to approach this with same kind of runners..

Most Likely: #1 Macaroon 5-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Granny Mc's Kitten 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Rau Breck 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Murmure 7-2 7th

3rd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Terrific betting affair. Enchanting Lisa (Wise Dan/Successful Dan half sis) is going to be heavily bet from difficult post..

Most Likely: #4 Riolama 4-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Town Flirt 15-1 9th
Next Best: #1e Pompa ownership entry 7-2 2nd/4th
Exotics Use: #9 Enchanting Lisa 2-1 3rd

4th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

What to do with Repole's $350k yearling buy fiasco So Outspoken being given away here and trying dirt first time?

Best Value: #7 Let the Cat Out 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Barrister Jim 3-1 WON ($6.30)
Exotics Use: #5 So Outspoken 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Great Call 5-1 3rd

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Impossibly deep and contentious conclusion to difficult early quad. Entire field is separated by 2-3 lengths..

Most Likely: #5 Grahamandwithers 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Oklahoma Den 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Irish Jade 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Raffies Bay 10-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Professor Chaos 20-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-10
3: 1-4-5-9
4: 4-5-7
5: 3-5-7-8-10-11

2x4x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$98k P6 C/O starts here..

First of 3 $20k claimers that make this sequence especially treacherous..

Most Likely: #8 Storm Pursuit 6-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #1 Sky Lover 2-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Turn Up the Music 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #11 Freud's Debut 6-1 6th

7th: CLM, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 August Osage 4-1 5th
Next Best: ##3 Hey Leroy 3-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Splittin' Wood 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #13 Cape Glory 5-1 12th

8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Rosie My Way 20-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Rodinia 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Time On My Hands 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Colorme Kitten 10-1 3rd

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Midnight Taboo 2-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Cary Street 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Norumbega 9-5 WON ($7.10)
Super Add: #2 Cap the Moment 15-1 5th

10th: 20th Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6.5f (DD)

Pletcher has won this twice in recent years with Quality Road and Discreetly Mine and pace scenario appears to give edge to Forty Tales here. Looks like pundits are standing against undefeated Jersey-bred Rainbow Heir, but I think the team that brought you his sire Wildcat Heir know where they are and what they're doing. Mico Margarita sat ideal trip at Summit of Speed and Wildcat Lily validated Calder form yesterday with fallant run in Prioress. Zito out for blood with Declan's Warrior who was bitterly denied in Woody Stephens. Mentor Cane has to negotiate tricky rail draw. Good edition of this King's Bishop prep..

Best Value: #6 Rainbow Heir 4-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Forty Tales 2-1 WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #3 Declan's Warrior 5-2 5th
Super Add: #7 Mico Margarita 5-1 2nd

10th: NY-MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f

Rag tag bunch with 5-6 looking more eligible than rest..

Most Likely: #9 Spin Chief 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Thingamajigger 9-2 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Without Regard 3-1 -
Best Value: #6 Purple Pico 15-1 -
Super Add: #4 My Teddy Bear 8-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 1-2-8
7: 3-4
8: 1-7-9
9: 1-4
10: 6
11: 3-9

3x2x3x2x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-7-9-12
9: 1-4
10:2-3-6
11: 3-4-6-7-9

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve