8/3: Saratoga (Day 14-Whitney); Del Mar ($619k DBL C/O)

[Kasept]

Irksome afternoon Friday when trying to save $30 cost the bankroll $973 as I fumbled the early P4. I went in to the tricky 4th aware that 6 of them could win it and not ranking Scribbling Sarah ($9.70) higher than 5th was mistake #1. But limiting the play to $45 (2x3x3x5) instead of appreciating the degree of difficulty of the race and spreading further (2x3x5x5 = $75) was the more fateful error. It was also vapid to expect that pro maiden Stock Fund was any more likely than usual to hit the wire first yesterday.

As a result, having $12.60 Sol the Freud, $16.20 Bird House and $13.80 Saturday Nthe Park went for naught in multis. Left Silverette off the turf sprint stake late P4 opener as well, but the 6th-9th quad brought back $160 which won't be missed nearly as much as the $973. Despite the P4 misses it was a solid day overall with a number of in-race successes, but can't afford to miss opportunities like Friday's. Hope everyone did OK.

It's the authentic 150th anniversary of the first race run at Saratoga today, a sesquicentennial perfectly timed for the meet's centerpiece event. The Whitney is downright terrific. Meanwhile at ol' Del Mar, a $619k double carryover has the potential to swell towards $3,000,000..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Group that is lightly raced and in/out for the most part with the PP's that typically accompany that spotty form..

Most Likely: #6 Gombey Dancer 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Googleado 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Midnite Poppa 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Slan Abhaile 7-2 WON ($8.10)


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Those with experience usually have edge anyway and the ones here that have started seem like they're quite OK..

Most Likely: #5 Tiz for Tat 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Stormy Henry 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Darley entry 4-1 WON ($10.60)/6th/7th


3rd: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Bad bunch o' coconuts. Three of them (2-5-6) add blinkers and you get the feeling with this group that whomever takes control has opportunity to take them all the way. That fact won't escape savvy Quartarolo with firster Locks of Gold who could clear with aggressive tactics from ideal outside post..

Most Likely: #1e Rodriguez entry 2-1 WON ($3.50)/5th
Best Value: #8 Locks of Gold 12-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Cebu 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 High Inflation 7-2 4th


4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Good, competitive group with nearly half (2-4-7-8-10) seemingly in range for laurels with right trip. Dual Citizen always dangerous if alone on lead..

Most Likely: #2 Formulaforsuccess 4-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Kanagaro 3-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Louie Mondello 20-1 11th
Exotics Use: #7 East of Danzig 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Quantity 7-2 WON ($9.30)


5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Not the usual late season state bred maiden affair with a number of these looking like they still have career upside. Tough end to the early quad..

Most Likely: #1 Raven Rise 5-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Let Me Be Nuts 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Done Smoking 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Carole Lee 15-1 9th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-5
3: 1-8
4: 2-4-7-8-10
5: 1-3-5-7-9

2x2x5x5 = 100 x .50 = $50


6th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Honest pace should give mid-pack types big shot..

Best Value: #4 Archer Hill 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Gimme Credit 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Papa Freud 10-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Sunlover 8-1 2nd


7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Will tab experienced Dunkin Bend but there are firsters here who can certainly score in bow. Chisolm will need help at SCR time to get in..

Most Likely: #3 Dunkin Bend 5-2 WON ($4.30)
Next Best: #9 Chisolm 2-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Bold Visionary 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Souper Lucky 4-1 3rd


8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Joes Blazing Aaron one of those horses that is always dangerous when given opp for uncontested lead. Addition of Rosario only enhances his chances on the front end mission. Price fair..

Best Value: #6 Joes Blazing Aaron 5-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Tetradrachm 3-1 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #2 Fan Base 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Admiral Perry 4-1 3rd


9th: 10th De La Rose-R, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Love this event which assembles a n interesting cast every year. Chad Brown runners are taking ridiculous amounts of money here daily, but Laugh Out Loud has class edge and gets first Lasix. If pace heats up, and it does look contentious, Ruthenia can run them down. Sweet Little Lion & Miss Montreal were a neck apart at Calder on the Summit undercard. Fun race.

Most Likely: #6 Ruthenia 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Sweet Little Lion 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Laugh Out Loud 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Miss Montreal 8-1 7th


10th: 86th Whitney H. (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Superb cast for this stand standard and key will be how heated sparring match gets between Cross Traffic & Fort Larned up front. Successful Dan, Ron the Greek and perhaps Fast Falcon will arrive late on the scene..

Most Likely: #4 Cross Traffic 5-2 WON ($9.10)
Best Value: #1 Successful Dan 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Fort Larned 7-5 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Ron the Greek 6-1 4th


11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #3 Talmadge Hill 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1e Feron entry 5-1 5th/10th
Exotics Use: #4 Desert Bliss 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Ave's Halo 7-2 4th


12th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 1m-IT

Most Likely: #2 St. Sincere 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Trainingforsuccess 8-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #8 Fiddlers Chico 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Ryvit 6-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 2-3-6
10: 1-3-4-5
11: 1-3-4-7
12: 2-6

3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48



DEL MAR


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Mega Heat 3-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Half Strike 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Holding Glory 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 You Know I Know 8-1 WON ($23.00)


6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Heart Stealer 7-2 8th
Best Value: #8 Warren's Flasher 5-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Prettypriceygirl 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Mary Fildes 12-1 2nd


7th: Cal0MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Miss Loujean 5-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Stole a Kiss 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Meinertzhagen 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Eddies Curl 5-2 7th


8th: Clement Hirsch (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Include Me Out 9-5 8th
Next Best: #2 Byrama 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 More Chocolate 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Via Villaggio 12-1 6th


9th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Chibita 8-1 WON ($19.00)
Next Best: #3 Just Irish 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Bob Constitution 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Localsucess 8-1 5th


10th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Christopher Street 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Ethnic Dance 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Pulpit's Express 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Turn On the Pumps 9-2 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #9 Mr. Ornery 8-1 7th


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 5-6-7
6: 10
7: 2-3-6-11
8: 9
9: 2-3-4-5
10: 1-7

3x1x4x1x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-11
8: 9
9: 2-3-4-5
10: 1-2-3-7-9

4x1x4x5 = 80 x .50 = $40


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S