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Old 08-22-2013, 08:27 AM
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Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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Default 8/22: Saratoga (Day 30-NSA G1 NY Turf Writers Cup H)

Carryover P6 was worth a robust $42k to winning plays Wednesday with the McLaughlin firster Almurra surprising the MSW 8th at a crazy 22-1 and Eascapefromreality upset Amberjack in the Albany. Early part of the day was heavily skewed towards short numbers and the early P4 hit lost $35 (!) despite the hit. Nine race card Thursday highlighted by the NSA-G1 NY Turf Writers Cup. Travers Day card was drawn Wednesday and it's outstanding..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY Turf Writers H. (NSA G1), 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Faves loom large here including defending winner Demonstrative, but I want to build my tickets through 8-1 All Together who is the most viable price option and in receipt of significant 10-20#..

Best Value: #4 All Together 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Demonstrative 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1e Sheppard entry 7-5 WON ($3.90)/3rd/8th


2nd: MCLM/$20k, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Foxbeau 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Saratoga Karaoke 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Free Release 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Two Step Flor 6-1 WON ($32.20)


3rd: Alydar, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Easter Gift 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Csaba 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Vitoria Olympica 8-1 WON ($11.40)


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Some nice working Empire babies including Speed Read, a full to fast-early Cribnote..

Most Likely: #3 Polecat 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Sandcat 3-1 WON ($12.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Speed Read 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Let's Discuss 12-1 6th


5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Keep a close eye on the turf courses as speed is absolutely killing it given the extended lack of rain..

Most Likely: #4 Never On Time 7-2 7th
Next Best: #5 Native Wave 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Sam's Buck 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Horvat Clan 3-1 WON ($9.30)


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-6
3: 4
4: 1-2-3
5: 2-3-4-5-7

3x1x3x5 = $45 ($22.50 for .50)


6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Going to hope that the presence of speeds and stalker-pressers produces honest results..

Most Likely: #1a Cheyenne Nation 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #4 Madris 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Z Dager 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Irish Lion 8-1 2nd


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Super Sky 7-5: Half to Princess Arabella has experience.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Sky Painter 6-1: KMc slipped one by Wed; Darley H/B looks OK.. WON ($18.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Reign 5-1: MSW dam was fast early, goof turfer later.. 6th
Super Add: #8 Camden Jane 12-1 3rd


8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (DD)

First time 4yo Malibu Yankee can stay in touch with leaders under Napravnik and get run on closers for under-radar Saville..

Best Value: #7 MALIBU YANKEE 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Free as a Bird 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Moonwalk 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Viva Rafaela 4-1 8th


9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #3 Wee Freudian 3-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Quick Money 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Notmydirstime 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Dreamsfonewild 12-1 WON ($24.80)


$36 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-8
7: 1-6-7
8: 3-7
9: 3-4-7-9

3x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36


Good luck!
Steve
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Last edited by Kasept : 08-23-2013 at 06:49 AM.
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Old 08-22-2013, 11:31 AM
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Steve Byk
 
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SAR SCR/CHG'S
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 08-22-2013, 01:03 PM
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randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
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Bridge jumping(sort of) in Steeplechase? I thought I've seen it all.
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Old 08-22-2013, 01:17 PM
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atolunch atolunch is offline
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Good luck today Steve!

Please double check race 8, I think Free as a Bird is the #3, not #2 as listed.
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Old 08-22-2013, 01:44 PM
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jms62 jms62 is offline
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Good job hitting that Super in the 2nd. One would think with a 32 buck horse on top it would pay more than 680 for a buck.
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Old 08-22-2013, 10:05 PM
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Steve Byk
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
Good job hitting that Super in the 2nd. One would think with a 32 buck horse on top it would pay more than 680 for a buck.
THX.. Small field there. Nightcap and Cheyenne Nation race were plenty juicy. Was certainly a fun day. I think I was most pleased getting to All Together in the jump stake. Wins if he had gotten through earlier inside Mr. Hot Stuff. Hope everyone did well!

$44k C/O Friday
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 08-23-2013, 06:43 AM
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herkhorse herkhorse is offline
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great job Steve!

I've played your jumper picks all year, can't thank you enough!
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Old 08-23-2013, 06:53 AM
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Steve Byk
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herkhorse View Post
great job Steve!

I've played your jumper picks all year, can't thank you enough!
Tom,

Thanks.. appreciate it. Always liked the hoppers but have really enjoyed it since getting a handle on what makes them successful up here. Chuck's dad particularly helped me along a couple of summers ago pointing out the speed element.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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