Get ready for smaller field sizes

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

This was discussed at the conference in the same presentation, and while I don't recall the exact numbers, the trends showed across all age groups, the percentages of horses within a foal crop racing at ages three through nine was down 10-20% since 2003.

It's not just the change in how much racing there is, or field size, but that fewer horses within each crop are making it to races, and actually hanging around.

The question that is hard to answer is how much have economics played a role in this trend? Surely owners were more likely to pull the plug on non or low earners the last 6 or 7 years than in years past and what role does the reduction in number of races offered play? I have no way of proving it but from conversations with other trainers in various parts of the country, the % of owners not paying or being severely tardy paying bills has increased quite a bit in 10 years. The amount of owners asking for 50/50 deals with no bills is crazy compared to 15 years ago. I'd say that 75% of inquires from owners in the last 3 or 4 years for me personally are from people wanting to cut a deal and pay a severely reduced or no day rate. In theory the ones that make the races on a deal would race more in order to make up the lack of expense money but lets be honest, no one is asking for deals on good horses, it the unraced ones with issues that are offered.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'm not sure about this. Yes top shelf stock is demanding higher prices this year, but that does not necessarily transcend throughout the entire crop.

Without an influx of new owners, or at least a majority of the owners that we forced out of the game due to the economy collapse, the foal crop will remain stagnant. By and large it cost just as much to keep a 10 claimer as it does to keep a G1 winner. We need a sustainable model to makes owning low tier horses viable, and the syndicates to come back and buy them.

I think that supply and demand is in full effect this year. The most recent FT Timonium sale was almost 1/3rd smaller this year than 2011 and the prices were very strong for less than stellar horses. The lower tier horses aren't quite as bad as they used to be because the bad and old mares were taken out of production. Younger mares without great credentials weren't bred. Stallion owners did less filling out of books. Those horses kept the prices overall down but there were always a few low priced gems that came out of the sale. This year and at the end of keeneland those horses that I used to scoop up for 5k are selling for 20k. There is money out there looking to get in because the stock market is riding high.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Without an influx of new owners, or at least a majority of the owners that we forced out of the game due to the economy collapse, the foal crop will remain stagnant. By and large it cost just as much to keep a 10 claimer as it does to keep a G1 winner. We need a sustainable model to makes owning low tier horses viable, and the syndicates to come back and buy them.

If you solve this issue, a lot of dominos would fall in place. The answer remains elusive though.

The irony of the foal crop reduction talk is that soon stallion fees for 2014 will be released and I'd be surprised if there weren't a whole lot of increases based on the strong showing in the sales ring this year.

[Danzig]

with increases in purses, you'd think you'd have more viability with making a business work. but on the other side of that, there are people who are against the higher purses, because they're afraid owners and trainers will run less than healthy stock to try to get some of the money. it's a difficult situation.
then again, making money can't be the main goal of a horse owner. he's got to be able to stand alone. it'd be nice if the horses could pay their own way, but if someone is facing needing money that badly, what's the chance of a horse getting a break if he needs one, if the owner is in financial trouble?
personally, i'm glad to know the foal crops are getting smaller. the demand is for good horses, that can run. if they're producing less of the low end horses, that's a good move.

[randallscott35]

Owning horses is like owning a boat. You aren't going to make money.

[Sightseek]

One day we will only be betting Kittens.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

One day we will only be betting Kittens.

I think this is my favorite post of the year.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If you solve this issue, a lot of dominos would fall in place. The answer remains elusive though.

The irony of the foal crop reduction talk is that soon stallion fees for 2014 will be released and I'd be surprised if there weren't a whole lot of increases based on the strong showing in the sales ring this year.

War Front's stud fee jumps to $150,000 for 2014