3/8 (SA): Big Cap, Kilroe (G1's), San Carlos, San Felipe (G2's)

Aly-Sheba · #1 03-06-2014, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

With all due respect to Jon White, I cannot see Game on Dude at 5-2 in this spot. I realize he'll still take a lot of money based on his reputation and overall record at Santa Anita, but isn't 5-1 more realistic? He just got drilled by Blingo for god sakes. And now add Will Take Charge and Mucho Macho Man to the mix.

If you listen to Jon White on Steve's show, he would rather have the odds lower, because he does not want to be embarrassed, if he makes a horses odds too high and it gets bet down and wins!! Mind Boggling IMO!!

Also I find it a disservice that he and Santa Anita wait so long to post morning line odds, because if you want to prints PP's out early, the horses numbers are not listed, only post position.

pmayjr · #2 03-06-2014, 12:29 PM

RPRettyboyFloyd was entered in a MSW as well over the weekend... good grief Denise, let the horse graduate before throwing him in with the big dogs.

RockHardTen1985 · #3 03-06-2014, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr

RPRettyboyFloyd was entered in a MSW as well over the weekend... good grief Denise, let the horse graduate before throwing him in with the big dogs.

No way he wins that MSW on Friday. Tough group.

Duvalier · #4 03-06-2014, 03:10 PM

Bayern supposedly scratching out of the San Felipe Saturday with a bruised inside quarter according to Bob Ike.

pmayjr · #5 03-06-2014, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

No way he wins that MSW on Friday. Tough group.

Fine, but if he can't beat a salty group of MSWs, he shouldn't be running in the San Felipe.

RockHardTen1985 · #6 03-06-2014, 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Fine, but if he can't beat a salty group of MSWs, he shouldn't be running in the San Felipe.

I totally agree. To be honest though, now that Bayern is out they might as well take a shot. He might be able to clunk up and hit the board again.

theguarantee · #7 03-07-2014, 05:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I totally agree. To be honest though, now that Bayern is out they might as well take a shot. He might be able to clunk up and hit the board again.

Bayern looked like a cinch to me. I thought Rprettyboyfloyd was the most intriguing alternative option. Maiden or not, he's only been beaten by quality. May appreciate the stretchout to two turns (hey - maybe he's a closing sprinter, I know)...and if you re-watch the San Vicente closely I think you'll be a bit intrigued (I was at least, we all watch races differently).

theguarantee · #8 03-07-2014, 06:01 AM

I guess I don't play Santa Anita enough. Can't seem to find this info -- does anyone know what races pk-4's and pk-6 will offer? Also, I know they are notoriously late on the morning lines but are they really still not out or am I blind?

pmayjr · #9 03-06-2014, 07:03 PM

By the way,

I know I'm in the severe minority on this, but the competition in the Big Cap is likely to be tougher than the Dubai World Cup for Mucho Macho Man. If he loses Saturday his connections deserve to take crap for not shipping there.

I'm at work so if this starts debate, gimme a couple hours to reply.

Jay Frederick · #10 03-06-2014, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr

By the way,

I know I'm in the severe minority on this, but the competition in the Big Cap is likely to be tougher than the Dubai World Cup for Mucho Macho Man. If he loses Saturday his connections deserve to take crap for not shipping there.

I'm at work so if this starts debate, gimme a couple hours to reply.

The Big Cap is run at arguably his favorite course on a surface we know he handles. So how is the competition in the Dubai World Cup going to be softer, especially when you factor in the surface?

ateamstupid · #11 03-06-2014, 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr

By the way,

I know I'm in the severe minority on this, but the competition in the Big Cap is likely to be tougher than the Dubai World Cup for Mucho Macho Man. If he loses Saturday his connections deserve to take crap for not shipping there.

I'm at work so if this starts debate, gimme a couple hours to reply.

The level of competition is meaningless. Shipping him across the world to run on a surface he most likely can't handle is asinine, especially with the opportunity to add a race as prestigious as the Big Cap to his resume staring them in the face.

His connections deserve credit win or lose for keeping him home.

Revidere · #12 03-06-2014, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The level of competition is meaningless. Shipping him across the world to run on a surface he most likely can't handle is asinine, especially with the opportunity to add a race as prestigious as the Big Cap to his resume staring them in the face.

His connections deserve credit win or lose for keeping him home.

pmayjr · #13 03-06-2014, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The level of competition is meaningless. Shipping him across the world to run on a surface he most likely can't handle is asinine, especially with the opportunity to add a race as prestigious as the Big Cap to his resume staring them in the face.

His connections deserve credit win or lose for keeping him home.

He's won the biggest race in North America over that surface already. What would it matter if he wins the Big Cap against 2 horses he's already beat? I hope he gets a chance to do it again in November, but to me him running in the Big Cap is the equivalent of Wise Dan running in another G2 mile race on the turf.

How the heck do you know if he'll handle the Meydan synth surface or not unless he tries? He'd be running against a bunch of turf horses probably trying the surface for the first time, and a few that have done well at Meydan, but against questionable competition.

4th place in the Dubai World Cup pays more than 1st place in the Big Cap. And the prestige that a Group 1 placing on synthetic would add to his stud value goes wayyy further than another win over the Santa Anita Dirt (unless that next win is in November).

I totally get that he probably wouldn't run again until July or August, but that's plenty of time to get fit for the Breeders Cup. I'm also one that seriously won't rip MMM or his connections if they were to branch out and they failed. Because they at least would've took the risk to take on the best in the world. Same for Wise Dan if he were to try going to Dubai for a mile turf race and he failed. Because they would've tried.

It's really cool that we get to see these 3 run in the Big Cap (and I'm excited to watch the race), but I still think Dubai is the better move.

Indian Charlie · #14 03-06-2014, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr

By the way,

I know I'm in the severe minority on this, but the competition in the Big Cap is likely to be tougher than the Dubai World Cup for Mucho Macho Man. If he loses Saturday his connections deserve to take crap for not shipping there.

I'm at work so if this starts debate, gimme a couple hours to reply.

I am going to let this one go, since it's been awhile since you made a post like this.

Danzig · #15 03-07-2014, 06:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr

By the way,

I know I'm in the severe minority on this, but the competition in the Big Cap is likely to be tougher than the Dubai World Cup for Mucho Macho Man. If he loses Saturday his connections deserve to take crap for not shipping there.

I'm at work so if this starts debate, gimme a couple hours to reply.

do you have a stake in the dubai world cup?

how do you reconcile this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr

I really really really really really want you to be right. It's surreal to me that all the big timers are meeting for this race. What happened to every major horse ducking each other for the most part until November? I'm cheering for him to get back to the BC(and for Will Take Charge, Dude, etc), but I'm just really skeptical. Especially after an announced stud deal.

with you still kvetching about not going to dubai?

as for him having a boost to his stud resume with a win over synthetic (assuming he wins)...the move back to dirt in cali (and probably eventually all tracks again) completely belies any notion that synthetic ability is a bonus or that breeders will be looking for that when making a breeding decision.

for years people decried the big cap losing prestige (and the oaklawn handicap as well) because people chased the money halfway around the world.....i can't understand why you feel so strongly that would be the right move for this horse, especially knowing the overall successes, or lack thereof, for american horses since the surface change there.
competition is the key, and i'd imagine they are planning a campaign for horse of the year. a win here would be very significant for MMM. at dubai? not even close.
as for the purse there-money won is one thing, graded wins another. was HOY the last two years the top money earner?

pmayjr · #16 03-07-2014, 10:23 AM

Once again, he already has the biggest win he'll ever have over the SA surface. Last I checked, Keeneland, Arlington, Woodbine, GG, Ocala and some international tracks still use synthetic. If he does well over a synthetic surface, you could start thinking more internationally with the horse's stud potential than just as a son of Macho Uno that can only throw dirt winners.

You don't know unless you try...