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01-15-2014, 10:57 AM
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Fappiano
New King of the Derby Trail
13 January, 2014 7:44 PM It seems year after year, the Derby trail has been dominated by horses from the A.P. Indy sire line, and this year that line once again makes a powerful presence, especially through his son Pulpit and Pulpit’s son Tapit. But so far, A.P. Indy’s sire-line influence has been a bit overshadowed by that of Fappiano, mainly through his son Unbridled. In fact, the presence of this line has been nothing short of extraordinary as the 3-year-olds prepare to embark on the 2014 Derby trail. Although the name of John Nerud will always been associated with the legendary Dr. Fager, it was Fappiano, a grandson of Dr. Fager, that made Nerud a wealthy man, admittedly paying for his stately Long Island home. Fappiano’s influence has reached new heights this year. At present, there are 24 highly rated horses on the Derby trail who trace to Fappiano, mainly through his sire line and mainly through his son Unbridled. Following is the breakdown by horses (all of them impressive winners, stakes winners, or stakes-placed horses) and their connection to Fappiano. Cairo Prince – Fappiano – Unbridled – Empire Maker – Pioneerof the Nile (sire line) Candy Boy – Fappiano – Cryptoclearance – Ride the Rails – Candy Ride (sire line) Conquest Titan – Fappiano – Unbridled – Grindstone – Birdstone (sire line) Cool Samurai – Fappiano – tail female line of sire First Samurai Giancarlo –Fappiano – Roy – Zenith (tail female sire line) Gold Hawk – Fappiano – Unbridled – Empire Maker (sire line) Havana – Fappiano – Unbridled – Unbridled’s Song – Dunkirk (sire line) Intense Holiday – Fappiano – Unbridled – Unbridled’s Song – Intensify (brood sire line) Mexikoma -- Fappiano – Unbridled – Grindstone – Birdstone (sire line) Midnight Hawk – Fappiano – Quiet American – Real Quiet – Midnight Lute (sire line) Misconnect – Fappiano – Unbridled – Unbridled’s Song (sire line) Mr. Speaker – Fappiano – Unbridled – Salute (broodmare sire line) Exit Stage Left -- Fappiano -- Unbridled -- Unbridled's Song -- Noonmark (sire line) Rise Up – Fappiano – Unbridled – Unbridled’s Song—Rockport Harbor (sire line) Roman Unbridled – Fappiano – Unbridled – Unbridled’s Song (broodmare sire line) Shared Belief – Fappiano – Cryptoclearance – Ride the Rails – Candy Ride (sire line) Uncle Sigh – Fappiano – tail female line Through Tapit, whose broodmare sire is Unbridled, by Fappiano Constitution Coup de Grace Giancarlo Harpoon Matterhorn Tap It Rich Tapiture Through Bernardini, whose broodmare sire is Quiet American, by Fappiano Unknown Road As shown above, among those from Fappiano’s sire line are successful sires, both young and older, such as Empire Maker, Midnight Lute, Candy Ride, Unbridled’s Song, Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and Birdstone. Breaking down this impressive group of 3-year-olds, you have the winner of the Champagne Stakes (Havana), the one-two finishers of the CashCall Futurity (Shared Belief and Candy Boy), winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Tapiture), winner of the Delta Downs Jackpot (Rise Up), winner of the Sham Stakes (Midnight Hawk), winner of the Dania Beach Stakes (Mr Speaker), winner of the Gold Rush Stakes (Exit Stage Left), winner of the Big Drama Stakes (Roman Unbridled), winner of the Swynford Stakes (Conquest Titan), and the runners-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Havana) and Remsen Stakes (Cairo Prince). There’s also the fourth-place finisher of the Remsen and Nashua Stakes (Intense Holiday), as well as impressive allowance winners Conquest Titan, Gold Hawk, and Coup de Grace. It should be no surprise that Fappiano proved to be such a dominant sire, being by Mr. Prospector, out of the Dr. Fager mare Killaloe, who produced five black-type horses and seven horses who earned over $100,000. Killaloe’s dam, Grand Splendor, a daughter of Tartan Stable’s foundation mare Cequillo, also produced Gonfalon, the dam of the brilliant Ogygian. In addition to Grand Splendor, Cequilllo produced Man o’ War Stakes winner Ruffled Feathers; Hot Dust, who won or placed in 16 stakes, including the Travers, Widener Handicap, and Fountain of Youth; Quiet Charm, the granddam of Quiet American; multiple stakes winner Tequillo, and Expectancy, the dam of Dr. Patches, the champion sprinter of 1978 who won the Meadowlands Cup at 1 1/4 miles and the Vosburgh at seven furlongs, and who upset Seattle Slew in the Paterson Handicap at 1 1/8 miles. Dr. Patches also equaled the track record at Belmont for a mile and set a new track record at 1 ¼ miles at the Meadowlands. Expectancy also produced Who’s for Dinner, who won or placed in 12 stakes, including the grade I Arlington Handicap and United Nations Handicap twice. As for Fappiano, he won the Metropolitan Handicap at a mile, the Forego Handicap at seven furlongs, and the Discovery Handicap at 1 1/8 miles. When he retired, Nerud, realizing his amazing potential as a sire, syndicated him for $300,000 a share. Who knows what the extent of his influence would have been had he not died of laminitis at the young age of 13. The Keyword is ‘If’ In this initial look at the Derby picture, we’re going to throw some “ifs” around in preparation for the first Derby Dozen, which will not be an easy task this year (Is it ever?). If Conquest Titan can duplicate his allowance victory in the Holy Bull Stakes, he is going to give Cairo Prince and everyone else more than they can handle. As it is, he is a Top 5 contender right now, based on his electrifying turn of foot and powerhouse move between and around horses in the allowance race. It was the first time they’ve taken him far back off the pace after his unsuccessful attempts at being a speed horse. He has the mind and the raw talent to be any kind. Wynn had him at 85-1 and the Holy Bull could make those odds look like the bargain of the year. If Mr Speaker can handle dirt (and he sure is bred for it) in the Holy Bull the way he’s handled grass, the sky’s the limit for this regally bred colt by Pulpit, out of Salute, who has shown the kind of acceleration and willingness to go through tight spots you want to see in a young horse. The ideal scenario in the Holy Bull is for both him and Conquest Titan colts to move forward and establish themselves as legitimate Derby contenders. Shug McGaughey also has Honor Code, who is the most magnificent physical specimen we’ve seen so far from this group, but don’t forget about Top Billing, who has a bright future, as well. If we’re bold enough to put Wicked Strong ahead of Shared Belief, Honor Code, Havana, and the other top Derby horses, we could have a live 50-1 shot (at Wynn) at the top of the list. Everything about his maiden score and his third in the Remsen, in which he closed into blazing final fractions and was just getting in gear in the final 70 yards, indicates this is major talent who is only going to get better. He still has learning to do, as he shied from the whip on three occasions in the stretch, but is in the capable hands of Jimmy Jerkens. If Gold Hawk can come close to duplicating his first two races in his stakes debut in the LeComte Stakes, in which he looked brilliant and displayed a beautiful way of going, Steve Asmussen could actually have a better shot at the Derby than he did with the very lightly raced Curlin. For all the RF (Rasmussen Factor) followers (me being one), this colt is inbred to the Tartan Stable mare Grand Splendor through her daughters Killaloe, dam of Fappiano, and Gonfalon, dam of Ogygian. If Mexikoma continues to work steadily at Palm Meadows, he should return with a vengeance following a less-than-ideal trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and should stamp himself as a leading Derby contender right off the bat. That maiden romp at Delaware Park was just too good a race from a visual standpoint. If Shared Belief handles the dirt and stays sound (no more minor setbacks), he looks like The Big Hoss; it’s as simple as that. No one has come close to duplicating what he accomplished last year and good how he looked doing it. He’s just a flat-out talented horse with a killer turn of foot. But all his starts have been on a synthetic surface. From the side, you have to love the way he drops his shoulder and covers ground down the stretch. But the only nagging little thing is his stride from a head-on view. He has a tendency to angle his body in and doesn’t get his legs under him the way you’d like to see, especially the way he paddles his left front leg. This won’t affect his performance and could mean absolutely nothing in the long run, and his connections are unconcerned. If Havana looks like anything like a Derby horse in his return and gives any indication he wants to go a distance of ground, he’s as brilliant as any of them, and his credentials of winning the Champagne and finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile were as impressive as any 2-year-old. Remember, his sire, Dunkirk, ran huge to finish second in the Belmont Stakes and his broodmare sire, Kyle’s Our Man, is from a stout Darby Dan family. If Bob Baffert can keep his army intact this year, he should hold a powerful hand, even with the loss of New Year’s Day. Midnight Hawk still has improving to do, but his Sham score was a big step forward, as he did most of it on his own. So, consider this just a teaser as the first Derby Dozen approaches. TagsFiled under: kentucky derby, Fappiano, Dr Fager, unbridled, a.p. indy30 Comments Leave a Comment: Sign InCreate an AccountRacingfan We must remember that all these hopefuls are from the Native Dancer 'sire line'....he still lives thru all his MANY MANY MANY amazing descendants! 13 Jan 2014 9:04 PM White Plains Eric Appreciate the pre-Derby Dozen list, Steve. I have my eye on Vicar's in Trouble who may be going in the Lecomte this weekend. May make it onto your list if he starts. I think he's 200-1 in Vegas. 13 Jan 2014 9:30 PM BadSaddle Super duper,Steve, as usual.looking forward to the Derby Dozen. also hope Noble Moon has a shot. 13 Jan 2014 10:05 PM JayJay Ahh, a little teaser works for me, fever has gone down a bit. Glad to see 4 of my long list so far made this list. I'm watching Rise Up, Gold Hawk, Havana and Cairo Prince. I'm looking at Empire Maker's and Rockport Harbor colts this year. 13 Jan 2014 10:11 PM Playfriskyforme Unbridled was another great sire who died much too young and was on the way to being the next Storm Cat.Got an up close look at him summer 91 at Del Mar backside.He was as impressive a specimen as they come. 13 Jan 2014 10:47 PM Arch the phoneman Thanks Steve. Looking forward to the Derby Dozen and the chatter that it inspires. I appreciate your great work. 13 Jan 2014 11:13 PM Coldfacts Conquest Titan caught my attention heading into the BCJ. I was surprised to see a Birdstone colt leading the likes of Havana, strong Mandate and company. He has some similarities to Mine That Bird. They both won the Swynford Stakes in Canada and went on to finish last in the Breeders Cup juvenile. Both horses are small and were produced from unraced mares. Both horses seem to perform at their best when covered up and asked to run late. Conquest Titan made a Mine That Bird Derby type move to sweep by all and won going away in his last race. He was last following fractions of 22, 45, 1:10 to win in a final time of 1:35.27. The Holy Bull should certainly give some indication of whether or not he is a serious Derby contender. 13 Jan 2014 11:13 PM Secretariat Did not like that 13 1/5 (last eighth) that Midnight Hawk turned in. Don't think he is a very good horse. Why? ...because the horse he beat (AKA: "Kristo") is not very good either 14 Jan 2014 2:15 AM greatabove Thanks again Ben for a great piece on another great horse. 14 Jan 2014 8:02 AM Lmaris Love the analysis. AP Indy and Unbridled were contemporaries, and since you expanded your examples to Unbridled's sire, maybe the same should be done for AP Indy's sire, Seattle Slew? Including Bernardini's offspring is a bit double sworded, as he was sired by AP Indy. 14 Jan 2014 8:50 AM Proud Acres hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, derby fever! I love this time of year! 14 Jan 2014 9:00 AM Coldfacts Secretariat, Midnight Hawk was not under a strong drive to the line. He could have gone faster. Nice Colt. 14 Jan 2014 10:25 AM Coldfacts Secretariat, Midnight Hawk's dam was sired by Wolf Power who hails from the Round Table sire line. His mares re rarely seen in Derby contenders. In 2006 Steppenwolfer finished 3rd in the Derby won by Barbaro. His dam was sire by Wolf Power. There have been two Derby winners whose dams were sired by a stallion from the Round Table line. The dams of Seattle Slew and Silver Charm were sired by Poker a son of Round Table. Midnight Hawk's dam sire line does have some Derby history and I would not be too dismissive of this colt. 14 Jan 2014 10:42 AM Shelby's Best Pal Just reading the words "Derby Dozen" put a smile on my face. Bring it. 14 Jan 2014 10:49 AM Coldfacts My love affair with the Mr. Prospector sire line is well documented. In 2013 the line recorded its 40th win in Triple Crown races with Palace Malice‘s victory in the Belmont. It should be noted that Curlin became the 10th grandson of Mr. Prospector to sire the winner of a TC race. He joined Cryptoclerance, Quiet American, Unbridled, Thunder Gulch, Elusive Quality, Street Cry, Roman Ruler, Distorted Humor and Northern Afleet. Five of his grandsons have sired Derby winners. Clearly Mr. Prospector most successful male-line descendents as stallions are his grandsons. They have sired 13 horses that have won 18 TC races. Nine of his sons sired 11 horses that have won 14 TC races. Mr. Prospector sired 3 horses that won 3 TC races. His great grandsons and beyond have sired 4 horses that have won 5 TC races. Of the 40 TC races won by the sire line, great grandsons and beyond have sired horses that account for 5 or 12.5% of the victories. What does all this data proves? Nothing when it comes on to the Derby. From the list compiled by Mr. Haskin only Top Billing was sired by a grandson of Mr. Prospector. Unless Ride On Curlin is off the Derby trail, he should have been part of the list by virtue of his 3rd place finish in the G1 Champagne. Subject to correction he is the only 2YO to have set a NTR. Conquest Titan, Mr Speaker, Gold Hawk, Mexikoma, Shared Belief, Havana, Midnight Hawk, Cairo Prince, Candy Boy, Misconnect and Rise Up are all nice horses. However, their sires fall into an historic category that has had marginal success at best in the Derby in particular and Triple Crown in general. Top Billing and Ride On Curlin have positive history on their sides. 14 Jan 2014 12:10 PM Hondo Great Job Steve...I am particularly interested in the Tapit line and I find him the emerging sire king. Your comments on Dr. Patches in the Meadowlands Cup and his upset of Seattle Slew in the Paterson Handicap brought back memories as being a Jersey boy I was present at the Big M both nights 14 Jan 2014 12:56 PM Cris So sad that Fappiano and Dr. Fager both died way too young. Good thing Native Dancer was around a while though, almost every horse running in the Derby decade after decade has his blood running through their veins. 14 Jan 2014 1:01 PM Racingfan Cris - the incomparable Native Dancer died young at only 17. Imagine his influence if he would have lived a longer life....! Cold Facts, why don't we call the "Mr Prospector" sire line what is really is - the "Native Dancer" sire line, since is it he who was the All Time Great that deserves some credit...? :-) 14 Jan 2014 3:38 PM Greg R Even more reason for excitement about all these Fappiano line colts (especially through Unbridled): Most of these have not run at Churchill Downs yet, but it has always seemed to me that Unbridleds and Unbridled-line horses favor Churchill, ie., they show an above-average affinity for Churchill. Admittedly, this is an impression, and someone may be able to prove me wrong. But if had a top mare prospect and wanted a Derby winner, I would breed her to a son of Unbridled. Which reminds me, you didn't mention Broken Vow, did you? What does that tell us? 14 Jan 2014 4:38 PM mz Yay! Derby! If I win one of the lotteries before May, I will get a big box and invite all the bloggers -- it will be fun to see everyone, and I mean everyone -- Ted, will you have birds on your hat? Linda in Texas, will it be a pink Stetson with feathers? Paula Higgins, will it be a quiet, classy hat with a swooping brim? Pedigree Ann and Sceptre, will you have various 5cross pedigrees spangled across a bowler? -- I can dream. Anyways, what about my usual comment: FILLIES! I am looking forward to Ria Antonia and her run to the Roses! 14 Jan 2014 6:28 PM Windolin Another great post Steve. I have long liked the Unbridled progeny. I love it when a stallion or mare passes on their greatness to successive generations long after they have left us. While I am not real fond of Tapit (too long in the back for my tastes), he does throw beautiful babies. Zenyatta's colt by him in 2013 is just about one of the prettiest foals born last year. It remains to be seen if he has racing talent, but from this gene pool, he should have! Bernardini seems to throw beautiful fillies. Both LaVille Rouge's filly and Rachel's were really fine. Would love to see one or both in the Triple Crown a few years from now. So Steve, please humor we ladies who adore you and include some reviews on the girls for 2014! 14 Jan 2014 8:26 PM harry i don't understand all excitement over Midnight Hawk. He beat some very average horses and only 5 or 6 in race.Is he ready for 20 horse Derby Field (I think not).He might be a prospect for California racing but outside of California looks very average. Improvement needed. 14 Jan 2014 8:42 PM Mary You can thank Cequillo by Princequillo for Fappiano's success. The tail side of Fappiano's pedigree is replete with stamina. Again the sire is as great as the mare he is bred to. I'm just tired of reading about the sire, with little regard for the mare. 14 Jan 2014 8:45 PM Paula Higgins MZ, LOL I will take the "quiet classy hat with the swooping brim?" Also, a few mint juleps to go. If I win the lottery, back at you. O.k., I like Gold Hawk and Shared Belief. I am hoping it will be a great year in racing. Horse racing makes my world happier and more interesting. I even have my husband on board. On a much sadder note, I just saw the news about St. Nicholas Abbey. Absolutely, heartbreaking. 14 Jan 2014 9:03 PM Jean Chodkowski I've been touting Fappiano as "the" Derby sire for years now, to the point where I used him as an example when explaining pedigrees in my book The Anatomy of Horse Race Handicapping - check it out at www.fun-at-the-track.com 14 Jan 2014 9:53 PM Drinks from a glass !! the fillies still love sweet reason........ the boys ... honor code and wicked strong for sure... 14 Jan 2014 10:37 PM Ranagulzion Great opening salvo, Steve. The Fappiano angle is very insightful. Conquest Titan and Cairo Prince are the cream of the ones you named in my view. Its going to be another very interesting Triple Crown season. As far the Kentucky Derby is concerned, Honor Code is the one they'll all have to beat in spite of having A P Indy as his sire and Storm Cat as his broodmare sire. The Remsen was nothing more than a very good exercise gallop for a colt that is not supposed to be so good so soon, therefore watch out. I'm resolved to be more conservative this season and not be too bullish about Honor Code so early but his future seems awfully bright from my vantage point (glad to be one of the first ones on his bandwaggon, spotting him as my Derby horse after the Champagne/ before the Remsen) as I'm determined to pick the Derby winner this year. Shared Belief is impressive but will need to answer the stamina and dirt questions convincingly. More anon. 15 Jan 2014 12:30 AM Mike Relva Secretariat Really? Are you serious? 15 Jan 2014 1:46 AM JayJay I'm anxious to see Exit Stage Left's next race, he's currently number one on my list...the "other" Jerry horse. I think he'll take to dirt much better than Shared Belief, his papa seemed to love Churchill Downs. I'm pretty sure he'll be Jerry's El Camino Real horse but I'm hoping they'll take him to Fair Grounds, use the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby trail. 15 Jan 2014 3:14 AM Coldfacts Mr. Speaker: He is a physically imposing and obviously talented colt. I first caught sight of him just before they entered the gates for the Diana Beach. Without knowing details of his past performances and connections I placed a small wager and was happy with the 10-1 return on investment. Thereafter, I mentioned the colt to colleague and he specified that he was at Belmont Park for the colt’s 2nd start. He was curious as to why a colt with an overwhelmingly dirt pedigree was entered in a turf race. During the post parade he observed that the colt had extremely big hooves. Assuming collages assessment was correct, could this be the reason for the colt’s 4 starts on turf. Are horses with big hooves better on turf? The hove issue could be meaningless as the colt experienced and brilliants trainer should know best. The dam sire of the 2013 Derby winner Orb was Unbridled. He is also the dam sire of Mr. Speaker. What are the prospects of him being the dam sire of successive Derby winners? Is this one of those insurmountable historic Derby hurdle? It could be! Very rarely do successive Derby winners have either the same sire or broodmare sire. With 130 plus years of Derby history it is very likely that this has occurred but certainly not in the last 50 years. In recent times Dixieland Band has been the closest to achieving the feat. In 2009 He was the dam sire of Derby winner Street Sense and in 2010 he was also the dam sire of the ill-fated Derby runner up Eight Belles. She had no chance of beating Big Brown but was a winner for effort. Dixieland Band has been the most successful Derby broodmare sire in the last 15 years. Monachos, Street Sense and Eight Belles were all produced from mares sire by him. Unbridled is a close second. Orb, Shackleford and Dennis Of Cork were all produced from mares sire by him. Unbridled has been and continues to be a major influence. Although Derby history is against Mr. Speaker being the next Derby winner, his dam sire is so influential that he is always positioned to unbridle history. 15 Jan 2014 7:56 AM HomeRSSRecent Posts New King of the Derby Trail Stanco Won More Than He Lost Guest Blog: Tunnel Visions -- by Cynthia Holt Summer Bird's Belmont StakesRecommended Tales from the Triple Crown Thoroughbred Legend: Dr. Fager Thoroughbred Legend: John Henry Thoroughbred Legend: Kelso Horse Racing's Top 100 Moments Thoroughbred Champions: Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th Century 2013 Triple Crown PreviewVideo And They're Off!Social Media Become a friend on Facebook!More Blogs Adam's TurfAt LargeBeyond the BlinkersHangin' With HaskinMaiden WatchMarketWatchNovak at the TrackStories from Cot CampbellThrough the LensTrueNicksUnlocking WinnersWhat's Going On HereArchives January 2014 (2)December 2013 (5)November 2013 (9)October 2013 (10)September 2013 (4)August 2013 (10)July 2013 (4)June 2013 (12)May 2013 (13)April 2013 (10)March 2013 (6)February 2013 (4)January 2013 (5)December 2012 (2)November 2012 (6)October 2012 (12)September 2012 (6)August 2012 (5)July 2012 (8)June 2012 (9)May 2012 (18)April 2012 (8)March 2012 (5)February 2012 (5)January 2012 (2)December 2011 (2)November 2011 (6)October 2011 (8)September 2011 (7)August 2011 (2)July 2011 (5)June 2011 (13)May 2011 (14)April 2011 (7)March 2011 (9)February 2011 (7)January 2011 (4)December 2010 (3)November 2010 (3)October 2010 (2)September 2010 (8)August 2010 (6)July 2010 (7)June 2010 (5)May 2010 (6)April 2010 (2)March 2010 (3)February 2010 (2)January 2010 (1)December 2009 (9)November 2009 (5)October 2009 (3)September 2009 (2)August 2009 (6)July 2009 (8)June 2009 (8)May 2009 (3)April 2009 (12)March 2009 (10)February 2009 (5)January 2009 (6)December 2008 (6)November 2008 (6)October 2008 (6)September 2008 (6)August 2008 (6)July 2008 (9)June 2008 (2)Tags ahmed zayatAidan O’BrienAnimal Kingdomanimal kingdomApple BlossomBelmont StakesBig BrownBill MottBirdstonebob baffertBobby FrankelBodemeisterBreeders' CupBreeders' Cup ClassicBrilliant SpeedCalvin BorelcigarCountdown to the CupCreative CauseCurlinD. 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Arrogate is the best horse since The Bid, and The Bid was better than Secretariat!!!! 
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#2
01-15-2014, 12:17 PM
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Quote:
Got through this part, at least. Good stuff, there. The rest of this post began to make my eyes bleed.
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#3
01-15-2014, 12:46 PM
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To me, the biggest 'what if', beyond him dying so young, would be what if his magnificent son Grand Canyon hadn't been Lukas'd?
That horse was amongst the biggest bad ass race horses I've ever seen.
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01-15-2014, 03:10 PM
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wall of text!
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#6
03-10-2014, 08:42 PM
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I was at Belmont the day Fappiano broke his maiden ( at 40:1 ).
Ran up a dead rail to win easily over favored Buck Island.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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03-10-2014, 11:18 PM
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Fappiano had a great ass.
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