7/25: Saratoga (Day 7; Curlin)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA RACE COURSE


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: MCLM/$35k, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Silver Union 7-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #5 Vision of Mine 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Bird Rockette 4-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Lovely Elle 6-1 3rd


2nd: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Valerie Victoria 12-1 8th
Next Best: #2 My Place 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Violet Hour 3-1 WON ($3.60)
Super Add: #10 Ah Gaga 10-1 4th


3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 12f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Clearbrook 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Shetan 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Royal Blessing 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Grand Rapport 6-1 2nd


4th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Dan's Gold 12-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Noble Cornerstone 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Jeter 4-1 6th
Super Add: #1 The Big Deluxe 4-1 2nd


5th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Animal Style 2-1 9th
Best Value: #8 Upward 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Stormy Rocit 7-2 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Tiz Yankee 15-1 5th


<$75 P5 Play:

1: 5-7
2: 2-6-8-10
3: 1-2
4: 1-2-3-7
5: 8-9

2x4x2x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64


Multi-ticket approach:

All A's:

1-5,7/2,8/1/7/9 - 2.00

A's with One B:

2-2/2,8/1/7/9 - 1.00
3-5,7/6,10/1/7/9 - 2.00
4-5,7/2,8/2,5/7/9 - 4.00
5-5,7/2,8/1/2,3/9 - 4.00
6-5,7/2,8/1/7/8 - 2.00

A's with Two B:

7-2/6,10/1/7/9 - 1.00
8-2/2,8/2,5/7/9 - 2.00
9-2/2,8/1/2,3/9 - 2.00
10-2/2,8/1/7/8 - 1.00
11-5,7/6,10/2,5/7/9 - 4.00
12-5,7/6,10/1/2,3/9 - 4.00
13-5,7/6,10/1/7/8 - 2.00
14-5,7/2,8/2,5/2,3/9 - 8.00
15-5,7/2,8/2,5/7/8 - 4.00
16-5,7/2,8/1/2,3/8 - 4.00

A's with One C:

17-1,3,6/2,8/1/7/9 - 3.00
18-5,7/2,8/6/7/9 - 2.00
19-5,7/2,8/1/1,5,6/9 - 6.00

Total (All .50): $58.00


<$40 P4 Play:

2: 2-6-8-10
3: 1
4: 1-2-3-7
5: 3-8-9-10

4x1x4x4 = 64 x .50 = $32



Multi-ticket approach:

All A's:

1-2,8/1,2/7/9 - 2.00

A's with One B:

2-6,10/1,2/7/9 - 2.00
3-2,8/5,6/7/9 - 2.00
4-2,8/1,2/2,3/9 - 4.00
5-2,8/1,2/7/8,10 - 4.00

A's with Two B:

6-6,10/5,6/7/9 - 2.00
7-6,10/1,2/2,3/9 - 4.00
8-6,10/1,2/7/8,10 - 4.00
9-2,8/5,6/2,3/9 - 4.00
10-2,8/5,6/7/8,10 - 4.00
11-2,8/1,2/2,3/8,10 - 8.00

A's with One C:

12-2,8/1,2/1,4,5,6/9 - 8.00
13-2,8/1,2/7/2,3 - 4.00

Total (All .50): $52.00


6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Qualify 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Guilt Trip 3-1 4th


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Samba Sunset 7-2 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #3 Hope Cross 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Shift Colors 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Place Card 10-1 5th


8th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 M J Plus 4-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Noble Doss 8-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Writingonthewall 5-1 WON ($19.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Bug Juice 3-1 5th


9th: 6th Curlin, 3yo, 9f (DD)

SCR #1 Commanding Curve who will run Saturday in the Jim Dandy..

On an otherwise mundane card, this is a terrific group with some advancing types. Seems like there's a good amount of pace on, which makes you wonder why Commanding Curve opts for Saturday's alternative..

Best Value: #2 Viva Majorca 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Protonico 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Life in Shambles 6-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Cousin Stephen 5-1 9th


10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T

Incredible array of pedigrees on display with featured dams including Shadow Cast (Upstaged), Raging Fever (Colorful), Catinca (Illapa), Velvet Snow (Jolene), Vacare (Knotty Pine), Madcap Escapade daughter and SW herself Mi Sueno (Por Que Te Sueno)..

Most Likely: #4 Knotty Pine 4-1 4th
Best Value: #1a Upstaged 8-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Jolene 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Illapa 20-1 8th


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-4-8
8: 4-6
9: 2-3-10
10: 1-3-4-5

4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 Multi-ticket P4 Play:

All A's:

1-3,4/4,6/2,3/4 - 4.00

A's with One B:

2-2/4,6/2,3/4 - 2.00
3-3,4/2,9/2,3/4 - 4.00
4-3,4/4,6/6,10/4 - 4.00
5-3,4/4,6/2,3/1,5 - 8.00

A's with Two B:

6-2/2,9/2,3/4 - 2.00
7-2/4,6/6,10/4 - 2.00
8-2/4,6/2,3/1,5 - 4.00
9-3,4/2,9/6,10/4 - 4.00
10-3,4/2,9/2,3/1,5 - 8.00
11-3,4/4,6/6,10/1,5 - 8.00

A's with One C:

12-8,10/4,6/2,3/4 - 4.00
13-3,4/3,10/2,3/4 - 4.00
14-3,4/4,6/5/4 - 2.00
15-3,4/4,6/2,3/3,7,9 - 12.00

Total (All .50): $72.00


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[ScottJ]

Today's third race was the 12-furlong turf affair that featured a well-backed Clearbrook - a filly facing males for the first time - that was an absolute play against in my mind meaning that I saw this race as full of value.

Javier takes the lead and as is so typically the case, the entire field watches through a half-time in 1:16.71! (Skipping to the end game, the race was timed in 2:28.35 meaning the back half came in 1:11.56!)

As expected with another poorly timed Cornelio ride, he falls a half-length short as Saffron Hall prevails over Grand Rapport. Often times, you will hear that all of the jockeys in the Saratoga colony are top flight and interchangable. Watch the third race from today and explain how that is possible.

Just once, will a jockey in this colony PLEASE press the lead going two (or three) turns?

As a public service, someone should let Irad Ortiz know that he can now release the choke hold on Royal Blessing. Also, someone please let Alan Garcia know that the race has actually started.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Today's third race was the 12-furlong turf affair that featured a well-backed Clearbrook - a filly facing males for the first time - that was an absolute play against in my mind meaning that I saw this race as full of value.

Javier takes the lead and as is so typically the case, the entire field watches through a half-time in 1:16.71! (Skipping to the end game, the race was timed in 2:28.35 meaning the back half came in 1:11.56!)

As expected with another poorly timed Cornelio ride, he falls a half-length short as Saffron Hall prevails over Grand Rapport. Often times, you will hear that all of the jockeys in the Saratoga colony are top flight and interchangable. Watch the third race from today and explain how that is possible.

Just once, will a jockey in this colony PLEASE press the lead going two (or three) turns?

As a public service, someone should let Irad Ortiz know that he can now release the choke hold on Royal Blessing. Also, someone please let Alan Garcia know that the race has actually started.

Just curious, if the Saratoga jockey colony is not top flight, what colony is?

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Today's third race was the 12-furlong turf affair that featured a well-backed Clearbrook - a filly facing males for the first time - that was an absolute play against in my mind meaning that I saw this race as full of value.

Javier takes the lead and as is so typically the case, the entire field watches through a half-time in 1:16.71! (Skipping to the end game, the race was timed in 2:28.35 meaning the back half came in 1:11.56!)

As expected with another poorly timed Cornelio ride, he falls a half-length short as Saffron Hall prevails over Grand Rapport. Often times, you will hear that all of the jockeys in the Saratoga colony are top flight and interchangable. Watch the third race from today and explain how that is possible.

Just once, will a jockey in this colony PLEASE press the lead going two (or three) turns?

As a public service, someone should let Irad Ortiz know that he can now release the choke hold on Royal Blessing. Also, someone please let Alan Garcia know that the race has actually started.

Garcia has ridden Rapscallion 3 times with 2 wins and a second all on or pressing the lead. I guess he decided he was going to have success being a closer today?

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by pointman

Just curious, if the Saratoga jockey colony is not top flight, what colony is?

Exchange Javier Castellano and Cornelio Velasquez in that third race and the results are different. Many feel that watching the jockeys is unimportant at Saratoga and I tend to disagree greatly. Hence, my comment regarding interchanging those particular third race pilots.

As for the strength of the colony, I have always agreed that these (along with Del Mar's group) are very talented; that said, it is fairly clear that few if any can adequately judge pace and internal fractions in a race which is a major gap in their arsenal. If I have this wrong, why do we see so much discussion about NYRA-disease - also known as "clutch and grab"?

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Garcia has ridden Rapscallion 3 times with 2 wins and a second all on or pressing the lead. I guess he decided he was going to have success being a closer today?

This underscores my point about internal pace knowledge among the jockeys - Alan Garcia had Rapscallion seven lengths off the pace in 1:16 3/5. He needed his horse to come home in 1:09 and change to have something to say in that race. (Same argument regarding Cornelio Velasquez's ride.)

On a positive note, Joel Rosario brushed three-wide in the first turn with Shetan to get into the mid-pack flow after being left at the start.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Exchange Javier Castellano and Cornelio Velasquez in that third race and the results are different. Many feel that watching the jockeys is unimportant at Saratoga and I tend to disagree greatly. Hence, my comment regarding interchanging those particular third race pilots.

As for the strength of the colony, I have always agreed that these (along with Del Mar's group) are very talented; that said, it is fairly clear that few if any can adequately judge pace and internal fractions in a race which is a major gap in their arsenal. If I have this wrong, why do we see so much discussion about NYRA-disease - also known as "clutch and grab"?

I can't say I have ever heard anyone say that the jockey's in the Saratoga colony are interchangeable. Can anyone really say that you can use Abel Lezcano in place of Jose Lezcano and lose nothing?

Certainly the NY colony has been very frustrating all year with the grabbing instead of being aggressive with speed horses. However, there is no colony that is even close to being as good as the Saratoga colony, regardless of how frustrating the grabbing has been. The grabbing has not been limited to NY either.

The Del Mar colony is not even close to the Saratoga colony. When Edwin Maldonado is one of the top riders in a colony there can be no comparison to the Saratoga colony.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by pointman

I can't say I have ever heard anyone say that the jockey's in the Saratoga colony are interchangeable. Can anyone really say that you can use Abel Lezcano in place of Jose Lezcano and lose nothing?

Certainly the NY colony has been very frustrating all year with the grabbing instead of being aggressive with speed horses. However, there is no colony that is even close to being as good as the Saratoga colony, regardless of how frustrating the grabbing has been. The grabbing has not been limited to NY either.

The Del Mar colony is not even close to the Saratoga colony. When Edwin Maldonado is one of the top riders in a colony there can be no comparison to the Saratoga colony.

And Castellano times his move in the 7 just a bit too late.

[ADJMK]

It sure looked like V.E day gave Charge Now a solid bump down the lane and they don't even look at it. There goes my P4.

[Pants II]

Toga 10
$.50 tri 1,7/1,4,6,7/1,2,3,4,6,7 $12
$4 ex box 1,7
$20 win 1

[ScottJ]

It will be interesting to see how Race 10 is decided - the 10 clearly herded the 9 outwards into the 5; meanwhile, the 9 forced himself into a lane which did not exist in the stretch. This could clearly be a double-DQ.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

It will be interesting to see how Race 10 is decided - the 10 clearly herded the 9 outwards into the 5; meanwhile, the 9 forced himself into a lane which did not exist in the stretch. This could clearly be a double-DQ.

A single DQ takes place as they leave the "splitter" in the win slot and downgrade only the 10 horse behind the 5 horse.

Would love to be able to ask the stewards where the lane came from that allowed the 9 to split horses. Seriously, the first six days of this meet have been a rodeo event.