7/26: Saratoga (Jim Dandy; Amsterdam)

Kasept · #1 07-26-2014, 06:28 AM

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

With Friday's extended route as an example, you're hamstrung by knowledge that pace in these affairs never seems to materialize..

Most Likely: #5 Rapid Repair 2-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Magnolia Lane 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Engaginglee 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 La Majestique 10-1 8th

2nd: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Three state bred turf ALW routes today (2nd, 9th, 11th) and as I've said before, these frequently produce the most explosive exotics at Saratoga. Don't be shy about using the big numbers, though the top 3 ML choices are all bona fide players. Clement's Blue Pigeon makes 3yo debut and with typical development from juvy to soph, has potential to overwhelm..

Most Likely: #2 Blue Pigeon 5-2 4th
Best Value: #10 Mr Algebra 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Hidden Vow 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Ocala Jim 12-1 2nd

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Pletcher AE the pick if in. Brown's Aldrin a half to Tapit..

Most Likely: #9 Competitive Edge 9-5 WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #8 Aldrin 1-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Today's Agenda 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Bayerd 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Captain Moss 8-1 8th

4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Vecino 5-2 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #2 Sir Maurice 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Poppy's Watching 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Chang's Secret 15-1 6th

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Rocket Time 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Rankhasprivleges 12-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Forever Thing 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Away Game 20-1 WON ($58.00)

P5/P4 Grid:

New TicketMaker redesign, while good and more user-friendly overall, not making it easy to format a 'print' layout. A-B-C designations below as an alternative to build tickets..

1: 1-5 (A), 6 (B), 3-4 (C)
2: 2 (A), 7-10 (B), 1-3-6-8 (C)
3: 8-9 (A), -- (B), 3-4-5 (C)
4: 1 (A), 2-4 (B), 6-7 (C)
5: 2 (A), 1-8 (B), 6-7 (C)

6th: CLM, 3+, 12f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Razzle Jazil 12-1 WON ($17.60)
Next Best: #4 Knight's Nation 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Arc Above 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 State Flag 5-1 8th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Twang 4-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Rich 'n' Tuck 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Cost Affective 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Gombey Dancer 20-1 2nd

8th: 22nd Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

SCR #2 Rock Fall..

Most Likely: #8 Captain Serious 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Coup de Grace 3-1 WON ($5.70)
Best Value: #5 Tiznowforamerica 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Casiguapo 15-1 5th

9th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Lady's Lunar Luck 5-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Palace Dreams 5-1 WON ($13.40)
Best Value: #1 Run to Mama SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Miz Owell 3-1 4th

10th: 51st Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Tonalist 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Kid Cruz 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Legend 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Wicked Strong 2-1 WON ($6.40)

11th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Charity Reins likely 'ouchy' but he's competitive, will save ground, comes in on the barn change to Serpe and worth stab at huge price inopen affair..

Best Value: #1 Charity Reins 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Tapitation 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Poliziotto 5-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Noosh's Tale 12-1 6th

P4 Grid:

8: 8 (A), 4-5 (B), 1-3-6-7 (C)
9: 6 (A), 1-2-3 (B), 6-7 (C)
10: 4 (A), 5 (B), 2-6-7 (C)
11: 1-11 (A), 8-10 (B), 6-7-9-12 (C)

Good luck!
Steve