8/2: Saratoga (Whitney; Vanderbilt; Test)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


Should be a terrific day. Many vulnerable faves to take shots against..


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Hard as I tried, cannot get past the top choices..

Most Likely: #12 Dowse's Beach 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #8 Leroy Jr. 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Hooked Forever 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Il Vagabondo 30-1 8th


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Not a lot of speed signed on here. Someone (Brilliant Jewel? Ridingwiththedevil?) can dictate from up front. Note that Skidmore was 'fast early' target for Tea Time in tandem drill 7/26 and may show speed off the long layoff. Wondering if T2D, cutback, blinkers triple whammy doesn't get Guilty Verdict involved from the outset too. Tricky start to early quad..

Best Value: #4 Guilty Verdict 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Ridingwiththedevil 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Brilliant Jewel 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Candy Portenta 20-1 5th


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Strong Coffee 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #3 Face the Music 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Cordero 5-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Lucky Leroy Brown 15-1 4th


4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Eye-crossing set provides backdrop for as good a race as there is all day. Entire field separated by perhaps a length..

Most Likely: #6 Keening 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Malibu Holiday 20-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Lady of Gold 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Strike Charmer 4-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Tokyo Time 7-2 WON ($7.80)


5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Getting gate up to 10 babies should help boost prices and this race an immediate example. With money magnet Pletcher starters signed on (Royal Son; Mariano Intheninth) value will be found easily on firster candidates like Sir William Bruce & Burndines and 2nd out runners Evolution & Pride of Stride..

Best Value: #6 Pride of Stride 6-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #1 Royal Son 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Sir William Bruce 8-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Evolution 10-1 3rd


P5/P4 Grid:

1: 8-12 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
2: 4-7 (A), 6 (B), 10 (C)
3: 3-4 (A), 5 (B), 1-10 (C)
4: 6 (A), 1-2-10 (B), 3-5-8-9 (C)
5: 1-6 (A), - (B), 3-5-7-10 (C)


6th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

First level ALW but companion event to the insanely competitive 4th. This one is just maniacal. Taking shots with faves only marginally better than price players..

Best Value: #7 Pretty Syrie 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Granny Mc's Kitten 3-1 WON ($4.30)
Exotics Use: #11 Bartiromo 7-2 7th
Super Add: #9 Fashion Fund 5-1 3rd


7th: 11th De La Rose-R, F&M-4+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Hoping the entrymates outside and Filimbi spar up front and G1-exiting Ready Signal pounces in the stretch..

Most Likely: #6 Ready Signal 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Pianist 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Baffle Me 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Dayatthespa 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Filimbi 4-1 WON ($6.70)


8th: 30th Vanderbilt H. (G1), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Palace, Happy My Way & Bakkan SCR the obvious 'fastest' candidates. Vyjack working sharply for return to sprinting..

Most Likely: 5 Happy My Way 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Palace 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #7 Vyjack 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Bahamian Squall 8-1 7th


9th: 89th Test (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Thoroughly spectacular lineup. Pick your hand and play it. You won't be embarrassed no matter which missies you favor.. No one can say it better than Flounder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arZdeg_fL-I

Best Value: #9 Tea Time 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Sweet Reason 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Sweet Whiskey 6-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Fiftyshadesofgold 8-1 4th


10th: 87th Whitney (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)

As discussed this week, trust Eddie Plesa's judgement directing Itsmyluckyday towards this opportuity. Palace Malice still needs to be bested of course, but he'll be after the Lawyer Ron colt in the stretch. Interesting sidebar here is Lawyer Ron's own Whitney success and subsequent epic battle with Palace Malice sire Curlin in the Jockey Club Gold Cup 2 months later. Kind of fun that their sons tangle 7 years later..

Most Likely: #5 Palace Malice 1-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Itsmyluckyday 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Will Take Charge 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Departing 6-1 8th


11th: 2nd Lure-R, 4+, 8.5f-IT

If you've made it here live in multis, you're still confronted with a challenge as easily half this field, or more, looks like they can win. Hope as you arrive here it's been a great day!

Best Value: #3 Edge of Reality 20-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Plainview 5-1 DH-4th
Exotics Use: #4 Big Blue Kitten 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #9 Bio Pro 12-1 2nd


P4 Grid:

8: 5 (A), 1 (B), 4-7 (C)
9: 9 (A), 2-3-7 (B), 5-6-11-12 (C)
10: 5 (A), 1-4 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 4 (B), 7-8-9 (C)


Good luck!
Steve

[downtown denny]

Steve,
Surprised you didn't include either of Shug's 2yr old's at least for value plays.

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[downtown denny]

Steve,
My bad, I over looked the 3rd race. I see you did use Face the Music. Good luck today.

[ScottJ]

Saturday's card shows the impact of the racino-cash injection while also reminding us that the whole purse structure needs to be checked. The purses are as follows :

2nd Race - MSW 7f - $98,000
3rd Race - MSW 8.5f Turf - $98,000
4th Race - OC 62.5 8.5f Turf - $105,000
5th Race - MSW 6f - $98,000
6th Race - OC 75k 8.5f Turf - $100,000

However, the De La Rose (7th Race) and the Lure (11th Race) only go for $100,000 as named races.

While I am not sufficiently well versed to discuss the horsemen's purse account, it would seem obvious that increasing purses along the class road only makes sense. Today's purses are showing an extremely compression which should be checked.

Views?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Saturday's card shows the impact of the racino-cash injection while also reminding us that the whole purse structure needs to be checked. The purses are as follows :

2nd Race - MSW 7f - $98,000
3rd Race - MSW 8.5f Turf - $98,000
4th Race - OC 62.5 8.5f Turf - $105,000
5th Race - MSW 6f - $98,000
6th Race - OC 75k 8.5f Turf - $100,000

However, the De La Rose (7th Race) and the Lure (11th Race) only go for $100,000 as named races.

While I am not sufficiently well versed to discuss the horsemen's purse account, it would seem obvious that increasing purses along the class road only makes sense. Today's purses are showing an extremely compression which should be checked.

Views?

The MSW & ALW purses get enhancements on biggest stakes days to encourage/guarantee participation. The eye-popping $27,800,000 handle generated Sat. would seem to be a suitable reward for the boost program.

The 2 non-graded stakes Sat. were restricted affairs that don't need any other enhancement above the black type offered.

And be aware that distribution of the gaming revenue is dictated by legislative statute between the purse account and capital improvements. It has to go somewhere in terms of the purses and is being quite well used.

[ScottJ]

Very sorry to learn that Sir William Bruce (August 2nd, Race 5, MSW) collapsed after completing the Maiden Special Weight event and died after being unsaddled.