Saratoga Wednesday Aug. 13 Analysis

[Kitan]

EDIT: Updated after SCRs...

Race 2:
#2 Ziggy Moondust was caught three-wide no cover in his debut run in which he ran a tad greenly at times. Two morning breezes to prepare for this where I think he’ll take to the dirt and improve. Linda does well with second time starters, and it’s a plus to see Cornelio stay aboard. This is far from a tough event, and if there are no hidden monsters from the three debutants don’t be surprised to see a good price in the opener of the P5. In fact, I just looked back at my BRIS form from Stars and Stripes Day…at that point Linda was 1-47 with 10 ITM with FTS debuting on turf. Adds further intrigue.
#5 Warrior’s Hero had a massive gap in works leading up to his last, which was against open company. Back in two weeks and in against NY-breds again, but Wilson hasn’t done much at the meet so far and it’s a concern to see Ortiz sit the race out.
Hennig isn’t fantastic with FTS, but he had one that ran very close the other day and I think #4 Wildniteattheopera is a must use for the exotics and potentially as a cover.
#6 Broadway Bay closed well in his debut, but I’m not having much of him here. Slow work since, and Bruce Brown struggles with second timers at SAR…he’s 1-27 with 5 ITM overall, with the win coming in an open turf route. NY-bred dirt sprint here…
$1 Tri 2/4, 5, 6/ALL $12, $1 Tri 4, 5/2/ALL $8 ($20)
$5 Double 2/6, $2 Double 2/2, 3, 4 $5 ($11)
$1 Pick Three 2, 5/2, 3, 4, 6/3, 6 $16

Race 3:
#6 The Lost Tigress won her 3yo debut with the blinkers on, and had a terrible trip on the grass last time out. Baker puts her where she belongs, is fantastic third off the layoff, and she’ll be a mouth-watering price.
#2 Sheriffa is the one to beat, but she hasn’t quite shown an affinity to get her picture taken. Two of the FL shippers, #3 Letshootpool and #4 Readygetsgold, also have good chances at decent odds.
$1 Tri 6/2, 3, 4/ALL $15, $1 Tri 2, 3, 4/6/ALL $15 ($30)

Race 4:
If #3 Amulay gets a clean break then I expect her to be in front on the first turn. Speed has been deadly at 9f on the main track, with or without the slop. She’s previously taken them all the way in the mud and she’ll be the one to run down.
Interesting work off the claim for #6 Revealing Moment, who I otherwise wouldn’t even consider. Keeping that in mind, and not sure if he’ll run on the dirt, but if #8 scratches and he runs then I’ll throw her in. #2 Jane’s Heir couldn’t get past the loose leader in the exact same conditions last time out, but even with that in mind she needs to improve figure wise to win this.
I expected #9 One Penny Piece to SCR, and she is a complete unknown on the surface. Two wins on the AWT in England, but those races were very, very low quality. I'll watch.

Race 5:
#3 Keep Right is 6 0-5-1 in dirt races without blinkers and is the one to knock off.
#5 Kleptocrat was five lengths ahead of the horse who beat #3 by 9 last time, but Junior jumps ship to the 3. Have to use both.
I’m unsure about #8 Muberra’s Dream with the wet surface, but he’s been working up a storm on the dirt and this is a very puzzling jockey booking. May be up to something here.
#’s 1, 2, 9 also have chances to win (although I’m not using the 9), and #6 could hit the board at boxcars. Wide open event.

Race 6:
I took a shot on #1 Great Attack against the daunting Ben’s Cat on the Miss Preakness card. Disregard his run at PEN as he was wide and back quickly, and, on top of this being easier, Dutrow is flying at the meet. Only out of the money once in seven dirt starts and will be tough to beat here.
I liked the 7 & 8 as backups but they're out...
#12 Zee Bros’ form appears better than it is due to the events he contested. He comes back from Dubai with a stop/start worktab. Not sure about him. #13 Eastwood ran good (off a layoff) the one time he was on this footing, but the three weeks between final work preps is very unlike Pletcher and makes me extremely apprehensive. #14 Piquant wasn't able to get it done on most occasions at Parx, and his win did come against easier. Seems a bit camera shy and I'm on the fence.
I'm willing to give #3 Triple Cross a chance here. Wasn't overly disgraced last time, and the booking of Cornelio was always interesting. Well beaten in his only two dirt tries, but that was as a 2yo/3yo in G3 events and he is much more mature now. The rank outsiders always seem to win these short fields off the turf, and I see many faults in the other four. Why not?

The last four races have little appeal to me, but I’ll re-evaluate after SCRs.

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 2: 2, 5
Race 3: 2, 3, 4, 6
Race 4: 3, 6
Race 5: 3, 5, 8
Race 6: 1, 3
$57.60

$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 3: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Race 4: 3, 6
Race 5: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8
Race 6: 1, 3, 12
$90.00

Good luck!

[Kitan]

Rough day so far. Ziggy collapsing like that in the opener really left a bad taste for the rest of the card...

Small late P4 play:
2, 3, 4/2, 8, 9, 14/6/4, 5, 9 $21.60

3 of 4 again...didn't pay much though.