Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[brianwspencer]

There are lots of us following, just not necessarily commenting on every place horse or every exacta or every day's total. I've just been biding my time waiting for the Exacta to take over and win authoritatively. There just hasn't been much to say in the interim.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I think this thread is great. I'm a win/place better and reading this really has made me re-think a few things.

Ditto. Sometimes it's so easy to throw down a WP bet, but maybe that isn't the right thing to do.

[jman5581]

Are you guys tracking the % of winning bets to the total? Obviously the exacta will be smaller, just interested in what it turns out to be...

[2 Dollar Bill]

I enjoy reading the thread also... Just confused on one thing
Is it any 10-1's that runs first or second ? Yes I did a read back to the start of the thread, and wasnt sure. Thank you, and keep up the good work.

[Grits]

Thank you all for replying. I was concerned as the reads weren't increasing by much.

Even bigger thanks to Randall.

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by 2 Dollar Bill

I enjoy reading the thread also... Just confused on one thing
Is it any 10-1's that runs first or second ? Yes I did a read back to the start of the thread, and wasnt sure. Thank you, and keep up the good work.

Yup. Any time 10-1 or higher runs first or second, it counts as part of the sample.

[djw]

I don't post much because I do not have a lot to offer, but this has been far more interesting than reading poly vs. dirt go on and on. Thanks for the idea, as well as making us all take a step back and review how and why we wager the way we do! I am sure I am not along among the silent readers on this thread.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Yup. Any time 10-1 or higher runs first or second, it counts as part of the sample.

Thank you... [ I dont want to start another thread..lol] , but I wonder how this would hold up to ""second tier tracks""..
Seems to me that these tracks (being done now) have the betting public, putting the hammer down on the favs and letting some nice horses drop down to the 10-1 + odds. It will be interesting to see how this finishes up @ 250.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by djw

I don't post much because I do not have a lot to offer, but this has been far more interesting than reading poly vs. dirt go on and on. Thanks for the idea, as well as making us all take a step back and review how and why we wager the way we do! I am sure I am not along among the silent readers on this thread.

djw, thank you for your thoughtful comments. I hope that you'll rethink posting . . .handicapping is most welcome--always; as is all opinion and thought regarding the game. No one person here has far more to offer than the next person hitting submit.

Take care.

[randallscott35]

DAY 18 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 28, 2007 Carryover EXACTA BETTING +$310.50

Aqueduct: Race 2-- PL: 11.20
Aqueduct: Race 9-- PL: 18.00

Santa Anita: Race 2-- PL: 11.20



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $2249.30 PL $1979.20
DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$270.10

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (129) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 46 (35.7%)

Chip Chip Chip...Every day I sit there and say "No Whammy, No Whammy...."---they need to bring that game show back.


Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--411

[randallscott35]

DAY 19 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 29, 2007 Carryover EXACTA BETTING +$270.10

Aqueduct: Race 7-- PL: 14.80
Aqueduct: Race 8-- PL: 13.00

Gulfstream: Race 7-- PL: 12.80

Santa Anita: Race 4-- PL: 13.20
Santa Anita: Race 6-- PL: 15.80
Santa Anita: Race 7-- PL: 9.40



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $2249.30 PL $2058.20
DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$191.10

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (135) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 46 (34.1%)


As Grits informed us that she looks like a young Kathleen Turner I thought back to how goofy but likeable Romancing the Stone was. Kathleen Turner was sexy back then, she had that phone sex deep voice...she has since let herself go and went naked on Broadway pushing 200 pounds. But she will always have those 80's movies with Michael Douglas who sometimes looks worse than Kurt Douglas these days....Let's hope Grits has held it together better. We will find out at the Spa this summer....As for today, a nice steady performance. Nothing flashy, but I am under 200 behind now which is striking distance.


Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--436 ***A Note on this--in real terms the amount of races to get the sample would be smaller if this weren't the season of smaller fields for the tracks used---for example, spring/summer fields at NY are significantly larger and would yield bigger prices and make this thing go faster. My point is simply that the Total Races run which Grits wanted me to add at the beginning has virtually no redeeming value when every Cali weekday race has 6 horses.

[Grits]

NO, NO, NO, NO, NO. The question asked was "who do you look like"? Rand, I didn't say that I look like a young Kathleen Turner.

I said, "I've been told that I look like Kathleen Turner before she aged and gained so much weight!!" Now that's quite different, than someone saying, "hey look at me, I look like a film star."

Get this correct, please. That's a bit boastful wouldn't you say!

Though yes, I have aged better than Turner, THAT I can, and will say, honestly. If I ever remotely come within fifty pounds of tipping the scales at 200, you talk about TILT . . . you won't be seeing Grits anywhere, much less Saratoga. No one will.

And besides, I'm still ahead in this deal. Hopefully, I'll have a better day tomorrow.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I look in on it pretty much every day. If the banter runs out that's fine.
But I love studies and numbers so I would say keep it up. Its interesting to people that spend time thinking about their wagers.

And thanks to Randall for following through with the data collection and posting.

ditto, ditto, ditto.

This has been a great study. A near text case example in how a good test should be clearly outlined at the start and (hopefully) carried through to the end.

fwiw, I still think Randall's side will prevail.

--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

ditto, ditto, ditto.

This has been a great study. A near text case example in how a good test should be clearly outlined at the start and (hopefully) carried through to the end.

fwiw, I still think Randall's side will prevail.

--Dunbar

I don't. It will be close. Need that exacta % to get back to 30 to have a shot.

[randallscott35]

DAY 20 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 30, 2007 Carryover EXACTA BETTING +$191.10

Aqueduct: Race 3-- PL: 6.50 EX: 19.60
Aqueduct: Race 6-- PL: 14.20
Aqueduct: Race 7-- PL: 11.20

Gulfstream: Race 3-- PL: 23.00
Gulfstream: Race 4-- PL: 13.00
Gulfstream: Race 5-- PL: 11.20 + 15.40


Santa Anita: Race 1-- PL: 9.40 EX: 28.00
Santa Anita: Race 4-- PL: 25.20
Santa Anita: Race 6-- PL: 10.60
Santa Anita: Race 7-- PL: 15.00
Santa Anita: Race 8-- PL: 29.40



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $2296.90 PL $2242.30
DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$54.60

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (147) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 48 (32.7%)


Maybe I was a closer all along? Seeing that shaving thread take that kind of turn today was interesting... Super Saturday awaits. Discreet Cat by 3. And Invasor not second. That's the call from this corner. Good luck to the players tomorrow.


Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--462

[Grits]

Rand, maybe I will catch a few tomorrow. I hope so. Thank you for posting.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $2296.90 PL $2242.30
DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$54.60

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (147) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 48 (32.7%)


Maybe I was a closer all along? Seeing that shaving thread take that kind of turn today was interesting... Super Saturday awaits. Discreet Cat by 3. And Invasor not second. That's the call from this corner. Good luck to the players tomorrow.
Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--462

O ye' of little faith. I'll still book action on the place bet.

And I'd book action on Invasor vs Discreet Cat, too. They're both outstanding horses, but Invasor is the proven entity.

--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

DAY 21 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 31, 2007 Carryover EXACTA BETTING +$54.60

Aqueduct: Race 4-- PL: 6.70 EX: 37.80
Aqueduct: Race 5-- PL: 7.50


Gulfstream: Race 1-- PL: 21.20 EX: 76.20
Gulfstream: Race 10-- PL: 6.20 EX: 22.20

Santa Anita: Race 1-- PL: 17.00
Santa Anita: Race 2-- PL: 9.60
Santa Anita: Race 3-- PL: 10.80
Santa Anita: Race 5-- PL: 10.20 EX: 45.80
Santa Anita: Race 10-- PL: 12.20



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $2478.90 PL $2343.70
DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$135.20

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (156) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 52 (33.3%)

Two steps forward, one step back. Today was the step back. So you know what tomorrow is......


Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--491

[Grits]

I did catch a few today didn't I? That's good. Tomorrow is Sunday, heaven help me. Every chalk going in the gate will run 3rd . . . let's put some money on it. LOL

Thank you for posting Rand.

[randallscott35]

DAY 23 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) APRIL 1, 2007 Carryover EXACTA BETTING +$135.20

Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 20.60 + 19.60
Gulfstream: Race 9-- PL: 27.00
Gulfstream: Race 10-- PL: 12.20

Santa Anita: Race 1-- PL: 14.60 EX: 58.00
Santa Anita: Race 2-- PL: 8.60
Santa Anita: Race 8-- PL: 13.80 EX: 86.20
Santa Anita: Race 9-- PL: 7.40 EX: 29.60



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $2652.70 PL $2467.50
DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$185.20

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (164) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 55 (33.5%)


Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--510