Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

randallscott35 · #1 03-07-2007, 09:46 PM

Alright here it is. (Mods-if you would, you can leave this in the Paddock for a day and then transfer it to the Contest Forum--thanks)

This will be based on a 250 Race sample starting 3/8/07 and running till enough races are run.

Any horse 10-1 or over finishing second(OR FIRST) will be given a place payout((read addendum at end of Paragraph) (obviously based on a 2$ base bet)---that will then be checked for the favorite of the race being on top...If they are, the 2$ exacta payout will go in the Exacta column. If they aren't it will still count as a race towards the 250. (ADDENDUM---as Andy rightfully stated I have short changed the Place side as if the longshot won the race you would get both the place and the win---that must be added as well)

The tracks used will all be large tracks with large pools that aren't skewed.
AQ---GP---SA until the contest is over. Somedays there will be a number of races that qualify and others I'm sure very few.

I will post after all the races are run for a given day and give a breakdown by track and then also the overall breakdown until its over. Anyone who wants to double check the numbers is of course welcome to. It will take a couple of weeks but it is worth it to have a larger sample spread against a few tracks.

So, let the games begin tomorrow...GRITS we can pm each other and figure out something to bet on this. Good luck.

blackthroatedwind · #2 03-07-2007, 09:50 PM

You're obviously welcome to do it this way, or any way you like, but looking at past results will be faster and provide the same statistical evidence.

randallscott35 · #3 03-07-2007, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're obviously welcome to do it this way, or any way you like, but looking at past results will be faster and provide the same statistical evidence.

True, but it will kind of fun to keep track this way. As you said if you sample any given month it could vary widely so I'd rather take my chances from here on in...A true entire year study would settle it but this kind of sample should do the trick.

Grits · #4 03-07-2007, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're obviously welcome to do it this way, or any way you like, but looking at past results will be faster and provide the same statistical evidence.

If going back we could look at GP, SA, and Turfw or AQ since Jan.9, or their respective opening dates. Though I no longer get Simulcast Weekly.

Scav · #5 03-07-2007, 09:54 PM

a) You would probably box with the favorite thus it should count if the 10/1 horse wins and the favorite runs 2nd or vice versa

b) anything over 20/1 is a stretch IMO, should be between 10/1 and 20/1 the way Andy did it first.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #6 03-07-2007, 09:55 PM

chalk players...lol at least 1/2 of it

randallscott35 · #7 03-07-2007, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

a) You would probably box with the favorite thus it should count if the 10/1 horse wins and the favorite runs 2nd or vice versa

b) anything over 20/1 is a stretch IMO, should be between 10/1 and 20/1 the way Andy did it first.

The way Grits described it is the way it will run. Boxing it has nothing to do with place betting....And over 20-1 will help prove the case that betting to place is the better option. Getting the 50-1 to finish second will not feel good when the fave is not on top in her situation....That's the way it goes.

Grits · #8 03-07-2007, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

a) You would probably box with the favorite thus it should count if the 10/1 horse wins and the favorite runs 2nd or vice versa

b) anything over 20/1 is a stretch IMO, should be between 10/1 and 20/1 the way Andy did it first.

Nope, no go Scav. We're not talking about boxing the exacta. Flat, straight favorite, over the longshot only.

Grits · #9 03-07-2007, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

chalk players...lol at least 1/2 of it

What are you talking about Hooves?

blackthroatedwind · #10 03-07-2007, 09:57 PM

The box is irrelevent to this particular discussion. We are ONLY looking at place vs. second to the favorite.

We could also compare a $10 wager in another study....$6 win $4 place vs. $4 win, $2 Box with favorite and $2 second to the favorite.

Scav · #11 03-07-2007, 09:58 PM

I came in on the ass end of the conversation and I look like a donkey...CARRY ON!!!

randallscott35 · #12 03-07-2007, 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The box is irrelevent to this particular discussion. We are ONLY looking at place vs. second to the favorite.

We could also compare a $10 wager in another study....$6 win $4 place vs. $4 win, $2 Box with favorite and $2 second to the favorite.

Don't kill me Andy. LOL. Let's start with this the way it is. Haha.

blackthroatedwind · #13 03-07-2007, 09:58 PM

I will look at past data and make two groups....10-1 and up and only 10-1 to 20-1.

This should be fun and informative.

blackthroatedwind · #14 03-07-2007, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Don't kill me Andy. LOL. Let's start with this the way it is. Haha.

The second one is much harder ( and will sometimes result in using both the first and second finisher ). The first is best because it's cut and dried.

Grits · #15 03-07-2007, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

The way Grits described it is the way it will run. Boxing it has nothing to do with place betting....And over 20-1 will help prove the case that betting to place is the better option. Getting the 50-1 to finish second will not feel good when the fave is not on top in her situation....That's the way it goes.

Dream on darlin', and let's see how many of those I pine over.

randallscott35 · #16 03-07-2007, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will look at past data and make two groups....10-1 and up and only 10-1 to 20-1.

This should be fun and informative.

Let's do the data going forward. I want to have a fresh outlook on this and not expect the data to go in a certain direction.

randallscott35 · #17 03-07-2007, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits

Dream on darlin', and let's see how many of those I pine over.

You are the best....I pm'd you. Check it. Good luck my dear.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #18 03-07-2007, 10:03 PM

someone has alot of time on there hands.......this about place betting vs doing an exacta with said horse on top of a lodigical fav 5/2 ..the exacta will come out on to 90 perc of the time..why the big study

randallscott35 · #19 03-07-2007, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

someone has alot of time on there hands.......this about place betting vs doing an exacta with said horse on top of a lodigical fav 5/2 ..the exacta will come out on to 90 perc of the time..why the big study

B/c I feel like it and it will be fun. And I disagree with you. 90% of the time is if the fave comes in. Doesn't always happen that way.

ArlJim78 · #20 03-07-2007, 10:05 PM

If all this brainpower could somehow be harnessed to benefit mankind, Al Gore could rest at night.