Question, Seriously

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was pretty impressive. Not sure what to make of him at this point.

He's one that I always expect to lose, but seems to come running no matter what.

With that said, obviously his style poses a problem heading towards the Derby, as traffic can kill his chances in an instant.

I also don't see a TON of speedball horses heading for the Derby yet. Were this shaping up like Derbies past, I would be inclined to love him based on a total pace meltdown, but at least at this point on the trail I'm not seeing a Sinister Minister/Keyed Entry type of pace meltdown. It may change, but in that kind of race his style could have been very effective given the speed at which he picks horses off, but this year (thus far) doesn't seem to be setting the table for a horse coming from 17th place a half mile out.

Though when he is impressive, he is darn impressive, so who knows.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Though when he is impressive, he is darn impressive, so who knows.

Horses that make big sweeping runs almost always look better than they are. And, as you said, with his style he opens himself up to trouble. Deep closers are rarely Derby winners.

I still don't see him winning at 1 1/4, but I have never been a fan of this horse, and while he was better than I truly expected today I am far from sold.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

He's one that I always expect to lose, but seems to come running no matter what.

With that said, obviously his style poses a problem heading towards the Derby, as traffic can kill his chances in an instant.

I also don't see a TON of speedball horses heading for the Derby yet. Were this shaping up like Derbies past, I would be inclined to love him based on a total pace meltdown, but at least at this point on the trail I'm not seeing a Sinister Minister/Keyed Entry type of pace meltdown. It may change, but in that kind of race his style could have been very effective given the speed at which he picks horses off, but this year (thus far) doesn't seem to be setting the table for a horse coming from 17th place a half mile out.

Though when he is impressive, he is darn impressive, so who knows.

I admit I've always liked this guy, but certainly understand the skeptism of others about his derby chances... especially considering his running style. But so far, I don't see any other horses seperating themselves from this 3yo class.. so my attitude is he's as good as any i've seen.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Horses that make big sweeping runs almost always look better than they are. And, as you said, with his style he opens himself up to trouble. Deep closers are rarely Derby winners.

I still don't see him winning at 1 1/4, but I have never been a fan of this horse, and while he was better than I truly expected today I am far from sold.

I pretty much always think he is going to lose. I've never been on the bandwagon, though I might slightly be on it now.

With that said, I think that without the antics on the backstretch by Ketchikan and Co., that that one could have made a far better showing and actually had a shot at the win. When it all boils down, I was more impressed with that one than CQ, but it's hard to really knock CQ today because he got the job done with room to spare and looked good doing it.

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't disagree that his effort, especially being so lightly raced, was OK. Why was he on the front end...in fast fractions no less?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't disagree that his effort, especially being so lightly raced, was OK. Why was he on the front end...in fast fractions no less?

Not sure, but he looked real bad pulling towards the front. It wasn't a pretty thing to see when he took the lead on the backstretch. From mid-turn to mid-backstretch the horse was a total mess and totally out of his jock's control. It was awful to watch and in retrospect to think about the energy wasted on such antics.

[ArlJim78]

I've been a fan from the beginning because CQ has on several occasions shown a burst, something very athletic. With that said i am in no way sold that with another 3/16 in heavy traffic he will have what it takes. The only reason I'm keeping an open mind relative to CQ and the derby is because of a lack of real standouts amongst the competition this year.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I've been a fan from the beginning because CQ has on several occasions shown a burst, something very athletic. With that said i am in no way sold that with another 3/16 in heavy traffic he will have what it takes. The only reason I'm keeping an open mind relative to CQ and the derby is because of a lack of real standouts amongst the competition this year.

I can't disagree with the last part. It seems that more and more these days horses move up simply by not running.

The Gotham was downright ugly. They barely went relatively faster than NW1X NY Breds in the finale. The winner had a perfect trip and was the beneficiary of many poorly judged rides. I simply don't understand why these riders don't seem to have any game plan going into the race. Speedballs went 24 and a piece and 49 and a piece and other speed types were in full grab. Shouldn't the favorite have taken advantage of his post and come out running and maybe try to outrun Cowtown Cat for the tuck on the first turn? How about Coa on Longley? What was his plan? That entire race was a disaster...save patient Ramon who luckily drew the rail.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can't disagree with the last part. It seems that more and more these days horses move up simply by not running.

The Gotham was downright ugly. They barely went relatively faster than NW1X NY Breds in the finale. The winner had a perfect trip and was the beneficiary of many poorly judged rides. I simply don't understand why these riders don't seem to have any game plan going into the race. Speedballs went 24 and a piece and 49 and a piece and other speed types were in full grab. Shouldn't the favorite have taken advantage of his post and come out running and maybe try to outrun Cowtown Cat for the tuck on the first turn? How about Coa on Longley? What was his plan? That entire race was a disaster...save patient Ramon who luckily drew the rail.

Yeah, speaking of Ramon, the guy showed patience and some balls.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can't disagree with the last part. It seems that more and more these days horses move up simply by not running.

The Gotham was downright ugly. They barely went relatively faster than NW1X NY Breds in the finale. The winner had a perfect trip and was the beneficiary of many poorly judged rides. I simply don't understand why these riders don't seem to have any game plan going into the race. Speedballs went 24 and a piece and 49 and a piece and other speed types were in full grab. Shouldn't the favorite have taken advantage of his post and come out running and maybe try to outrun Cowtown Cat for the tuck on the first turn? How about Coa on Longley? What was his plan? That entire race was a disaster...save patient Ramon who luckily drew the rail.

Well obviously. How Sweet He Is ran second last, right? Clearly it was a strange race if he wasn't bounding down the track to get the win by a nose.

Forget it ever happened.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Well obviously. How Sweet He Is ran second last, right? Clearly it was a strange race if he wasn't bounding down the track to get the win by a nose.

Forget it ever happened.

He was second to last. Please....you made me nervous for a second.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was second to last. Please....you made me nervous for a second.

Also known as barely out the of money.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Also known as barely out the of money.

To more people than we care to believe.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

im no fan of quay..but vs these he looked good ..yet anouther weak field..he will get smoked in the derby imo and take lott of cash down..with em..and how can you guys even follow ny .the inner is evil..back away..

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

To more people than we care to believe.

Of course you know I'm joking (just gotta make sure these days) and still bitter from the last time he ran.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

im no fan of quay..but vs these he looked good ..yet anouther weak field..he will get smoked in the derby imo and take lott of cash down..with em..and how can you guys even follow ny .the inner is evil..back away..

I think most 3yo stakes races have been 'weak fields' so far this year.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I think most 3yo stakes races have been 'weak fields' so far this year.

true..snobiz has problems ..made scat look like a good horse..yesh i hope matz puts that one in the mix...

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not at all suprised Circular Quay won but I have no idea how he could have been considered a single. You make MUCH more money over time playing against horses like him than on them. I used him defensively ( and blew up with Get Ready Bertie ) but hardly considered him a single. Truth be told he was a bit of a sucker horse, bet heavily because of his connections, and not his pps.

The screws seem to be tightened up very snug on these Pletcher 3 year olds right now.I just wonder if they are gunna be over the top come the big day.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

The screws seem to be tightened up very snug on these Pletcher 3 year olds right now.I just wonder if they are gunna be over the top come the big day.

If they are genuinely good horses, and I am in no way implying they are not, they should improve. Good horses hold their form. Surely after today's performance by Einstein the bounce adherants learned something.

Good horses don't bounce ( and I don't think mediocre ones do either ).

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If they are genuinely good horses, and I am in no way implying they are not, they should improve. Good horses hold their form. Surely after today's performance by Einstein the bounce adherants learned something.

Good horses don't bounce ( and I don't think mediocre ones do either ).

No,I am not necessarily talking about a big bounce.What I am saying is that the winner of this last B.C. Juvenile would appear to have been ready to give his peak 2 year old performance on B.C. Day. I think John Sheriffs also had Giacomo read for his peak 3 year old performance on Derby Day.Barbaro the same.They all were ready to peak on that day.I just think that sometimes that may be the reason why Pletcher hasn't been dominant on Derby day,and on this last Breeders Cup Day(the horses don't peak on those days.....they peak in other races..on other days.)Dreaming of Anna ran probably (for her) just an o.k. race on B.C. Day.She (most likely) could have been upset if one of those fillies had peaked like Street did in the Juvenile.