Perhaps the best female to race in the last 5 years?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think it's fairly clear that you do not understand how to classify horses properly or understand the development and other issues that often come into play when fillies and mares take on 2YO and 3YO colts vs. older horses at various distances and on various surfaces.

Rather than allowing your biases to impact your understanding going forward, I think you'd be better off listening to what I am saying because that's one of the thing I have researched for decades.

That's the method I use when I am trying to learn from people that know more about some aspects of the game than I do.

Well, when you know more than I do, I'll listen to you instead of think of you as a simpleton.

In the meantime, maybe you should listen to me. Or hell, even RHT1985.

[Smooth Operator]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think it's fairly clear that you do not understand how to classify horses properly or understand the development and other issues that often come into play when fillies and mares take on 2YO and 3YO colts vs. older horses at various distances and on various surfaces.

Rather than allowing your biases to impact your understanding going forward, I think you'd be better off listening to what I am saying because that's one of the thing I have researched for decades.

That's the method I use when I am trying to learn from people that know more about some aspects of the game than I do.

Indian boy is a classic internet punk with minimal knowledge about the game, CH.

You're wasting your time trying to reason with the arrogant loser.

Best to just ignore him like so many others on the board have done over the years…

[Indian Charlie]

LOL.

That one actually did make me laugh out loud.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It's not common for any filly to beat the best 3YO colts in the world in a Classic race. Only the special ones can do that. But it's easier than beating the best fully matured older horses at Classic distances on dirt.

Which makes Jolypha's third in the 1992 Classic even more amazing. It was her first start in North America and her first start on dirt. She finished two lengths behind 3yo HOY AP Indy and a 1/2 length behind champion older horse Pleasant Tap. Behind her were very good older horses like Strike The Gold, Hollywood Gold Cup winner Sultry Song, Strub winner Defensive Play, Meadowlands Cup winner and Classic runner-up Twilight Agenda, and Hollywood Gold Cup winner Marquetry.

[Danzig]

and here i figured the distaffers didn't get a lot of wins vs boys because there aren't that many attempts made here. now, overseas, it's far more common..and it seems there are far more celebrated females because of that. goldikova isn't considered special because once a year she ventures a start vs males-unlike other mares who are allowed to be brave once a year. goldikova, ouija board, sunline, makybe diva, etc will be fondly remembered because they repeatedly took on the best in open races, paying their owners and bettors well for taking the chance. before freddy head made history with his three-peating filly, he won twice as a rider on miesque, another great mare who wasn't treated like a hothouse flower.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Danzig

and here i figured the distaffers didn't get a lot of wins vs boys because there aren't that many attempts made here. now, overseas, it's far more common..and it seems there are far more celebrated females because of that. goldikova isn't considered special because once a year she ventures a start vs males-unlike other mares who are allowed to be brave once a year. goldikova, ouija board, sunline, makybe diva, etc will be fondly remembered because they repeatedly took on the best in open races, paying their owners and bettors well for taking the chance. before freddy head made history with his three-peating filly, he won twice as a rider on miesque, another great mare who wasn't treated like a hothouse flower.

Danzig, he qualified his statement saying that it is for dirt only. Therefore, Europe doesn't count.

Since older mares race against older males in this country, at a classic distance, about once every 3-4 years, I guess he's right!

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Which makes Jolypha's third in the 1992 Classic even more amazing. It was her first start in North America and her first start on dirt. She finished two lengths behind 3yo HOY AP Indy and a 1/2 length behind champion older horse Pleasant Tap. Behind her were very good older horses like Strike The Gold, Hollywood Gold Cup winner Sultry Song, Strub winner Defensive Play, Meadowlands Cup winner and Classic runner-up Twilight Agenda, and Hollywood Gold Cup winner Marquetry.

I think that was a magnificent performance. Unfortunately very few handicappers talk about her or comprehend what she did there because they don't comprehend the differences between turf and dirt racing and how much more difficult it is to do that at 10F on dirt.

I was and still am less familiar with Jolypha's overall record, her trips etc... than I am with most US based horses, but I think it's highly likely she was a great mare if that wasn't a "one time" peak dirt performance or trip that enabled her to run big. Even though I was a huge fan and serious handicapper at the time, I don't recall the details of that race and didn't have a full understanding and appreciation for what she did at the time either.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Danzig

and here i figured the distaffers didn't get a lot of wins vs boys because there aren't that many attempts made here. now, overseas, it's far more common..and it seems there are far more celebrated females because of that. goldikova isn't considered special because once a year she ventures a start vs males-unlike other mares who are allowed to be brave once a year. goldikova, ouija board, sunline, makybe diva, etc will be fondly remembered because they repeatedly took on the best in open races, paying their owners and bettors well for taking the chance. before freddy head made history with his three-peating filly, he won twice as a rider on miesque, another great mare who wasn't treated like a hothouse flower.

Danzig,

I am sure you understand that turf and dirt races develop differently.

Turf paces tend to be a lot slower and put a premium on late speed. That tends to bring the horses together because they often don't do any serious and demanding running until the final few furlongs.

As a result of this development issue, the gap between fillies/mares and males is smaller on turf than it is on dirt where the very best horses often run hard from start to finish, exhaust, and put away their inferior rivals.

The gap between the average winning speed figure for males and females on turf tends to be narrower all the way down the class spectrum than it is on dirt further providing objective evidence for what we observe on the track.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think that was a magnificent performance. Unfortunately very few handicappers talk about her or comprehend what she did there because they don't comprehend the differences between turf and dirt racing and how much more difficult it is to do that at 10F on dirt.

Clearly you do not comprehend the concept like you think you do.

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I was and still am less familiar with Jolypha's overall record, her trips etc... than I am with most US based horses, but I think it's highly likely she was a great mare if that wasn't a "one time" peak dirt performance or trip that enabled her to run big. Even though I was a huge fan and serious handicapper at the time, I don't recall the details of that race and didn't have a full understanding and appreciation for what she did at the time either.

She was a three year old filly coming from Europe.

She is a full sister to Dancing Brave (a beloved turf horse in Europe), so come to think of it, I now understand your theory about why a turf filly is more likely to beat males than a dirt one.

It finally came together for me.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Danzig,

I am sure you understand that turf and dirt races develop differently.

Turf paces tend to be a lot slower and put a premium on late speed. That tends to bring the horses together because they often don't do any serious and demanding running until the final few furlongs.

As a result of this development issue, the gap between fillies/mares and males is smaller on turf than it is on dirt where the very best horses often run hard from start to finish, exhaust, and put away their inferior rivals.

The gap between the average winning speed figure for males and females on turf tends to be narrower all the way down the class spectrum than it is on dirt further providing objective evidence for what we observe on the track.

Wow, in less than 24 hours, you've bested The Bid's all time stupidest Derby Trail post!

Jesus, what the hell is wrong with me? I was warned in a PM not to engage you in a dialog of any sort, that we'd all be sorry.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Wow, in less than 24 hours, you've bested The Bid's all time stupidest Derby Trail post!

Jesus, what the hell is wrong with me? I was warned in a PM not to engage you in a dialog of any sort, that we'd all be sorry.

It's clear you have no intention of having a serious conversation or learning anything about the gaps between fillies/mares and colts on various surfaces or at various stages in their development. But perhaps some others will appreciate it.

It's more complex than this, but here's a start.

Here are the Beyer Pars for each of the relevant BC races.

Juvenile Colts - 99
Juvevile Fillies - 95

Turf Fillies - 107
Turf Colts -112
Turf Colts Mile - 111

Ladies Classic - 108
BC Classic - 117
Sprint - 113

2YO Filly Turf - 86
2YO Colt Turf - 88

Notice how the gap between the Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile Colts on dirt is only 4 points and the gap between the Ladies Classic and BC Classic is the more typical 9 point spread we usually see between fully developed colts and fillies at various classes.

That's partially because colts tend to develop a little later. That in turn makes it a tad easier for top notch early developing fillies like Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches etc.. to be competitive with 3YO colts in the spring and summer until the colts eventually move past them.

Does anyone actually believe that Rags to Riches would have continued developing like Curlin did after the spring/summer and won the Classic that year if she remained sound? Curlin developing further was practically a given.

It was no shock to me that the best we saw of Rachel Alexandra came as a 3YO and that she didn't develop after that. I predicted that was the most likely scenario repeatedly when the issue came up elsewhere.

Notice that the gap between turf classes is narrower than what we see on dirt also. That's true at virtually every class on turf top to bottom.

Notice that the gap between 2YO fillies and 2YO colts on turf is almost non existent because both physical development and race development issues are at work.

Notice that there is a 4 point difference between the Classic and the Sprint even though both are open to best older males.

These kinds of PARs help express the difficultly of moving from one class to another, but they are further supported by other research I have done and the results we see in real life.

The toughest class move is to go from racing against fillies and mares to racing against older horses at classic distances on dirt like Zenyatta just tried.

It is typically easier to make the sex move in the sprint.

It is typically easier to make the sex move on turf.

It is typically easier to make the sex move among younger horses.

It is typically easiest to make the sex move on turf among younger horses.

Perhaps now you will understand the results of races and why certain class moves are tried more often than others better.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Clearly you do not comprehend the concept like you think you do.





She was a three year old filly coming from Europe.

She is a full sister to Dancing Brave (a beloved turf horse in Europe), so come to think of it, I now understand your theory about why a turf filly is more likely to beat males than a dirt one.

It finally came together for me.

I know she was a 3YO filly from Europe. That's what made the performance so extraordinary. What I don't have is trip notes or a familiarity with her competition in Europe before she came here to evaluate her entire career and put it in perspective.

[Smooth Operator]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It's clear you have no intention of having a serious conversation or learning anything about the gaps between fillies/mares and colts on various surfaces or at various stages in their development. But perhaps some others will appreciate it.

It's more complex than this, but here's a start.

Here are the Beyer Pars for each of the relevant BC races.

Juvenile Colts - 99
Juvevile Fillies - 95

Turf Fillies - 107
Turf Colts -112
Turf Colts Mile - 111

Ladies Classic - 108
BC Classic - 117
Sprint - 113

2YO Filly Turf - 86
2YO Colt Turf - 88

Notice how the gap between the Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile Colts on dirt is only 4 points and the gap between the Ladies Classic and BC Classic is the more typical 9 point spread we usually see between fully developed colts and fillies at various classes.

That's partially because colts tend to develop a little later. That in turn makes it a tad easier for top notch early developing fillies like Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches etc.. to be competitive with 3YO colts in the spring and summer until the colts eventually move past them.

Does anyone actually believe that Rags to Riches would have continued developing like Curlin did after the spring/summer and won the Classic that year if she remained sound? Curlin developing further was practically a given.

It was no shock to me that the best we saw of Rachel Alexandra came as a 3YO and that she didn't develop after that. I predicted that was the most likely scenario repeatedly when the issue came up elsewhere.

Notice that the gap between turf classes is narrower than what we see on dirt also. That's true at virtually every class on turf top to bottom.

Notice that the gap between 2YO fillies and 2YO colts on turf is almost non existent because both physical development and race development issues are at work.

Notice that there is a 4 point difference between the Classic and the Sprint even though both are open to best older males.

These kinds of PARs help express the difficultly of moving from one class to another, but they are further supported by other research I have done and the results we see in real life.

The toughest class move is to go from racing against fillies and mares to racing against older horses at classic distances on dirt like Zenyatta just tried.

It is typically easier to make the sex move in the sprint.

It is typically easier to make the sex move on turf.

It is typically easier to make the sex move among younger horses.

It is typically easiest to make the sex move on turf among younger horses.

Perhaps now you will understand the results of races and why certain class moves are tried more often than others better.

Great post, CH

In addition to Indian boy, should be mandatory reading for a number of other (clueless) posters on this board…