KEE SEPT SALE: DeDe Biles' Hips to Watch

[Gaelic Storm]

The 11th horse is Fire On Ice. Had the look of a promising horse when he won his debut big at Saratoga first-time out for John Kimmel. This son of Unbridled's Song unfortunately got hurt training for the Champagne and has not started again.

Fire on Ice is back in the first race on Thursday at Belmont.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Doug just proved that Book 1 is not the top end of the market. The top end of the market is random, completely fn random. Book 1 colts are a fairy tale which is plausible, book 1 fillies have a day in the sun after you come to the conclusion they suck.

Not sure what point you're addressing. Doug suggested that sales toppers ARE the place to play if you're buying yearlings.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

There are success stories taking any and every approach whether yearling or 2yo-in-training including those that have great track records picking out projectable yearlings at middle of the road prices and those buying nice bargains at a place like the Timonium sale.

There are success stories with some of the people who buy lottery tickets as well.

A lot of people who are given credit as having a shrewd eye for a horse are completely full of crap. Just listen to some of them talk and it's pretty apparent they are basically wanna-be psychics who know almost nothing about horse racing but are skilled enough at fooling the right kind of people.

Walter Vosburgh wrote a funny piece about a guy who was considered one of the most brilliant buyers of his day -- and he was completely ignorant to all the points of a horse and to pedigree.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Not sure what point you're addressing. Doug suggested that sales toppers ARE the place to play if you're buying yearlings.

If you can't pinhook and don't have an entire operation in place to do that -- yes, buying the sales topper is far more likely to give you a better ROI than buying in the low to mid range.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are success stories with some of the people who buy lottery tickets as well.

A lot of people who are given credit as having a shrewd eye for a horse are completely full of crap. Just listen to some of them talk and it's pretty apparent they are basically wanna-be psychics who know almost nothing about horse racing but are skilled enough at fooling the right kind of people.

Walter Vosburgh wrote a funny piece about a guy who was considered one of the most brilliant buyers of his day -- and he was completely ignorant to all the points of a horse and to pedigree.

Your man in Erie! The lotto whisperer! (Or was it scratch off whisperer? Or both..)

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Your man in Erie! The lotto whisperer! (Or was it scratch off whisperer? Or both..)

He hit a $20 scratch off lotto ticket for $1 million!

Sadly, he has just moved back in with his parents ... so the Erie rumor mill goes.

[joeydb]

At first I thought this said Kasept sale instead of "KEE SEPT SALE"

[freddymo]

Those great walks, amazing individuals, sexy eye comments are better suited for carnival workers.

[phystech]

Seems like a resounding endorsement for claiming horses instead of buying yearlings.

Give me a $100k bankroll and, while I won't win a Grade 1 either, I'll put some wins on the board and some cash back in the till......

[Riot]

Numbers 2 and 49 were indeed stunningly attractive horses - 49 is one of the most fluid movers I've ever seen at the walk, simply like flowing silk. My favorite out of Book 1

The sale was packed, I saw a lot of west coast owners/trainers there.

But I agree, Book 1 is no guarantee whatsoever of a big horse. Just a lot of competition on your bidding.

I'll put some money on 10 in a futures pool, a Broken Vow - my second favorite. I think it RNA'd

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Only the biggest players can operate at the top end of that yearling market. There are workable plans no matter where you are on the budget scale. Depends on who you are working with too, don't you think? There are success stories taking any and every approach whether yearling or 2yo-in-training including those that have great track records picking out projectable yearlings at middle of the road prices and those buying nice bargains at a place like the Timonium sale.

KeeSept sale 04
Hip #1830
#2023

KeeSept sale 05
#92
#208
#1898
#880

FToct 04
#139
#815

This was a good plan.

I may have missed a few from 04. I remember a Forest wildcat filly that sucked but I cant find her.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are success stories with some of the people who buy lottery tickets as well.

A lot of people who are given credit as having a shrewd eye for a horse are completely full of crap. Just listen to some of them talk and it's pretty apparent they are basically wanna-be psychics who know almost nothing about horse racing but are skilled enough at fooling the right kind of people.

Walter Vosburgh wrote a funny piece about a guy who was considered one of the most brilliant buyers of his day -- and he was completely ignorant to all the points of a horse and to pedigree.

Its an interesting process watching someone look over a horse and the auction process in general. One particular pinhooker will have all of the horses in the barn quickly paraded in front of him until he sees something that fits the mold he has found success with. The consignors are familiar with the type of horse that a particular buyer typically buys and will seek that person out when they have a horse that fits.

Being in the area where the "hot horse" at the sale is always were the most entertainment comes from though.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Its an interesting process watching someone look over a horse and the auction process in general. One particular pinhooker will have all of the horses in the barn quickly paraded in front of him until he sees something that fits the mold he has found success with. The consignors are familiar with the type of horse that a particular buyer typically buys and will seek that person out when they have a horse that fits.

Being in the area where the "hot horse" at the sale is always were the most entertainment comes from though.

People should hang out at a high minimum dice table.

You will find people there -- some of them successful businessman -- others God only knows how they found their money ... and they will say some of the most irrational stuff.

They think certain shooters can control the dice. They think certain shooters are better than other shooters. They talk about stuff like "hot dice" and "cold dice"

They seem to be oblivious to the randomness of it all.

Obviously there is a little more skill involved when it comes to the selection of yearlings than simply throwing dice ... but not a whole lot more.

Every dice shooter likes to talk about their 'big rolls' when they made 20 straight points, buckshot about half of them, and had floods of people coming to the table just to watch them shoot. They don't like to talk about their lifetime ROI throwing dice or the crippling losing streaks when they couldn't make a single pass 20 times in a row despite having almost a 50/50 chance each time.

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

People should hang out at a high minimum dice table.

You will find people there -- some of them successful businessman -- others God only knows how they found their money ... and they will say some of the most irrational stuff.

They think certain shooters can control the dice. They think certain shooters are better than other shooters. They talk about stuff like "hot dice" and "cold dice"

They seem to be oblivious to the randomness of it all.

Obviously there is a little more skill involved when it comes to the selection of yearlings than simply throwing dice ... but not a whole lot more.

Every dice shooter likes to talk about their 'big rolls' when they made 20 straight points, buckshot about half of them, and had floods of people coming to the table just to watch them shoot. They don't like to talk about their lifetime ROI throwing dice or the crippling losing streaks when they couldn't make a single pass 20 times in a row despite having almost a 50/50 chance each time.

I usually hear some of the most humorous comments at the roulette wheel. After black or red has come up 3-4 times in a row, somebody will declare that the other color is 'due'. I would love to ask them.....why?....... and then hear their explanation. Each spin is a unique event and has nothing to do with the spin prior. How many people have thought they could just double their money by sticking with a color only to have it lose 5-6 (or more) times in a row and then leave muttering about their misfortune. It's always amazing to me how many gamblers don't understand odds and probabilities.