Any Derby Pool 1 thoughts? - Page 2

Downthestretch55 · #21 02-09-2007, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

Totally agree. Injuries, etc... with 26 so horses.

pgardn,
The only one that looks good to me is Exhale...but not at 20-1.
In the Oaks...all others.

ManilaRose · #22 02-09-2007, 02:57 PM

I'm betting Exhale and Ravel. Since I'm not betting a ton of money I'm waiting until the last minute on Sunday to see if I'm getting better odds in the future pool or at bodog.com. Ravel is 22-1 at bodog so I suspect I'll be betting him there. Exhale is 40-1 at bodog. I'm not sure if he'll be that high in the futures pool come Sunday or not. As far as Exhale is concerned I'm basically betting on whether or not he starts in the Derby. If he does(which is a big if) he will be much lower than the 40-1 odds being offered considering the fact that he will have to run VERY well in the Lewis and Santa Anita Derby to have enough earnings to make the starting gate in the KY Derby. I'm thinking I'm going to put $50 on Ravel at 22/1 and $50 on Exhale wherever I can get the best odds.

ceejay · #23 02-09-2007, 06:09 PM

I'll look at the odds on Sunday and maybe play one who didn't start this weekend. Looking @ Belgravia, Great Hunter, Adore the Gold @ > 35-1.

SniperSB23 · #24 02-09-2007, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Its too bad they could not come up with a system where you could buy and sell "shares" in horses at market value. You could buy into a horse at the price quoted and the price rises and falls based upon the shares sold. Would be a much better system and probably attract much more money than this one.

Yeah, I've thought about how cool that could be too. Guess which horse is going to throw up a big win next out and suddenly become the new hot horse so you can unload him for a profit. I think it is a lot easier to do that now than to try and find a Derby winner.

2Hot4TV · #25 02-09-2007, 10:49 PM

Ravel has a nice long stride and looks to have a bright future with added distance. He's my early pick, but I always wait to wager till post parade.

miraja2 · #26 02-09-2007, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceejay

I'll look at the odds on Sunday and maybe play one who didn't start this weekend. Looking @ Belgravia, Great Hunter, Adore the Gold @ > 35-1.

I have never bet these, and I probably won't start this year, but as I type, Adore the Gold is 46-1. That seems like a pretty good value after his race in the Swale.

Dunbar · #27 02-10-2007, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Yeah, I've thought about how cool that could be too. Guess which horse is going to throw up a big win next out and suddenly become the new hot horse so you can unload him for a profit. I think it is a lot easier to do that now than to try and find a Derby winner.

Well, you CAN do that at places like EhorseX and Tradesports. I don't think they have futures for the Derby up yet, but they have put them up pretty early in the past. And I know Tradesports is responsive to email requests, if someone is eager to get going.

Each of those sites functions as a market in which shares in Derby contenders are bought and sold.

Of course, activity and interest are pretty limited until the Derby gets closer. Also, if you want to "buy" a share, it's risky to leave the offer open. If the horse gets injured, someone is going to rush to sell you the share you want.

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #28 02-10-2007, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

In Feb of last year, I got SNS at 100-1, AP Warr at 120-1, and Flashy Bull at 100-1....Obviously I was thrilled to get the post time favorite at 100-1 but it means nothing if they aren't draped in roses after the race.

That's not necessarily true, Randall. If you went into the Derby with those 3 horses at those odds, you would probably have been able to construct a bet on each of the other horses that would have guaranteed you a win no matter which horse won.

That's actually close to my approach to the Derby. I try to pick up futures along the way that will allow me an arbitrage come Derby Day.

Too bad the offshore scene has changed so dramatically from a year ago.

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #29 02-10-2007, 01:33 PM

Someone just popped a huge bet on the "All others". Up to an hour ago, the "All others" had been oscillating between 3-1 and 7-2 since yesterday morning. Now I see it is 2-1. When I last looked there was about $100K in the pool. Now there is 140K. I'm guessing someone made a $20K bet on "All others".

--Dunbar

SCUDSBROTHER · #30 02-10-2007, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Someone just popped a huge bet on the "All others". Up to an hour ago, the "All others" had been oscillating between 3-1 and 7-2 since yesterday morning. Now I see it is 2-1. When I last looked there was about $100K in the pool. Now there is 140K. I'm guessing someone made a $20K bet on "All others".

--Dunbar

Of course,it is all the money for Tiago and Spankey.If Liquidity goes off 50-1, or better,then I will take some of that.Horses that try that hard, can improve (to pss on your party.)

Gander · #31 02-10-2007, 07:03 PM

I just looked and there is $222K bet in the pool.

"All others" is 5/2. I like that bet but thats about as low as it can go to seriously think about dropping a wager on it in my opinion. I suspect it will go off at 2/1.

SniperSB23 · #32 02-10-2007, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

I just looked and there is $222K bet in the pool.

"All others" is 5/2. I like that bet but thats about as low as it can go to seriously think about dropping a wager on it in my opinion. I suspect it will go off at 2/1.

Is everyone with late money waiting until tomorrow? Circular Quay is still 17/1 and Lawrence the Roman 22/1 while Notional is 40/1 and Zanjero 76/1.

randallscott35 · #33 02-10-2007, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Is everyone with late money waiting until tomorrow? Circular Quay is still 17/1 and Lawrence the Roman 22/1 while Notional is 40/1 and Zanjero 76/1.

I don't know, but at 2-1, you can't bet the field anymore.

zippyneedsawin · #34 02-10-2007, 07:25 PM

I hope CQ drifts up a bit after the Risen Star. I'll toss a few $$ on him if he gets up to 25-1.

SniperSB23 · #35 02-10-2007, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I hope CQ drifts up a bit after the Risen Star. I'll toss a few $$ on him if he gets up to 25-1.

I'd need 65-1 to consider it.

zippyneedsawin · #36 02-10-2007, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'd need 65-1 to consider it.

hmmm, ok.. and which horses do you consider a 'good deal' at this point?

SniperSB23 · #37 02-10-2007, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

hmmm, ok.. and which horses do you consider a 'good deal' at this point?

I was hoping for 20-1 on Any Given Saturday but probably won't get it. Was hoping for 30-1 on Great Hunter but probably won't get it. Most likely the only horse that in the end will offer enough value for me to take a stab at will be Liquidity.

SniperSB23 · #38 02-10-2007, 07:51 PM

Actually I just realized Liquidity is another O'Neill that flopped miserably when leaving California. I might be passing on him too.

zippyneedsawin · #39 02-10-2007, 08:26 PM

That's what's cool about the future wager, different people see different value is certain bets.
I've been on CQ's bandwagon since I saw him break his maiden, so I'll be happy to get something in the 25-1 range. It's a crapshoot anyway, so hopefully I'll have something to route for on the first Saturday in May.

#40 02-11-2007, 07:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

That's what's cool about the future wager, different people see different value is certain bets.
I've been on CQ's bandwagon since I saw him break his maiden, so I'll be happy to get something in the 25-1 range. It's a crapshoot anyway, so hopefully I'll have something to route for on the first Saturday in May.

Good for you.

Not exactly a fan of CQ, but if you were liking this horse before the Risen Star, I saw no reason to jump off the bandwagon. I think you'll get something more like 20-1, but that ain't too bad either. CQ didn't need the win to remain on the Derby trail - and even though he is 0-3, I don't doubt he can go two turns.

10 f in the Derby is a tall order for any horse, but with a solid 2YO campaign and some races and training under his belt it's conceivable.

I pretty much would take a shot at anything that's a runner and from the Mr P line. A Derby winning daddy only encourages me more.

I wouldn't play anything less than 15-1 in this pool, and for various reasons I'll be skipping it altogether (I like Ravel, but he's getting backed. I like Street Sense as well, but I'm hoping he comes up a bit short in the Hutcheson and will be better odds in pool 2. I'm also moving half a continent away from where I would have to make a wager -so that seals my sitting out).

At this point though, if you held a gun to my head and forced me to make a wager I think CQ would be one of the horses I'd play.

His supporters should actually be relieved he encountered trouble and finished off the board. If you liked him before the Risen Star, load up on him now.