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#1
02-09-2007, 11:45 AM
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Any Derby Pool 1 thoughts?
Does anyone have any horses they like in pool 1 that might be worth a small wager.
Derby Pool 1 # Name M/L Odds 1 Adore the Gold 20-1 2 Any Given Saturday 20-1 3 Belgravia 20-1 4 Buffalo Man 30-1 5 Circular Quay 15-1 6 Day Pass 15-1 7 Dreaming of Anna (f) 15-1 8 Drums of Thunder 30-1 9 EZ Warrior 15-1 10 Exhale 20-1 11 Forefathers 30-1 12 Great Hunter 30-1 13 Hard Spun 20-1 14 Lawrence the Roman 30-1 15 Liquidity 20-1 16 Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1 17 Notional 15-1 18 Out of Gwedda 30-1 19 Ravel 15-1 20 Scat Daddy 30-1 21 Stormello 20-1 22 Street Sense 12-1 23 Zanjero 30-1 24 All Other 3 YO's 7-2 Oaks Pool 1 # Name M/L Odds 1 Appealing Zophie 30-1 2 Baroness Thatcher 15-1 3 Bel Air Beauty 30-1 4 Boca Grande 12-1 5 Cash Included 20-1 6 Catch The Thrill 50-1 7 Cotton Blossom 20-1 8 Devil House 30-1 9 Dreaming of Anna 4-1 10 Enchanting Star 50-1 11 Five Star Daydream 30-1 12 Get Ready Bertie 20-1 13 Jump On In 12-1 14 Meditations 20-1 15 Mistical Plan 20-1 16 Octave 12-1 17 Quick Little Miss 30-1 18 Rags to Riches 20-1 19 Romance is Diane 20-1 20 Runway Rosie 30-1 21 Successful Outlook 20-1 22 Sutra 50-1 23 Untouched Talent 50-1 24 All Other 3 YO Fillies 3-1 
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#2
02-09-2007, 11:56 AM
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I'm going to play $30 on Any Given Saturday, $10 on Adore the Gold, $5 on Forefathers, and $5 on Drums of Thunder. . .
I was going to play Cotton Blossom but so far she's gotten bet down way too far to bet. . . I wouldn't go too crazy with futures. . . especially with the lower priced horses. . . You can always wrap them up in exotics on Derby Day. . .
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@BDiDonatoTDN
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#3
02-09-2007, 12:18 PM
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#4
02-09-2007, 12:29 PM
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Right now (granted we're super early in the betting), Liquidity looks like an absolute steal. I don't like the horse very much (not in my top 5-10), but with odds vs. talent, his odds are way out of whack...we'll see how the rest of the weekend goes before deciding.
Drums of Thunder is an interesting one in there too at lofty odds. Maybe even Forefathers if he stays near 70-1.
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#5
02-09-2007, 12:34 PM
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At 7/2 or better, you should bet the field...I would if I felt like driving down to place it. I don't.
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#6
02-09-2007, 12:35 PM
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Whatever you do, dont take a horse that you will be able to get the same odds on come the first saturday in may..The only horse that I'll be laying moulah on is Hard Spun..If he gets to the derby, he would have done well in ARK and will be alot of peoples road dog because of the Smarty Jones similarity. If and its a big IF, he makes it to the gate, he will not be 20-1..Just my opinion...Please critique it, I will not leave the board like PGIVN85, although we're close to the same age, i do not run away at the first sign of disagreement..
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#7
02-09-2007, 12:45 PM
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Personally, i think the winner is coming from the horse that has some sort of odds next to their name. I don't think the field is a strong bet, especially at 7-2.
There is basically NO value in ANY of these horse. For this being the first future pool of the year and not 1 horse is listed at over 50-1 is confussing to me. Dreaming of Anna at 15-1.... ugh ok. Who ever made these odds obsiously thinks that all the horses have a real shot of winning the KY Derby, and i think thats far from the case. I also think its funny how 1 horse wins a prep race and their odds are cut in half if not more. I'll wait until derby day if this is the case -bt-
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#8
02-09-2007, 12:49 PM
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Quote:
In Feb of last year, I got SNS at 100-1, AP Warr at 120-1, and Flashy Bull at 100-1....Obviously I was thrilled to get the post time favorite at 100-1 but it means nothing if they aren't draped in roses after the race.
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#9
02-09-2007, 12:54 PM
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I think the worst bet right now is anyone in the Oaks.
Outside of Dreaming of Anna (who may not even go to the Oaks) there doesn't seem to be any standouts at all. The fact that neither Octave or Cotton Blossom are showing up in the Davona Dale may be proof that they are as mediocre as they looked last fall. The fillies out west are all jumbled together, too. It's just a mess trying to figure out this division.
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#10
02-09-2007, 01:05 PM
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Quote:
live odds: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/future-wager/realtime Analysis and "post positions": http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/co...1-horse-horse-
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@BDiDonatoTDN
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#11
02-09-2007, 01:10 PM
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Quote:
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#12
02-09-2007, 01:18 PM
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Quote:
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#13
02-09-2007, 01:20 PM
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if i had to make a bet:
Circular Quay: 20-1, if this horse makes it to the Derby i don't think there is a chance that he will have this high of odds. The public will not let those connections be that high of a price (unless he throws in some clunkers between now and may) Forfathers: 80-1, for sh!ts an giggles -bt-
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#15
02-09-2007, 01:31 PM
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Quote:
__________________
 Seek respect, not attention.
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#16
02-09-2007, 01:38 PM
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Quote:
 can't do it from here.
__________________
Seek respect, not attention.
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#17
02-09-2007, 01:39 PM
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Its too bad they could not come up with a system where you could buy and sell "shares" in horses at market value. You could buy into a horse at the price quoted and the price rises and falls based upon the shares sold. Would be a much better system and probably attract much more money than this one.
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#18
02-09-2007, 01:40 PM
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Some value here, but I wouldn't place a bet on any of the favorites. Odds are you'll see equal to better odds depending on how the Derby preps are run.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#19
02-09-2007, 01:45 PM
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#20
02-09-2007, 02:02 PM
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