5/7 (CD): 148th Kentucky Derby Day

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Not really faulting Irad but I do think he had an option to take the route Rich Strike did. Mo Donegal was ahead of Rich Strike when Rich Strike started moving, passed Mo on the outside then went back inside and started weaving through traffic. Mo made his move after that.

I’m not sure if Mo Donegal would have weaved through traffic or hit those holes the same way…because they opened and closed fairly quickly. It’s hindsight and oddly enough Irad ran into some traffic on the outside, iirc, when White Abarrio moved out. If he tried to go inside and got jammed up, people would probably be slamming him today.

Sonny Leon/Rich Strike had nothing to lose and just ran a great race and got a little luck to help out. I still can’t believe that happened.

If you get a chance check out the overhead. I thought so too until I watched the overhead.

[Dahoss]

https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status...04042427334660


Here's the overhead. Looks like Irad was going to follow Rich Strike and ran into a wall so he moved out and then Barber Road came over on him.

I still don't think it mattered in the outcome. Especially because the poor horse was carrying an extra 350 pounds of Alabama Stakes on his back.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status...04042427334660


Here's the overhead. Looks like Irad was going to follow Rich Strike and ran into a wall so he moved out and then Barber Road came over on him.

I still don't think it mattered in the outcome. Especially because the poor horse was carrying an extra 350 pounds of Alabama Stakes on his back.

You’re still over 4 bills right ? Must have been some party yesterday if they invited you. Best part was probably when you left. Don’t forget to call your mutha today, or at least the director at the orphanage.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

You’re still over 4 bills right ? Must have been some party yesterday if they invited you. Best part was probably when you left. Don’t forget to call your mutha today, or at least the director at the orphanage.

I know having friends is a foreign concept to you. After all…you’re a generational loser. The most unlikable person in the history of horse racing message boards.

I’m sure your mother is real proud of her son Dan. How could she not be proud of a guy who spent his life getting coins thrown at him?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Konk

Uh, ever hear of drones
They have overhead views at Santa Anita, do they use a blimp?
Remarkably innovative of that track......

Some organizations aren't allowed to use drones.

[Konk]

Then my comment wasn't so remarkably clueless.

I guess SA is more innovative and major league than some organizations who are not up to providing the best product possible. What's the downside to providing people who bet lots of money the best available views of the races, as SA does every day?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Konk

Then my comment wasn't so remarkably clueless.

I guess SA is more innovative and major league than some organizations who are not up to providing the best product possible. What's the downside to providing people who bet lots of money the best available views of the races, as SA does every day?

This is even more absurd. Congrats.

Suddenly, a new contender has emerged.

[Konk]

LOL.
YOU called it ridiculous that I suggested something obviously of value to players, but you already knew I wasn't suggesting using the blimp because your track seems to already discussed using drones.

Do you always build strawmen to argue with on the internet?
Troll-like behavior.

Fact remains, it is a good idea and SA does it everyday.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status...04042427334660


Here's the overhead. Looks like Irad was going to follow Rich Strike and ran into a wall so he moved out and then Barber Road came over on him.

I still don't think it mattered in the outcome. Especially because the poor horse was carrying an extra 350 pounds of Alabama Stakes on his back.

My two cents is somewhat between you two...I actually do think if Irad hesitated a couple beats he could've followed the 21...that said I also can't fault what he did at all and think at the end of the day it's probably what you would want your jockey to do. He made a snap decision that he had to find a path to run... At the end of the day I had issues with a lot of Irad's rides over the last few days...while I think he probably "Chose Wrong" in the Derby I can't knock his ride really.... He made the decision that is probably better most days...it just didn't work out here and I'm still not really sure how much closer he would've been anyway...

Again, just my two cents...

[tector]

I bet Zandon. But Epicenter was closer to the pace than him, so I am not sure how Zandon's position cost him vis-a-vis Epicenter. Zandon ran a good race, but Epicenter ran a better one given his early position.

Sonny Leon gave an amazing ride, no question. But the horse was obviously dead fit no matter what--his raw time and BSF fit easily with modern KDs. Beyond that, he was obviously well-trained, with that push-button right turn when needed. So while his win was definitely a product of the insane pace, he was as well-prepared, and well-ridden, as probably any Derby horse could be. All power to him and his connections, no matter what happens next.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

My two cents is somewhat between you two...I actually do think if Irad hesitated a couple beats he could've followed the 21...that said I also can't fault what he did at all and think at the end of the day it's probably what you would want your jockey to do. He made a snap decision that he had to find a path to run... At the end of the day I had issues with a lot of Irad's rides over the last few days...while I think he probably "Chose Wrong" in the Derby I can't knock his ride really.... He made the decision that is probably better most days...it just didn't work out here and I'm still not really sure how much closer he would've been anyway...

Again, just my two cents...

My thought was that Irad could have moved sooner and made the exact same move (given that Mo Donegal was in front of Rich Strike…but Rich Strike moved first and decisively.)

But again, it’s hindsight. It’s not worth much.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status...04042427334660


Here's the overhead. Looks like Irad was going to follow Rich Strike and ran into a wall so he moved out and then Barber Road came over on him.

I still don't think it mattered in the outcome. Especially because the poor horse was carrying an extra 350 pounds of Alabama Stakes on his back.

Yeah he definitely could not have followed Rich Strike.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Of course it was impossible. The horse ran and he was well prepared and got an incredible ride.

But he was impossible. I don't care when he was born, he was completely outclassed going into the race and had been soundly beaten by these same horses before.

Won by 17 lengths over the track and 59.3 final work over the surface, excuses his two other dirt races, 107 BRIS LP last time when galloping out in front, Keen Ice x Smart Strike stretching to 10f, dam a G1 winner at 9f and G1 placed at 10f, etc.

Likely? Of course not. But solely on the synopsis above? I've seen more "impossible" horses win.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Won by 17 lengths over the track and 59.3 final work over the surface, excuses his two other dirt races, 107 BRIS LP last time when galloping out in front, Keen Ice x Smart Strike stretching to 10f, dam a G1 winner at 9f and G1 placed at 10f, etc.

Likely? Of course not. But solely on the synopsis above? I've seen more "impossible" horses win.

My cousin and I have been discussing if we could have included him in our combined Pick 5 bet. We were alive going into the Derby and I had ended up convinced the pace would be hot.

We only used 4 horses in the Derby: Mo Donegal, Zandon, Messier, and White Abarrio. We could have easily scrapped Messier. We both soured on him late.

As one of the few deep closers in the field, could we have used Rich Strike instead? We looked at everything you’re saying and obviously there are things to like. But there are things to like about every horse.

Based on the figures, him only finishing 3rd in the Jeff Ruby, and him only having one win which was a maiden claimer, I don’t see how we could have possibly included him. His figures were improving but he needed to take a massive jump up.

Two people at our party had him though. One person just wanted the longest shot on the board. The other person is 6 years old. I’m going to guess that’s about 90% of people who had him.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

My cousin and I have been discussing if we could have included him in our combined Pick 5 bet. We were alive going into the Derby and I had ended up convinced the pace would be hot.

We only used 4 horses in the Derby: Mo Donegal, Zandon, Messier, and White Abarrio. We could have easily scrapped Messier. We both soured on him late.

As one of the few deep closers in the field, could we have used Rich Strike instead? We looked at everything you’re saying and obviously there are things to like. But there are things to like about every horse.

Based on the figures, him only finishing 3rd in the Jeff Ruby, and him only having one win which was a maiden claimer, I don’t see how we could have possibly included him. His figures were improving but he needed to take a massive jump up.

Two people at our party had him though. One person just wanted the longest shot on the board. The other person is 6 years old. I’m going to guess that’s about 90% of people who had him.

Yeah it’s always easy AFTER an 80-1 wins to show reasons why he could win. Things like a gallop out, workout with no real context, Keen Ice as his sire (not sure that was a good thing but I digress).

The reality was all of the things mentioned could make him an interesting horse to spice up the super…maybe triple. He was 80-1 (and 99-1 earlier in the day) for a reason. It took a perfect storm of events for him to win.

Credit to the horse, the connections and a ride that will go down as one of the best Derby rides in history. Let’s see what happens in Baltimore.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yeah it’s always easy AFTER an 80-1 wins to show reasons why he could win. Things like a gallop out, workout with no real context, Keen Ice as his sire (not sure that was a good thing but I digress).

Sometimes you guys forget that this is supposed to be a forum for open discussion, not just a place to bicker and troll. I gave my opinion on how the horse might have been possible to some, which you may not agree on, but that's the point of a discussion

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by moses

But there are things to like about every horse.

Not always true...I would have a very hard time finding any sort of rhyme or reason if a horse like the 2 had won

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Sometimes you guys forget that this is supposed to be a forum for open discussion, not just a place to bicker and troll. I gave my opinion on how the horse might have been possible to some, which you may not agree on, but that's the point of a discussion

He gave his opinion. I'm confident more people here agree with him than don't,

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Sometimes you guys forget that this is supposed to be a forum for open discussion, not just a place to bicker and troll. I gave my opinion on how the horse might have been possible to some, which you may not agree on, but that's the point of a discussion

Thanks Dad.

I thought I was giving my opinion too. I even said the things you mentioned might make him attractive to complete the tri or super. But certainly not as a win candidate.

We disagree which is fine but my response certainly didn’t discourage discourse.

[jms62]

Problem with finding a reason to have used him in a race like the derby is you are comparing him to 19 others .. And it certainly didn't help that he came in via a scratch after most were done with the race. My friend who plays 4 days a year using my top 4 selections had him with a Secret Oath / All ticket. Good thing he didn't request my opinion before making the bet or use my Derby Top 4. Somewhere someone had a nice Cuban Sandwich All x 2 x 2 x All