Thoro-Graph year-end free data promo & Q/A thread

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by senator L

In step #4, when downloading is there any reason the boxes are different colors?

ALW & STK's are Blue. Turf Green. Mdn's & Clm's White.

[senator L]

It looks like they have numbers from races in Europe .Is this
just a conversion from time form #'s or do they make their own?

[senator L]

THORO-PATTERN Sts Top% Pr% Off% X%
Turf 5 up Oct-Feb: Prev Top 43
, Top-X-Off (32
, 133
, 72
) 41 2 37 37 24
Trainer Profile - Motion, H. Graham
RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED
Starts Win% ITM% ROI Starts Top%Pair% Off% X% Category
6900 18 48 1.67 3762 20 Overall 33 27 20
3361 28 64 1.63 1953 19 36 28 17

Can you explain this part a bit - Top % Pair % Off % X%
thanks for your help!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by senator L

THORO-PATTERN Sts Top% Pr% Off% X%
Turf 5 up Oct-Feb: Prev Top 43
, Top-X-Off (32
, 133
, 72
) 41 2 37 37 24
Trainer Profile - Motion, H. Graham
RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED
Starts Win% ITM% ROI Starts Top%Pair% Off% X% Category
6900 18 48 1.67 3762 20 Overall 33 27 20
3361 28 64 1.63 1953 19 36 28 17

Can you explain this part a bit - Top % Pair % Off % X%
thanks for your help!

It's the percentage of horses with that pattern who ran a new top, paired, ran an off (within two points of top) or an X (more than two points worse than top) race next out.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by senator L

It looks like they have numbers from races in Europe .Is this
just a conversion from time form #'s or do they make their own?

They are making their own.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by senator L

THORO-PATTERN: Can you explain this part a bit - Top % Pair % Off % X%.. thanks for your help!

The Thoro-Pattern is the newest stat Jerry and Co. have crafted and it's based on a very significant number of prior performances. After not paying much attention to it early on, I'm seeing that it appears to be very accurate as an indicator of next-out effort in the scale of TG methodology..

[senator L]

THORO-PATTERN Sts Top% Pr% Off% X%
Turf 5 up Oct-Feb: Prev Top 51, Off-Pr-Off (72, 51, 7) 324 4 33 43 20
Trainer Profile - Clement, Christophe
RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED
StartsWin% ITM% ROI Category Starts Top%Pair% Off% X%
4815 20 53 1.60 Overall 2458 16 40 33 11
2854 28 66 1.58 4-1 or less 1574 15 42 33 10
1422 11 40 1.44 over 4-1 to 10-1 682 15 39 34 12
539 7 24 2.10 over 10-1 202 22 29 33 17
122 16 48 1.09 Last 90 days 79 23 49 20 8
14 29 57 1.57 Last race under 11 days 9 11 56 22 11
1137 23 59 1.67 Last race 11-29 days 788 16 42 32 10
2061 21 55 1.45 Last race 30-89 days 1276 15 41 33 11
883 20 50 1.61 Last race 90+ days 385 16 35 35 14
422 21 52 1.51 2nd race off lay-off 251 19 40 28 12
233 24 58 1.57 3rd race off lay-off 168 16 43 33 8
1194 20 53 1.60 STK 962 11 41 40 9
735 21 56 1.57 5-y-o and up 630 6 41 43 10
5-y-o and up Nov-Jan 89 4 43 42 11
3510 21 53 1.66 Turf 1955 15 42 35 8
267 21 55 1.49 Off tracks (Dirt) 107 21 33 26 20
3517 21 53 1.60 Routes 1891 15 43 34 9
31 19 55 1.55 Adding bandages 22 14 36 32 18
After race 1-4pts off top 107 21 33 26 20
784 19 51 1.68 At GP 319 17 37 36 9
518 24 59 1.73 With Bravo, Joe 268 20 40 32 9

the race I am looking at is R8 Sat gp 1 1/2 La Prevoyante H. Grade III. trf
horse is clearbrook, so those #'s mean, clement is 20% with x % which isn't very good - correct?

[golfer]

Originally Posted by senator L

THORO-PATTERN Sts Top% Pr% Off% X%
Turf 5 up Oct-Feb: Prev Top 51, Off-Pr-Off (72, 51, 7) 324 4 33 43 20
Trainer Profile - Clement, Christophe
RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED
StartsWin% ITM% ROI Category Starts Top%Pair% Off% X%
4815 20 53 1.60 Overall 2458 16 40 33 11
2854 28 66 1.58 4-1 or less 1574 15 42 33 10
1422 11 40 1.44 over 4-1 to 10-1 682 15 39 34 12
539 7 24 2.10 over 10-1 202 22 29 33 17
122 16 48 1.09 Last 90 days 79 23 49 20 8
14 29 57 1.57 Last race under 11 days 9 11 56 22 11
1137 23 59 1.67 Last race 11-29 days 788 16 42 32 10
2061 21 55 1.45 Last race 30-89 days 1276 15 41 33 11
883 20 50 1.61 Last race 90+ days 385 16 35 35 14
422 21 52 1.51 2nd race off lay-off 251 19 40 28 12
233 24 58 1.57 3rd race off lay-off 168 16 43 33 8
1194 20 53 1.60 STK 962 11 41 40 9
735 21 56 1.57 5-y-o and up 630 6 41 43 10
5-y-o and up Nov-Jan 89 4 43 42 11
3510 21 53 1.66 Turf 1955 15 42 35 8
267 21 55 1.49 Off tracks (Dirt) 107 21 33 26 20
3517 21 53 1.60 Routes 1891 15 43 34 9
31 19 55 1.55 Adding bandages 22 14 36 32 18
After race 1-4pts off top 107 21 33 26 20
784 19 51 1.68 At GP 319 17 37 36 9
518 24 59 1.73 With Bravo, Joe 268 20 40 32 9

the race I am looking at is R8 Sat gp 1 1/2 La Prevoyante H. Grade III. trf
horse is clearbrook, so those #'s mean, clement is 20% with x % which isn't very good - correct?

You are correct about the Thor Pattern percentages, but you've got the wrong horse. This is for Tabreed, not Clearbrook. Clearbrook's pattern percentages are even worse.

Basically, Tabreed, based ONLY on the Thoro Pattern percentages, is 37% to run a 5 or better (his top) and 63% to run worse than the 5.

Clearbrook is only 12% to run his top or better (which is a 4), and 88% to run worse than the 4.

I think the Thoro Pattern stats are useful for those new to the product, but hold less value the more versed you are and used to reading the sheets, and seeing patterns for yourself. There are a whole host of variables as to why a horse will run a given number, some of which are foreseeable, and some not.

[senator L]

I'll be betting Clearbrook. Just like the way she runs.
Doesn't seem like it is coming up too tough and the 4 and 12
will be over bet imo though the 12 will be one to beat.
Looks like a who ever can run a "3" should get the job done.
Am I right in reading Clement is only at 4% with 5 years old and up
between nov and jan - that means running a new best

[senator L]

BTW how did you figure out she has an 88% chance of running
worse than a 4.
Thanks for your help

[golfer]

Originally Posted by senator L

I'll be betting Clearbrook. Just like the way she runs.
Doesn't seem like it is coming up too tough and the 4 and 12
will be over bet imo though the 12 will be one to beat.
Looks like a who ever can run a "3" should get the job done.
Am I right in reading Clement is only at 4% with 5 years old and up
between nov and jan - that means running a new best

Correct, but that 4% is only getting them to run new tops. He gets pairs 43%, and wins at a 21% rate. So there is a good chance Tabreed won't run better than a 5, BUT, with a ground saving trip, who's to say a 5 can't win? The key thing to remember is the horse who gets the best figure does NOT always win. Due to ground loss, weight carried, and other assorted issues.
By the way, Clearbrook's top of 4.75 is basically the same. Even TG doesn't guarantee their figures to a .25 point accuracy. Which is not to say I don't think Clearbrook will win, I actually haven't handicapped the race yet.

In fact, I'd love for Thorograph to do a study on how often the horse that gets the best fig in a race actually wins?

[golfer]

Originally Posted by senator L

BTW how did you figure out she has an 88% chance of running
worse than a 4.
Thanks for your help

Clearbrook's pattern percentages indicate 46% chance of OFF, which is somewhat worse than the top, and 42% chance of X, which is much worse than the top. So adding the 2 gives us 88%. Again, this is pattern only, it does not take anything else into consideration.

[senator L]

so the #3 beside the 4 at Bel when she was 4yrs old means
4.75? If one runs a 5 and the other a 4 how many lengths does
that usually mean? Do lengths increase as the numbers?

[golfer]

Originally Posted by senator L

so the #3 beside the 4 at Bel when she was 4yrs old means
4.75? If one runs a 5 and the other a 4 how many lengths does
that usually mean? Do lengths increase as the numbers?

Yes, they do the figures to the 1/4 point. 1, 2 and 3 indicate .25, .50, and .75 when they appear next to and above the main figure.

The Introduction page at the website gives you a glossary and explains how many lengths each point is worth, at different distances. 1 point = 1 length at 5 furlongs, and 2 lengths at a mile and a quarter. You can extrapolate in between.

But the difference between a 5 and a 4.75 is negligible, in my opinion, anyway.

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by senator L

BTW how did you figure out she has an 88% chance of running
worse than a 4.
Thanks for your help

One of the best ways to understand the whole methodology is to use the free "Race of the Week" that is available most weeks of the year. Gives a good insight as to how the figures are applied. Sometimes the patterns and cycles they come up with are very insightful.............it's a great product. A lot of their past Breeders Cup and Triple Crown races analysis are available on Youtube also.

[dellinger63]

I suggest anyone wanting to learn TG's apply them to the 12/26, 3rd Race at Gulfstream.

[senator L]

Using these I came up with #2

I've gone through the "how to read" and still can't find section
explaining symbols - triangle, square, bullet, all solid.
Watched the tutorial (video) and it never explains anything about the
section of numbers on the left. I tried to listen to the audio component
but it was so bad I couldn't listen any longer. It sounded like it was taped
through a couple beer cans. I wonder why they would have that
on their website?

Any reason why they don't include m/l #'s

[senator L]

oops, have to re-visit I download and studied 27th

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by senator L

Using these I came up with #2

I've gone through the "how to read" and still can't find section
explaining symbols - triangle, square, bullet, all solid.
Watched the tutorial (video) and it never explains anything about the
section of numbers on the left. I tried to listen to the audio component
but it was so bad I couldn't listen any longer. It sounded like it was taped
through a couple beer cans. I wonder why they would have that
on their website?

Any reason why they don't include m/l #'s

Page 4 of every Race of the Week has the symbol glossary.

[senator L]

Well the #5 has a 46% chance of running a 10 or better
which should win this race
If he was the right price I'd bet him
#2 2nd out mdn over 10-1 has 2.65 roi
#7 1st turf B Tagg roi 2.95

What do the -- and - before the number mean?
thank you !