Liam's Map=Cross Traffic part 2?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

They are hardly going for broke by running Honor Code in the Classic. This horse, unbeaten at 9f, was earmarked as the winter book favorite for the Kentucky Derby last year and has been targeting the Classic throughout the year. If he has not started at 10f yet its because outside the Big Cap, Gold Cup, and Pacific Classic in California, there are no Grade 1 10f in NA for older horses other than the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I suppose he could have run in the Grade 2 Suburban (which oscillates b/w 9 and 10f), but clearly Shug McGaughey has been spacing out his races.

Again, the simple fact that Liam's Map (who was generating enthusiastic remarks for the Classic since his Whitney effort) has defected proves that the Mile waters down the Classic. Are we to believe that Liam's Map was never targeting the Classic? Are we to believe that if there were no BC Dirt Mile, Liam's Map would stay in the barn on BC Day?

Why does every horse capable at a mile have to defect to the Dirt Mile to prove the point? Isn't Beholder and Smooth Roller arguably "milers"?


So suddenly Liam's Map, who was mentioned for the Classic since August, was never a Classic contender?

you'd have to find out from LM's connections why they are going in the 'mile' instead.
and i don't know if he would stay in the barn or not. i do know only 14 can enter.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Uncle Daddy

Your assumption is original owners don't call the shots and because WPT took a stake they make the decisions? Not possible the original owners think he fits in a G1 mile for $600K and that he might not have the stuff to defeat the big 3 in the Classic?

Whoever is responsible for this decision made a bad one. Period. It really isn't even debatable.

The decisions cannot be result oriented in ANY way. From an expected value perspective his purse earning figure to be similar for both races ( 50% in a $1 million race giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will be even money equal $500K in expected earnings while roughly 10:1, maybe too high but close, in a $5 million race gives him the same $500K in expected earnings ). However, the potential intrinsic gains by running in the Classic FAR outweigh those of the Dirt Mile. In the Dirt Mile, he rates to gain NOTHING from a breeding perspective with a win, and could in fact hurt himself ( probably slightly ) with a loss. However, a win, or even a good second, has real intrinsic value for him as a stallion, and a loss would do next to nothing to tarnish his value.

This is what matters...not whether you or I, or anybody, think he can win either race, or where he has a better chance. That nonsense is irrelevant and, frankly, just gets in the way of making the clear correct decision. To me, it is inarguable.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Whoever is responsible for this decision made a bad one. Period. It really isn't even debatable.

The decisions cannot be result oriented in ANY way. From an expected value perspective his purse earning figure to be similar for both races ( 50% in a $1 million race giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will be even money equal $500K in expected earnings while roughly 10:1, maybe too high but close, in a $5 million race gives him the same $500K in expected earnings ). However, the potential intrinsic gains by running in the Classic FAR outweigh those of the Dirt Mile. In the Dirt Mile, he rates to gain NOTHING from a breeding perspective with a win, and could in fact hurt himself ( probably slightly ) with a loss. However, a win, or even a good second, has real intrinsic value for him as a stallion, and a loss would do next to nothing to tarnish his value.

This is what matters...not whether you or I, or anybody, think he can win either race, or where he has a better chance. That nonsense is irrelevant and, frankly, just gets in the way of making the clear correct decision. To me, it is inarguable.

this is why i really don't think anyone who thinks they have a good chance in the bcc will skip to try to get the 'easy money' in the mile. everyone knows it's the big race of the year for older horses.
and when you have true milers, entering there when you have a 9-10f horse isn't exactly 'easy money' or a guarantee of a win, or a board finish for that matter.
we have a turf sprint, mile, and then the the turf classic-with none of the pearl clutching. i don't get it.