Two at Toga

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Wagered $48.00
Returned $41.70

Tough card today...

Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Mean Mary - I was admittedly slow to coming around to thinking she could be this type going all the way back to the promising maiden win...while she completely controlled the pace in the NY however she really won me over watching her power home in the stretch. Definitely an acid test but I think she will be tough to beat in here unless Sistercharlie re-finds her best form.

Best Value: Race 7 #6 Pete's Play Call - loved the last effort, has to hold form off the trainer change but cutting back to 6 should help and Luis should be able to map out a nice trip.

GL.

Love the 6 in the 7th... good luck

[moses]

Wednesday, August 26.


Best bet: Race 5 - #3 Checksandbalances (8/5 ML). A stumble at the start proved to be too difficult for Checksandbalances to overcome last time out, though she finished a gamely 3rd by only a neck. Without the stumble, I think she wins easily.

Longshot: Race 7 - #1 Buy Land and See (8/1 ML). I'm not totally convinced that Buy Land and See will like a 5.5 furlong sprint but with all the speed signed on for this race, my guess is he can sit off the pace a bit. I'm going to trust Jose Ortiz to work out a perfect trip for this one and hope that he'll be flying late.

Best bets: $40.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $40.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $80.00 wagered. $37.00 returned.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Wednesday, August 26.


Best bet: Race 5 - #3 Checksandbalances (8/5 ML). A stumble at the start proved to be too difficult for Checksandbalances to overcome last time out, though she finished a gamely 3rd by only a neck. Without the stumble, I think she wins easily.

Longshot: Race 7 - #1 Buy Land and See (8/1 ML). I'm not totally convinced that Buy Land and See will like a 5.5 furlong sprint but with all the speed signed on for this race, my guess is he can sit off the pace a bit. I'm going to trust Jose Ortiz to work out a perfect trip for this one and hope that he'll be flying late.

Best bets: $40.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $40.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $80.00 wagered. $37.00 returned.

Well, I ended up with two 3rd place finishers. I guess that's better than what I've been doing but still pretty pathetic. Checksandbalances ended up being the horse you wanted out of her most recent race...but the two that beat her were much, much better. I'm not sure I could have ended up on the longshot that finished 2nd but Rosario's horse had some appeal but I discounted her. As far as Race 7, there is no freaking way I would have made my pick if I knew he’d go off at 3/1. Ah well. I actually ended up putting a few bucks on Jack and Noah in that race. It made zero sense that he was 5/1, though didn’t think he’d win as easily as he did.

Moving on to today. Thursday, August 27.

Best bet: Race 1 - #2 Posse Can Disco (5/1 ML). None of these horses look very inspiring, particularly the ones who have already raced. The #2 Posse Can Disco is a first time starter but comes into this one with two very good workouts and draws Ricardo Santana who I have no problem leaning on in a dirt sprint.

Longshot: Race 6 - #6 Flashing Red (10/1 ML). I'm not fully understanding the 1/1A as a 6/5 morning line favorite so I think this is a race where we might see a price. I'm not crazy about the horses that have raced on turf so I'm looking for a horse that might like the surface switch. This one has never raced on turf but her dirt figures could put her in the mix if she takes a liking to the grass. I'm a little bit intrigued with her being claimed and switched immediately to the turf, which she may like based on pedigree. The other first time turf starter that I like in here is the #3 Glass Ceiling but she's listed at 7/2 on the morning line and I wouldn't be shocked to see her lower than that based on the drop in class.

Note: Race 6 may come off the turf. NYRA reported about a half hour ago that the turf races are ON...for now. If that changes, I'll have to switch it up.

Best bets: $44.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $44.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $88.00 wagered. $37.00 returned.

[theguarantee]

I’ll update tomorrow when I have more time.

Best Bet: Race 3 #4 Value Proposition
Best Value: Race 7 #3 Getmotherarose

GL.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I ended up with two 3rd place finishers. I guess that's better than what I've been doing but still pretty pathetic. Checksandbalances ended up being the horse you wanted out of her most recent race...but the two that beat her were much, much better. I'm not sure I could have ended up on the longshot that finished 2nd but Rosario's horse had some appeal but I discounted her. As far as Race 7, there is no freaking way I would have made my pick if I knew he’d go off at 3/1. Ah well. I actually ended up putting a few bucks on Jack and Noah in that race. It made zero sense that he was 5/1, though didn’t think he’d win as easily as he did.

Moving on to today. Thursday, August 27.

Best bet: Race 1 - #2 Posse Can Disco (5/1 ML). None of these horses look very inspiring, particularly the ones who have already raced. The #2 Posse Can Disco is a first time starter but comes into this one with two very good workouts and draws Ricardo Santana who I have no problem leaning on in a dirt sprint.

Longshot: Race 6 - #6 Flashing Red (10/1 ML). I'm not fully understanding the 1/1A as a 6/5 morning line favorite so I think this is a race where we might see a price. I'm not crazy about the horses that have raced on turf so I'm looking for a horse that might like the surface switch. This one has never raced on turf but her dirt figures could put her in the mix if she takes a liking to the grass. I'm a little bit intrigued with her being claimed and switched immediately to the turf, which she may like based on pedigree. The other first time turf starter that I like in here is the #3 Glass Ceiling but she's listed at 7/2 on the morning line and I wouldn't be shocked to see her lower than that based on the drop in class.

Note: Race 6 may come off the turf. NYRA reported about a half hour ago that the turf races are ON...for now. If that changes, I'll have to switch it up.

Best bets: $44.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $44.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $88.00 wagered. $37.00 returned.

Race 6 is OFF the turf. I’ll switch my longshot pick to:

Race 8 - #1 Mischief Afoot (6/1 ML). I don’t have anything majorly bad to say about Texas Swing other than he’s coming off a long layoff and his works don’t pop out to me. Mischief Afoot on the other hand has some pretty nice recent works and looked pretty strong breaking his maiden. Perhaps this one is just in better form right now so I’ll take a shot.

[theguarantee]

With both of my picks scratched I’ll update:

Best Bet: Race 6 #1A Little Red Frog
Best Value: Race 8: #6 Danny California

[moses]

Updated the returns as Mischief Afoot finished 2nd and returned $4.80 to place.

Friday, August 28.

Best bet: Race 3 - #6 Principal Dancer (7/2 ML). Principal Dancer ran well at this level last time out and now gets a jockey upgrade with Luis Saez taking over for a barn that has been pretty hot recently. The very minor cutback from 6.5 furlongs to 6 shouldn't make a huge difference but I think he'll like the slightly shorter distance.

Longshot: Race 8 - #5 Night Time (15/1 ML). Based on the workouts, Dale Romans seems to have this one cranked up. Last race, Night Time got bumped a few times at the start and then would not settle. That race was also off a long layoff, so I'll forgive him for that. If we look back to his 2YO dirt races, he should be able to win against this bunch with a little bit of improvement. This will be his first race against older horses, so there's obviously a little concern there but it's also nearly September and these 4YOs are beatable.


Best bets: $48.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $48.00 wagered. $23.60 returned.
Total: $96.00 wagered. $41.80 returned.

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $64.00
Returned: $79.20

Best Bet: Race 9 #2 Micheline
Best Value: Race 7 #3 Matta

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Updated the returns as Mischief Afoot finished 2nd and returned $4.80 to place.

Friday, August 28.

Best bet: Race 3 - #6 Principal Dancer (7/2 ML). Principal Dancer ran well at this level last time out and now gets a jockey upgrade with Luis Saez taking over for a barn that has been pretty hot recently. The very minor cutback from 6.5 furlongs to 6 shouldn't make a huge difference but I think he'll like the slightly shorter distance.

Longshot: Race 8 - #5 Night Time (15/1 ML). Based on the workouts, Dale Romans seems to have this one cranked up. Last race, Night Time got bumped a few times at the start and then would not settle. That race was also off a long layoff, so I'll forgive him for that. If we look back to his 2YO dirt races, he should be able to win against this bunch with a little bit of improvement. This will be his first race against older horses, so there's obviously a little concern there but it's also nearly September and these 4YOs are beatable.


Best bets: $48.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $48.00 wagered. $23.60 returned.
Total: $96.00 wagered. $41.80 returned.

Another runner I would have never picked if I knew the post time odds. But that’s part of the challenge, I guess. Getting back $2.50 for Principal Dancer’s 2nd place finish. Maybe Night Time can make it up for me.

[Alabama Stakes]

Maybe he can...... good job Mo

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Maybe he can...... good job Mo

Thanks. Had a crappy day as my car overheated with my two little ones in it with me. All good now. But it was nice to be able to hit this one. Haven't been able to look at tomorrow's races but hopefully I can build off of this.

Best bets: $52.00 wagered. $20.70 returned.
Longshots: $52.00 wagered. $54.60 returned.
Total: $104.00 wagered. $75.30 returned.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks. Had a crappy day as my car overheated with my two little ones in it with me. All good now. But it was nice to be able to hit this one. Haven't been able to look at tomorrow's races but hopefully I can build off of this.

Best bets: $52.00 wagered. $20.70 returned.
Longshots: $52.00 wagered. $54.60 returned.
Total: $104.00 wagered. $75.30 returned.

Nice job today! Like I said...it just takes one to get you going

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Nice job today! Like I said...it just takes one to get you going

Yup! Gotta keep it rolling now.

[moses]

Saturday, August 29.

Best Bet: Race 8 - #6 Complexity (4/1 ML). Last November, Complexity had an eye-opening win in an optional claiming race at Aqueduct. He shipped to Santa Anita after that and was then thoroughly beaten in the Malibu. In his last three Grade 1 races, he has lost by a combined 49 3/4 lengths. So what the heck is so appealing about him in this one? Last month he returned off a long layoff to race 4-wide, close to a respectable pace, and just kept going as he entered the stretch while others close to the pace faded. That signals to me that he's ready to take on graded stakes company once more. With many of the typical dirt sprinters in here like Whitmore, Firenze Fire, and Mind Control, combined with some fresh faces like Fortin Hill and Funny Guy, Complexity should still be a nice price.

Longshot: Race 11 - #8 Miss Jimmy (15/1 ML). Miss Jimmy comes to Saratoga from the Finger Lakes where she has finished in the top 2 in her last 10 races. She's 11-6-4-0 lifetime. This is obviously a step up in class for her but I don't think she's far off from this group. Flashpackinbarbie looks like the early pacesetter here but I'd be surprised if she gets an easy lead, which should allow Miss Jimmy to sit off the pace and make a late run. She seems to be begging for more distance than the 5 and 5.5 furlong races that she's run recently. She'll get her chance here. The question is whether she's good enough.

[theguarantee]

Great pick on Night Time Moses...classic Dale Romans winner there, I totally missed.

Wagered: $72.00
Returned: $79.20

Best Bet: Race 10 #5 Zainalarab - I'm guessing the 7/2 ML won't hold up but I tend to trust DA over my own instincts. Love the way this horse is working and while it may appear Always Carina is outworking her, I think if you look closely this horse is actually the one ready for the 6f dirt sprint. I think both will end up being really good, but think AC will show that next out with some added ground, most likely on the turf. Jouster is a bit scary but I think is going to need one and probably some added ground. None of the horses with a start look scary in here.

Best Value: Race 8 #7 Win Win Win - I have always loved this horse particularly looking for a cutback on the dirt. I can't knock the turf experiment but this feels like about as dirtied up (although the last trip is beyond obvious) as you can get at this point. His effort in Tampa at this distance as a 3 year old competes with any of these besides the juiced up monster runs from FF, and I think the slight cutback off a trip and natural development...any improvement off that effort arguably makes WWW the horse to beat at a 12/1 ML. Couple notes on some others in here for better or worse: While Whitmore's style makes him seem like the perfect 7f horse I actually think he's better shorter plus of those exiting the Vanderbilt I prefer Firenze Fire. Mind Control to me sat the softest trip in racing and I don't like at all today. Lexitonian seems to be in fine form and is dangerous for Sisterson but I'm siding against...True Timber is another live longshot for Sisterson who probably can't win but could spice up exotics. I don't like Complexity at all in here. While I'm probably going to make the Complexity-Whitmore exacta box a stone cold lock...Complexity is coming off a soft trip huge effort and has failed to consolidate those efforts everytime prior. I suppose it's a little nuts to like WWW so much and hate Complexity so much but I think there are enough factors...Majestic Dunhill is always a threat underneath if they get leg weary late and Fortin' Hill can beat me as I think that last field/fig is suspect.

So I'll try to get through this leg with WWW and Funny Guy - who I think has more to offer. I love the way he scooted home late when finally challenged last out. I realize that was also a soft trip and the waters are much deeper today but I think the last two are essentially paired up and could see something special today...a new beyer top as I suspect we may see makes him very tough today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Great pick on Night Time Moses...classic Dale Romans winner there, I totally missed.

Wagered: $72.00
Returned: $79.20

Best Bet: Race 10 #5 Zainalarab - I'm guessing the 7/2 ML won't hold up but I tend to trust DA over my own instincts. Love the way this horse is working and while it may appear Always Carina is outworking her, I think if you look closely this horse is actually the one ready for the 6f dirt sprint. I think both will end up being really good, but think AC will show that next out with some added ground, most likely on the turf. Jouster is a bit scary but I think is going to need one and probably some added ground. None of the horses with a start look scary in here.

Best Value: Race 8 #7 Win Win Win - I have always loved this horse particularly looking for a cutback on the dirt. I can't knock the turf experiment but this feels like about as dirtied up (although the last trip is beyond obvious) as you can get at this point. His effort in Tampa at this distance as a 3 year old competes with any of these besides the juiced up monster runs from FF, and I think the slight cutback off a trip and natural development...any improvement off that effort arguably makes WWW the horse to beat at a 12/1 ML. Couple notes on some others in here for better or worse: While Whitmore's style makes him seem like the perfect 7f horse I actually think he's better shorter plus of those exiting the Vanderbilt I prefer Firenze Fire. Mind Control to me sat the softest trip in racing and I don't like at all today. Lexitonian seems to be in fine form and is dangerous for Sisterson but I'm siding against...True Timber is another live longshot for Sisterson who probably can't win but could spice up exotics. I don't like Complexity at all in here. While I'm probably going to make the Complexity-Whitmore exacta box a stone cold lock...Complexity is coming off a soft trip huge effort and has failed to consolidate those efforts everytime prior. I suppose it's a little nuts to like WWW so much and hate Complexity so much but I think there are enough factors...Majestic Dunhill is always a threat underneath if they get leg weary late and Fortin' Hill can beat me as I think that last field/fig is suspect.

So I'll try to get through this leg with WWW and Funny Guy - who I think has more to offer. I love the way he scooted home late when finally challenged last out. I realize that was also a soft trip and the waters are much deeper today but I think the last two are essentially paired up and could see something special today...a new beyer top as I suspect we may see makes him very tough today.

WWW had something up at the start last time out as he gave the field a large headstart and was able to finish strong for 2nd. I definitely like him and will use him underneath. We disagree on Complexity but I may be the fool buying into him again. We shall see. Good luck!

[moses]

Great call on WWW. I’m kicking myself for not having that exacta.

[theguarantee]

^Thanks man, I caught the exacta and win money and live in the pick-5 but really kicking myself for not listening to you more as I used True Timber in 2nd/3rd but only snuck Complexity into the 3rd slot on tris...that's trifectas not tries...wild race I don't know what to make of but I certainly won't apologize for winners in this game.

Good luck the rest of the card. I just noticed Zainalarab scratched, not sure when that happened so not even sure where I'm at in this pick 5.

[Alabama Stakes]

After Fox screwed everyone over, I watched the replay trying to figure out how the 7 won that race. Wow what a run.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Great pick on Night Time Moses...classic Dale Romans winner there, I totally missed.

Wagered: $72.00
Returned: $79.20

Best Bet: Race 10 #5 Zainalarab - I'm guessing the 7/2 ML won't hold up but I tend to trust DA over my own instincts. Love the way this horse is working and while it may appear Always Carina is outworking her, I think if you look closely this horse is actually the one ready for the 6f dirt sprint. I think both will end up being really good, but think AC will show that next out with some added ground, most likely on the turf. Jouster is a bit scary but I think is going to need one and probably some added ground. None of the horses with a start look scary in here.

Best Value: Race 8 #7 Win Win Win - I have always loved this horse particularly looking for a cutback on the dirt. I can't knock the turf experiment but this feels like about as dirtied up (although the last trip is beyond obvious) as you can get at this point. His effort in Tampa at this distance as a 3 year old competes with any of these besides the juiced up monster runs from FF, and I think the slight cutback off a trip and natural development...any improvement off that effort arguably makes WWW the horse to beat at a 12/1 ML. Couple notes on some others in here for better or worse: While Whitmore's style makes him seem like the perfect 7f horse I actually think he's better shorter plus of those exiting the Vanderbilt I prefer Firenze Fire. Mind Control to me sat the softest trip in racing and I don't like at all today. Lexitonian seems to be in fine form and is dangerous for Sisterson but I'm siding against...True Timber is another live longshot for Sisterson who probably can't win but could spice up exotics. I don't like Complexity at all in here. While I'm probably going to make the Complexity-Whitmore exacta box a stone cold lock...Complexity is coming off a soft trip huge effort and has failed to consolidate those efforts everytime prior. I suppose it's a little nuts to like WWW so much and hate Complexity so much but I think there are enough factors...Majestic Dunhill is always a threat underneath if they get leg weary late and Fortin' Hill can beat me as I think that last field/fig is suspect.

So I'll try to get through this leg with WWW and Funny Guy - who I think has more to offer. I love the way he scooted home late when finally challenged last out. I realize that was also a soft trip and the waters are much deeper today but I think the last two are essentially paired up and could see something special today...a new beyer top as I suspect we may see makes him very tough today.

Great call on Win Win Win!