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#83
08-15-2021, 11:09 AM
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Last edited by moses : 08-15-2021 at 11:20 AM. 
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#84
08-15-2021, 01:17 PM
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#85
08-17-2021, 02:25 PM
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Things have been pretty ugly for me lately. I'm now at:
Wagered: $160.00 Returned: $74.10 Wednesday August 18th Best bet: Race 6 - #6 Gailhorsewind, 3/1 ML (Rice/J.Ortiz). I still think that this is a very talented turf horse and I'm going to buy-in with the rider switch and the addition of blinkers. I also wouldn't be shocked to see that 3/1 ML price drift up a bit and if that happens, I'm all over this one. Alternate: Race 4 - #3 Blewitt, 2/1 ML (Pletcher/Saez). There is some rain in the forecast so it's possible that the turf races end up off. If so, I like Blewitt as the lone speed in this one and expect him to run much better in his 2nd start off the layoff. Best value: Race 10 - #9 A Colt Named Susie, 30/1 ML (Noda/Samuel). This horse drops from MSW to MCL, a move that Noda isn't particularly successful with...but the one thing Samuel probably does well is sprint and I really don't like any of the likely favorites in this one...so why not take a big swing? Alternate: Race 8 - #3 Derrynane, 5/1 ML (Clement/Rosario). I have my doubts that we're getting 5/1 on this horse...but a solid bet at that price.
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#86
08-19-2021, 12:46 AM
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Wagered: $168.00 Returned: $82.50 Best bet: Race 4 - #1 Misty Veil, 4/1 ML (Amoss/I.Ortiz). The favorite #5 More Moonshine could be a very good horse but she benefited from a pace that fell apart in her impressive maiden debut and I can't justify betting her at even money odds. She also now will go around two turns for the first time, which distance may not be an issue for her, but I'm not sure I see much pace signed on in here and I expect the #1 Misty Veil to find herself alone on the lead. I believe Misty Veil is an improving 3 year old and should be able to repeat her last performance, especially if we get a wet track given the weather forecast. Best value: Race 2 - #4 Osbourne, 8/1 ML (Moquett/Saez). I could be wrong but I'm not sold at all on the ML favorite in this race, the #7 Big Scully and actually slightly prefer the other horse coming out of that race - the #2 Sailor Speed. But I actually don't really like either of the horses with experience and prefer to go with a first time starter here. All of them provide a little bit of intrigue but the horse that really catches my eye is the #4 Osbourne who draws Saez aboard and was shipped to Saratoga from Ellis Park where he put in a bullet workout on July 22. Moquett has yet to win a race this meet but I think he's got a good chance to win this one.
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#87
08-19-2021, 11:07 AM
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#88
08-20-2021, 09:35 AM
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Wagered: $176.00 Returned: $85.90 Best bet: Race 4 - #5 Hoopla, 9/2 ML (Mott/Velazquez) Best value: Race 6 - #6 Sister Otoole, ML 10/1 (Motion/Saez)
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#89
08-20-2021, 04:00 PM
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Returned: $99.40 Saturday Best bet: Race 10 - #4 Maracuja, 7/2 ML (Atras/Santana) Best value: Race 3 - #5 Pacific Gale, 6/1 ML (Kimmel/Velazquez)
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#93
08-25-2021, 11:42 AM
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$200.00 wagered $109.20 returned Wednesday August 25 Best bet: Race 5 - #8 Cool Quest, 9/2 ML (Lynch/Velazquez). I really don't like too many horses on this card but I think the 6/5 ML favorite is vulnerable and there could be some nice value in this race. I like #8 Cool Quest to win as Lynch switches him to turf and adds blinkers. Best value: Race 7 - #4 Power Up Paynter, 5/1 ML (Rice/Lezcano). We'll see how the track plays but a decent amount of speed signed on here and I think he will put in a strong, late effort.
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#94
08-25-2021, 03:24 PM
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I didn't realize that Power Up Paynter was scratched. I'll pick #6 Wicked Amber in the 10th race instead. She is 15/1 ML and with Persaud/Hernandez, I could see her going off even higher than that...but that race looks pretty wide open to me.
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