Belmont Stakes Field

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Not saying I don't buy this but I'm too lazy to watch the replay of the AD. Maybe you can help me out by explaining how FP's trip was "much worse' than SB's.

Unfortunately the head on isn't very good so it doesn't capture the 2nd trouble point, but on Race Replays video at the 1:15 mark is the first point where Ocampo runs up on the heels almost of a tiring horse who's under pressure mid track. While that happens Rosier and Summer Bird get going on the outside getting the run on Flying Private when comparing trips. The 2nd point is at around 1:30 but since the Oaklawn head on video is horrendous, you can't see much.

Basically, the Pan Shot gives you a better view of how Ocampo runs up on Ziegfield who is stopping badly, forcing him to almost take up while Summer Bird commences his rally on the outside at the same time. Then, while Summer Bird has clear running on the outside, Ocampo has to wait and hold up Flying Private until he can get some running room. It's much better on the Pan Shot in terms of seeing the traffic issues that Flying Private had compared to Summer Bird. I realize Flying Private didn't kick a whole heck of a lot when he did get clear, but Lukas said in the article by Grening today that Flying Private is a long striding horse so that might explain why the trouble really hurt the colt. Just my opinion based on what I saw.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

That's true, I was only thinking of Unbridled's Song I guess.

and of course most look to the dams side for stamina, the sire for speed-probably explains why sprinter/milers are generally more sought after in the breeding shed.

[Bobby Fischer]

you will also want to compare the run Summer Bird made in the Derby from the blimp view and compare that to the run Flying Private made in the Preakness.
May as well figure it on paper as well.

It's a mistake to assume Flying Private's run was better because of the 102 Beyer. It's a judgement call you have to decide personally. Contrary to some, many?, I happen to think Summer Bird's run in the Derby was more impressive.

However, I really don't view either horse as a threat to run in the Belmont exacta.

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

you will also want to compare the run Summer Bird made in the Derby from the blimp view and compare that to the run Flying Private made in the Preakness.
May as well figure it on paper as well.

It's a mistake to assume Flying Private's run was better because of the 102 Beyer. It's a judgement call you have to decide personally. Contrary to some, many?, I happen to think Summer Bird's run in the Derby was more impressive.

However, I really don't view either horse as a threat to run in the Belmont exacta.

You can't compare the two because the races unfolded on different tracks with different scenarios and so on. It's comparing apples to oranges. I am using the one race where the two of them ran against each other.

I am using the three fastest figure horses in the Belmont as those are the three who I think are the win contenders. Mine That Bird, Dunkirk, and Flying Private have run the fastest races and are the three that I think are win contenders.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

You can't compare the two because the races unfolded on different tracks with different scenarios and so on. It's comparing apples to oranges. I am using the one race where the two of them ran against each other.

I am using the three fastest figure horses in the Belmont as those are the three who I think are the win contenders. Mine That Bird, Dunkirk, and Flying Private have run the fastest races and are the three that I think are win contenders.

Do you agree that the form of the Gulfstream Horses doesnt seem to be holding up?

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Will Dunkirk be able to get 1.5 miles??

Not even 1.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown

Not even 1.

Something's wrong with this.

[chucklestheclown]

What? I don't like Dunkirk to win this race. I have not seen a horse win yet that ran at Gulfstream the weekend of the Florida Derby. I am anxiously awaiting the outcome of Nicanor's next race to base my final bet on.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown

What? I don't like Dunkirk to win this race. I have not seen a horse win yet that ran at Gulfstream the weekend of the Florida Derby. I am anxiously awaiting the outcome of Nicanor's next race to base my final bet on.

Didn't Nicanor just break his maiden on grass at Delaware by 15 lengths.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown

What? I don't like Dunkirk to win this race. I have not seen a horse win yet that ran at Gulfstream the weekend of the Florida Derby. I am anxiously awaiting the outcome of Nicanor's next race to base my final bet on.

-Big Drama ran in the Preakness. That was a pretty tall order (even though I loved him that day).

-This Ones for Phil ran only once since and he got a pretty bad trip and ran well to be 2nd behind a very impressive Mr Fantasy.

-Quality Road got injured and hasnt run once since.

-Nicanor broke his maiden winning by a pole.

I wouldnt rush to judgement on this group just yet.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown

What? I don't like Dunkirk to win this race. I have not seen a horse win yet that ran at Gulfstream the weekend of the Florida Derby. I am anxiously awaiting the outcome of Nicanor's next race to base my final bet on.

Dunkirk beat Warriors Reward at GP, who came back to win an impressive Allowance race on Oaks day at Churchill.

Dunkirk beat Santana Six at GP, who finished a good second in a Stakes race at Monmouth last Saturday.

It's perfectly fine to not like Dunkirk. But to use "everyone at GP sucks" angle isn't going to get you very far.

[Sightseek]

Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Stakes


1
Chocolate Candy
J. Hollendorfer
G. Gomez
10-1

2
Dunkirk
T. Pletcher
J. Velazquez
4-1


3
Mr. Hot Stuff
E. Harty
E. Prado
15-1

4
Summer Bird
T. Ice
K. Desormeaux
12-1

5
Luv Gov
D.W. Lukas
M. Mena
20-1


6
Charitable Man
K. McLaughlin
A. Garcia
3-1

7
Mine That Bird
B. Woolley Jr.
C. Borel
2-1

8
Flying Private
D.W. Lukas
J. Leparoux
12-1


9
Miner's Escape
N. Zito
J. Lezcano
15-1


10
Brave Victory
N. Zito
R. Maragh
15-1

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Stakes


1
Chocolate Candy
J. Hollendorfer
G. Gomez
10-1

2
Dunkirk
T. Pletcher
J. Velazquez
4-1


3
Mr. Hot Stuff
E. Harty
E. Prado
15-1

4
Summer Bird
T. Ice
K. Desormeaux
12-1

5
Luv Gov
D.W. Lukas
M. Mena
20-1


6
Charitable Man
K. McLaughlin
A. Garcia
3-1

7
Mine That Bird
B. Woolley Jr.
C. Borel
2-1

8
Flying Private
D.W. Lukas
J. Leparoux
12-1


9
Miner's Escape
N. Zito
J. Lezcano
15-1


10
Brave Victory
N. Zito
R. Maragh
15-1

Thanks for posting these. I think the odds are pretty spot on. I do think Charitable Man and Mine that Bird will flip flop and Charitable man will be the post time favorite going off at about 9/5. Hes the talk of the town and the barn will be unloading on him.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Gander

Thanks for posting these. I think the odds are pretty spot on. I do think Charitable Man and Mine that Bird will flip flop and Charitable man will be the post time favorite going off at about 9/5. Hes the talk of the town and the barn will be unloading on him.

listen your up in saratoga , i'm down here in mid-town , he may be the talk of the barn , but ,MTB is the talk of the town

[NTamm1215]

I don't think there's any chance that any horse other than MTB is the favorite in this race. In fact, I think Eric Donovan's morning line of 2-1 is high.

NT

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Gander

Thanks for posting these. I think the odds are pretty spot on. I do think Charitable Man and Mine that Bird will flip flop and Charitable man will be the post time favorite going off at about 9/5. Hes the talk of the town and the barn will be unloading on him.

There's almost no chance that you're right - despite the amount of money the KMc barn usually bets.

[Antitrust32]

I'm completely tossing Charitable Man... so I guess I hope he gets over bet.

Not going to do much with the race, thinking of a 3 horse $1 exacta and trifecta bet... Dunkirk, MTB & Flying Private (I know I may be crazy for this but I thought the horse showed some promise at Pimlico, should be able to get the distance and may be a price - could run third or maybe catch 2nd)


Also may put $20 on Dunkirk to win.

Thats about it.

[the_fat_man]

What I miss most about working on the backstretch is the opportunity to unload on those low price, little chance, sure things.

[slotdirt]

I would be absolutely and completely shocked if Dunkirk won this race.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

What I miss most about working on the backstretch is the opportunity to unload on those low price, little chance, sure things.

who do you like for the race fat man?

you think its good that I'm tossing Charity man, right?