Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers: West Coast 108

[Kasept]

SAR Travers S. (G1): West Coast 108 (Flatter) B. Baffert/M. Smith
SAR Sword Dancer S (G1): Sadler's Joy 105 (Kitten's Joy) T. Albertrani/J. Leparoux
SAR Personal Ensign S (G1): Forever Unbridled 98 (Unbridled's Song) D. Stewart/J. Rosario
SAR Forego S (G1): Drefong 107 Gio Ponti) B. Baffert/M. Smith
SAR Ballerina S (G1): By the Moon 94 Indian Charlie) M. Nevin/R. Maragh
SAR H. Allen Jerkens S (G1): Practical Joke 97 (Into Mischief) C. Brown/J. Rosario
SAR Ballston Spa S (G2): Lady Eli 103 (Divine Park) C. Brown/I. Ortiz
SAR Smart N Fancy S: Ginger N Rye 98 (More Than Ready) H. DePaz/R. Santana
SAR Better Talk Now S: Hieroglyphics 87 (Pioneerof the Nile) T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez

SAR Albany S: Twisted Tom 92 (Creative Cause) C. Brown/J. Castellano
SAR Seeking the Ante S: Cause We Are Loyal 50 (Creative Cause) D. O'Neill/M. Gutierrez
SAR Funny Cide S: Aveenu Malcainu 82 (Into Mischief) J. Englehart/L. Saez
SAR Fleet Indian S: Sunset Ridge 73 (Algorithms) C. Brown/J. Ortiz
SAR West Point S: Get Jets 101 (Scat Daddy) A. Dutrow/J. Velazquez
SAR Yaddo S: Bar of Gold 95 (Medaglia d'Oro) J. Kimmel/I. Ortiz
SAR New York Turf Writers Cup H (G1): Diplomat N/A (Kitten's Joy) K. Dalton/B. Dalton
SAR Riskaverse S: Defiant Honor 87 (Speightstown) J. Toner/J. Lezcano
SAR John's Call S: Infinite Wisdom 94 (Smart Strike) B. Lynch/I. Ortiz

DMR Torrey Pines S (G3): Munny Spunt-Via DQ -- (Munnings) D. O'Neill/D. Van Dyke
DMR Pat O'Brien S (G2): Giant Expectations 101 (Frost Giant) P. Eurton/G. Stevens
DMR Shared Belief S: Battle of Midway 101 (Smart Strike) J. Hollendorfer/F. Prat
DMR Harry F. Brubaker S: Cupid 99 (Tapit) B. Baffert/R. Bejarano
DMR Tranquility Lake S: Shenandoah Queen 93 (Henny Hughes) J. Sadler/V. Espinoza

CBY Mystic Lake Derby: Giant Payday 83 (Giant's Causeway) I. Wilkes/C. Landeros

WO Seaway S (G3): Ami's Mesa 101 (Sky Mesa) J. CarrollL. Contreras
WO Ontario Colleen S (G3): Enstone 90 (Tiznow) M. Casse/P. Husbands

MTH Philip H. Iselin S (G3): Just Call Kenny 102 (Jump Start) P. McBurney/E. Castro
MTH New Jersey Breeders H: Rainbow Heir 91 (Wildcat Heir) J. Servis/A. Gallardo
MTH Charles Hesse III H: Fuzzy Muzzle 86 (Closing Argument) J. Servis/N. Juarez
MTH Eleven North H: Bustin Out 88 (Bustin Stones) C. Spina/J. Ferrer

BTP Tah Dah S: Tango Run -- (Run Away and Hide) W. Cowans/R. Stokes III

TDN Governor's Buckeye Cup S: Mo Dont No 82 (Uncle Mo) J. Radosevich/R. Feliciano

TIM Coalition S: Blu Moon Ace 99 (Malibu Moon) K. Patterson/G. Almodovar

[10 pnt move up]

Seems about right, the Jerkins watching it and looking at the chart felt a little on the weak side. Personal Ensign was just slow.

I dont know why its decided that that Forever Unbridled is clearly better than Stellar Wind and leader in the clubhouse.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I dont know why its decided that that Forever Unbridled is clearly better than Stellar Wind and leader in the clubhouse.

Anyone that says that is blinded by irrational love for Songbird. Stellar Wind was the leader of the division before the race with three Grade 1s this year and in an even stronger position coming out...and I say that as a fan of Forever Unbridled. Then again, I'm a Stellar Wind fan too.

[10 pnt move up]

Pretty sure it was Greg Wolf on your show right after the race about Forever Unbridled.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Anyone that says that is blinded by irrational love for Songbird. Stellar Wind was the leader of the division before the race with three Grade 1s this year and in an even stronger position coming out...and I say that as a fan of Forever Unbridled. Then again, I'm a Stellar Wind fan too.

The lead-in story for the BC Distaff this year may be the impending showdown between Stellar Wind and Forever Unbridled, with Songbird taking a back seat. That's got to be a bit surprising for some.

A telling stat: Stellar Wind is 0 for 3 at 9f. Forever Unbridled is 6-3-0-2.

Stellar Wind has been stretched to the limit by Vale Dori twice this year at a flat mile. Forever Unbridled has looked loaded throughout in both her starts this year and has not felt the whip in either start (although they say she doesn't like the whip).

It will be interesting to see if either mare will come out for a race before the BC Distaff. Both horses seem to do best with lots of space between races. The last time either horse started ~1 month (that's a quick turnaround nowadays apparently) apart they both lost (albeit the BC Distaff). In fact, that is either mare's only loss in the past 14 months in Stellar Wind's case and the past 11 months in the case of Forever Unbridled.

If Stellar Wind does come out, presumably for the Zenyatta, she'll probably have to face Songbird. That might not mean much for those who believe Stellar Wind is simply better than Songbird, but in the grand scheme of things it might have repercussions for her BC run.

[10 pnt move up]

Reading Rick Porters comments I am not sure if she races again, he basically said thats not the filly I know, there has to be something wrong. Whether thats true or not he owns the horse so its his call.

I still think Abel Tasman is in play here in that race.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Reading Rick Porters comments I am not sure if she races again, he basically said thats not the filly I know, there has to be something wrong. Whether thats true or not he owns the horse so its his call.

The only thing wrong with Songbird is that she did not naturally improve from 3 to 4 which some people anticipated. She clearly has physical issues, else there wouldn't have been a delay to her season. In terms of form this year, her race yesterday was a huge step up.
At the same time, she hasn't taken a huge step backwards either, the way other top 3yo fillies like Open Mind, Silverbulletday, Excellent Meeting, Rachel Alexandra, Meadow Star and Light Light did.

Stellar Wind and Forever Unbridled might be better than her in general, but Songbird clearly has enough to win the BC Distaff should things swing in her favor.

She's not toast. Last time out, she was threatened by a no-name (actually: Martini Glass) who couldn't win a minor stakes at Thistledowns next out. Yesterday she just got reeled in by a multiple Grade 1 winner in career form. And her visually less-than-stellar Ogden Phipps should be reassessed, too, given the subsequent productivity of that race as you have well highlighted. The only horse that hasn't won a stakes out of there (yet) lost a Grade 1 sprint by a head with fractions slower than the 9f Personal Ensign.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The only thing wrong with Songbird is that she did not naturally improve from 3 to 4 which some people anticipated. She clearly has physical issues, else there wouldn't have been a delay to her season. In terms of form this year, her race yesterday was a huge step up.
At the same time, she hasn't taken a huge step backwards either, the way other top 3yo fillies like Open Mind, Silverbulletday, Excellent Meeting, Rachel Alexandra, Meadow Star and Light Light did.

Stellar Wind and Forever Unbridled might be better than her in general, but Songbird clearly has enough to win the BC Distaff should things swing in her favor.

She's not toast. Last time out, she was threatened by a no-name (actually: Martini Glass) who couldn't win a minor stakes at Thistledowns next out. Yesterday she just got reeled in by a multiple Grade 1 winner in career form. And her visually less-than-stellar Ogden Phipps should be reassessed, too, given the subsequent productivity of that race as you have well highlighted. The only horse that hasn't won a stakes out of there (yet) lost a Grade 1 sprint by a head with fractions slower than the 9f Personal Ensign.

I just dont think thats the filly that lost to Beholder by a nose.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I just dont think thats the filly that lost to Beholder by a nose.

Any difference in either direction can't be more than a length or so at best. Forever Unbridled was right there in BC Distaff last year.

The result of the Personal Ensign was little different than seeing Gorgeous get the better of Bayakoa, Stellar Wind defeating Beholder, or Summer Colony beating Azeri.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Any difference in either direction can't be more than a length or so at best. Forever Unbridled was right there in BC Distaff last year.

The result of the Personal Ensign was little different than seeing Gorgeous get the better of Bayakoa, Stellar Wind defeating Beholder, or Summer Colony beating Azeri.

I feel like watching Songbird at 4 was like watching Paseana at 6.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I feel like watching Songbird at 4 was like watching Paseana at 6.

I liken the visual "decline" in performance to watching a regional champ move into the main circuit. Still winning (most of the time) but having to work harder to do it.

Whatever you can say about Songbird's brilliance at 2 and 3, one has to admit that a large part of the theatrics was the fact that she was pummeling turf horses (Mokat) and maidens (She's A Warrior) at Santa Anita (4 times mind you) to start the season, then faced a pair of late-running sprinters (Cathryn Sophia and Carina Mia) at 9f and 10f. She had those over a barrel and that led to the inflation of her reputation. The BC Distaff was the true measuring stick of her overall ability as a 3yo. Given the relative pace advantage and the fact that she lost, she failed the world-beater acid test.

While she has not improved this year, her races this year to me easily fit with her performance in the BC Distaff. The Ogden Phipps, off a layoff and a ship, was a loaded race based on subsequent performances. The Delaware Handicap, her weakest performance, was at a distance that she in all likelihood doesn't care for. Similar speed-laden females like Azeri, Sky Beauty, Serena's Song, Saratoga Dew, Ashado and Rachel Alexandra were all vulnerable at 10f. Many of those actually got beat at the distance by lesser rivals. Yesterday she got tagged by a horse that unlike Carina Mia and Cathryn Sophia, could sustain a run and had threatened to run her down in the past. Without as deep a field, but still with a formidable rival, the race played out much like the BC Distaff last year. It was a slight form reversal (by Forever Unbridled) at best.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I liken the visual "decline" in performance to watching a regional champ move into the main circuit. Still winning (most of the time) but having to work harder to do it.

Whatever you can say about Songbird's brilliance at 2 and 3, one has to admit that a large part of the theatrics was the fact that she was pummeling turf horses (Mokat) and maidens (She's A Warrior) at Santa Anita (4 times mind you) to start the season, then faced a pair of late-running sprinters (Cathryn Sophia and Carina Mia) at 9f and 10f. She had those over a barrel and that led to the inflation of her reputation. The BC Distaff was the true measuring stick of her overall ability as a 3yo. Given the relative pace advantage and the fact that she lost, she failed the world-beater acid test.

While she has not improved this year, her races this year to me easily fit with her performance in the BC Distaff. The Ogden Phipps, off a layoff and a ship, was a loaded race based on subsequent performances. The Delaware Handicap, her weakest performance, was at a distance that she in all likelihood doesn't care for. Similar speed-laden females like Azeri, Sky Beauty, Serena's Song, Saratoga Dew, Ashado and Rachel Alexandra were all vulnerable at 10f. Many of those actually got beat at the distance by lesser rivals. Yesterday she got tagged by a horse that unlike Carina Mia and Cathryn Sophia, could sustain a run and had threatened to run her down in the past. Without as deep a field, but still with a formidable rival, the race played out much like the BC Distaff last year. It was a slight form reversal (by Forever Unbridled) at best.

a very very reasonable post!

I also think the shipping every dang race has to add up over time and wonder if it hindered a bit of development. You will never know that but its been a long 2 years.

[10 pnt move up]

Lowest stake winning Beyer in a race at Saratoga?

SAR Seeking the Ante S: Cause We Are Loyal 50 (Creative Cause) D. O'Neill/M. Gutierrez

[10 pnt move up]

I was very impressed with Battle of Midway. He has always been a talented horse but with the blinkers added he sure aired in this last race. Nothing about the effort can I critique and i think that was a very strong listed stake.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I was very impressed with Battle of Midway. He has always been a talented horse but with the blinkers added he sure aired in this last race. Nothing about the effort can I critique and i think that was a very strong listed stake.

He's a nice horse, but I can't believe he's still holding his form (actually he's improving). Of all the horses that were likely to burn out from the Triple Crown trail, I would have banked on it being a colt that debuted in a 6f race in January that made its 4th career start in the Santa Anita Derby (and then on to Kentucky). I thought it was over for him after the Haskell debacle.

But the horse apparently likes to do the opposite of what you'd expect. What other horse has added blinkers and gone from a front-running style to settling into a stalking position? Added bonus is that he reversed form (to the tune of 10 lengths or so) on Gormley who was basically gifted the Santa Anita Derby when Battle of Midway did all the dirty work.

I presume the Pennsylvania Derby with its big purse is next. Personally if he were to win, I'd hope they'd still skip the BC Classic and maybe clean up late season prizes like the Clark, Cigar Mile, and/or Hollywood Derby. Next year seems like his time to shine.

[South Beach Luv]

Ami's Mesa win at Woodbine was impressive. She's never ran on dirt before but wonder if she'll be considered for the BC FM Sprint off that effort.

[Seattleallstar]

how did that Nero maiden race stack up Beyer wise?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

how did that Nero maiden race stack up Beyer wise?

63

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

63

it was a very strong pace he set, and from the rail which has been death to break from in sprints this season.

I thought it was the best mdn race I had seen at del mar.

[RHT2004]

I love FU and even Im not sure if she's better then Stellar Wind, though at 9f and at a likely better price I would have to stick with FU.