Can a Filly win the Derby tis year???

MisterB · #1 02-26-2007, 04:22 PM

Very Possible

Rags to Riches has the Blood, and heart to. Lets see what happens on the Left Coast March 11th in the Santa Anita Oaks first, then maybe she'll try the boys in April in the Santa Anita Derby. That should give her three starts in 2007 at two turns.

The Indomitable DrugS · #2 02-26-2007, 04:30 PM

She's not winning the Derby.

As bad as the 3yo filly division looks though---she's just about a cinch to run 1st or 2nd in the Oaks

Thunder Gulch · #3 02-26-2007, 04:40 PM

It takes an exceptional filly and a subpar group of colts. Perhaps Winning Colors was an exception to this, but I just don't see anything on her level at this point.

randallscott35 · #4 02-26-2007, 05:01 PM

The fillies are slow this year. An below average crop isn't going to produce a Derby winner. That being said the colts aren't doing much for me yet either.

miraja2 · #5 02-26-2007, 05:09 PM

I think it is WAY to early to start saying this year's crop of colts is no good. Are any of the colts ready to win the Derby right now? No, but usually most colts aren't this many weeks out. Many of these colts are far from their peak, and will be in better shape in May and June than they were in January or February. That is the nature of the game.
We haven't even seen Street Sense or Great Hunter yet.
Nobiz, Ravel, and Notional have all looked pretty good.
Horses like Any Given Saturday and Adore the Gold are largely unproven, but could develop.
I think it is about 500/1 that a filly wins the race.

randallscott35 · #6 02-26-2007, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

I think it is WAY to early to start saying this year's crop of colts is no good. Are any of the colts ready to win the Derby right now? No, but usually most colts aren't this many weeks out. Many of these colts are far from their peak, and will be in better shape in May and June than they were in January or February. That is the nature of the game.
We haven't even seen Street Sense or Great Hunter yet.
Nobiz, Ravel, and Notional have all looked pretty good.
Horses like Any Given Saturday and Adore the Gold are largely unproven, but could develop.
I think it is about 500/1 that a filly wins the race.

You could tell the crop last year was good by this time. Don't think its too early to say it isn't deep or fast yet....Can that change, maybe. Doubt it. Where are they going to come from?

Hickory Hill Hoff · #7 02-26-2007, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterB

Very Possible

Rags to Riches has the Blood, and heart to. Lets see what happens on the Left Coast March 11th in the Santa Anita Oaks first, then maybe she'll try the boys in April in the Santa Anita Derby. That should give her three starts in 2007 at two turns.

Someone will win the Derby...but not anyone in this weak filly class.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #8 02-26-2007, 07:06 PM

this is funny... the horse has 3 lifetime starts and your thinking she can win the derby ? very good filly, great breeding ... 0 chance to win the derby.. also i have returned from florida

POINTGIVEN1985 · #9 02-26-2007, 07:06 PM

this is funny... the horse has 3 lifetime starts and your thinking she can win the derby ? very good filly, great breeding ... 0 chance to win the derby.. also i have returned from florida

MisterB · #10 02-26-2007, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

this is funny... the horse has 3 lifetime starts and your thinking she can win the derby ? very good filly, great breeding ... 0 chance to win the derby.. also i have returned from florida

She will have 6 by then, and 3 on 2 turns. I didn't say she will win the derby, but it could happen if she continues to go up the way she has in her last 3. She is on the upside, not the slide. Have you looked at any of her races at all. That last race showed allot of class. At any rate, she cost 1.9 mil, so she has a future somewhere.

tanner12oz · #11 02-26-2007, 07:22 PM

no chance

POINTGIVEN1985 · #12 02-26-2007, 07:23 PM

i went to gulfstream on saturday the 24th, i like it alot, i bet horses all day and then played poker untill about 10 at night. i went there with $450 for the day, i ended up walking out with $935, so it definitly was a good day.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #13 02-26-2007, 07:26 PM

i have seen all of her races... she has beat a total of zero good fillies

MisterB · #14 02-26-2007, 07:30 PM

Do you think she can make the first sat in may?

zippyneedsawin · #15 02-26-2007, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i went to gulfstream on saturday the 24th, i like it alot, i bet horses all day and then played poker untill about 10 at night. i went there with $450 for the day, i ended up walking out with $935, so it definitly was a good day.

My opinion of a track always goes up when I walk out with more money than I came in with!

POINTGIVEN1985 · #16 02-26-2007, 07:33 PM

once again i think she is a very good filly and im sure as of now shes favored for the oaks but i give her 0 shot to win the kentucky derby, i also like a filly named boca granda a little better then her at this point .

POINTGIVEN1985 · #17 02-26-2007, 07:34 PM

i know what you mean i was down to my last 100 at 1 point then i hit Jambalaya, after the day of live racing i was at 500 only up a few bucks, i went on a nice poker run, and really turned it all around.

zippyneedsawin · #18 02-26-2007, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterB

Very Possible

Rags to Riches has the Blood, and heart to. Lets see what happens on the Left Coast March 11th in the Santa Anita Oaks first, then maybe she'll try the boys in April in the Santa Anita Derby. That should give her three starts in 2007 at two turns.

I think it's a lot to ask. If everything falls into place for her, maybe. --meaning she's peaking at the right time and the potential field appears to be weaking (via injuries or just unimpressive performances)

Mac88 · #19 02-26-2007, 07:36 PM

She is quality through and through, but honestly she has very little shot of winning the Derby. And in my opinion they would be doing her a disservice by running her. Agree with earlier post that in this class she pretty much is guaranteed to be first or second in this years Oaks barring the unforseen. Why throw her into a 20 horse field, especially since her style unless I am wrong is to come from of the pace. Traffic trouble then also becomes an issue as well as racing luck. Winning Colors did it by going wire to wire and avoiding this trouble.

She might prove to be a nice filly and I believe she will do some big things is she stays healthy, so am hoping she avoids the Derby

bugsoup · #20 02-26-2007, 07:45 PM

no the oaks will be a better fit for her.
to be it does not matter that she will have 6 races under her belt with some being two turns.