April 2yr olds in training sale April/Keeneland

[MisterB]

How will these Freshman sires with two-year-olds do this year? Aldebaran, Empire Maker, Harlan’s Holiday, Hold That Tiger, Mineshaft, and Vindication.

Anybody going??

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by MisterB

How will these Freshman sires with two-year-olds do this year? Aldebaran, Empire Maker, Harlan’s Holiday, Hold That Tiger, Mineshaft, and Vindication.

Anybody going??

I'll be there but doubt I will buy anything.
I like Hold that Tiger as a stallion, kind of overlooked. I thought that he would have been better suited to US dirt racing. He is similar in many ways to Johannesburg and is fairly closely related. This sale does not have a great track record in producing top racehorses.
There is a great deal of expectation for Vindication and of all these I think that he should produce the best 2 yo runners as most of the horses on your list dont seem to be early running sire types.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

mineshaft and empire maker both have a shot to be storm cat and ap indy type sires...

[MisterB]

This is the first for the Polytack. Looks like some Canadians will be interested

Hip #100 looks interesting:

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Last years KEE April 2-year-old in training sale did as well....if not better than any such 2yo sale in the country.

The horse who worked the fastest quarter mile on dirt was the undefeated Graded Stakes winner Day Pass. Without the aid of blinkers, in what was truly an insane effort, he came wide off the turn (not something you want to do at the old KEE) and totally blitzed a 1/4 mile in 20.60 seconds. Inspite of the fact that his exercise rider, who was a pretty big guy, lost the irons about 2/3rds of the way through the work. It was unreal.

Here's the clip for anyone who wants to see it: http://www.keeneland.com/livesales/s...asp?file=99.rm

Day Pass only brought a shockingly low $725,000 after that work, probably because he sold for just $50K as a yearling, has an intense sprint pedigree, and isn't bred to ever be a real attractive commerical stallion.

A handful of horses (I believe 5) turned in the fastest quarter mile work of the day on dirt..at 10 1/5th seconds. One of them, a filly by Belmont Stakes winner Point Given, would be named Point Ashley and become a Grade 1 winner. After an injury, she's already been sold since for much more money.

The fastest turf work of the sale was turned in by New York Bred Admiral Bird, and it was an eye-catching one. He won his debut at Saratoga, and has a couple close defeats against open stakes company.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by MisterB

How will these Freshman sires with two-year-olds do this year? Aldebaran, Empire Maker, Harlan’s Holiday, Hold That Tiger, Mineshaft, and Vindication.

Anybody going??

Video is available on the upcoming F&T sale if you want to look at some of their progeny yourself

http://fasigtipton.sitespace.com/default.asp?p=1

I haven't checked out the Keeneland catalog or website myself, this Calder sale always seemed more interesting.

[Mac88]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I'll be there but doubt I will buy anything.
I like Hold that Tiger as a stallion, kind of overlooked. I thought that he would have been better suited to US dirt racing. He is similar in many ways to Johannesburg and is fairly closely related. This sale does not have a great track record in producing top racehorses.
There is a great deal of expectation for Vindication and of all these I think that he should produce the best 2 yo runners as most of the horses on your list dont seem to be early running sire types.

Agree with comments on Hold That Tiger. Loved him in that years BC JUvenile after that scintilating stretch run race before in Europe and with his breeding thought he would take to AMerican dirt extremely well. Effort was Ok but I recall he had some gate issues and a questionable ride by Kinane if I remember correctly. Was thrilled when they brought him back for Fall of next season and again took a shot on him in that years Classic.

Think you are right on, as he will be a bit overlooked but think he will prove quite a successful sire

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Last years KEE April 2-year-old in training sale did as well....if not better than any such 2yo sale in the country.

The horse who worked the fastest quarter mile on dirt was the undefeated Graded Stakes winner Day Pass. Without the aid of blinkers, in what was truly an insane effort, he came wide off the turn (not something you want to do at the old KEE) and totally blitzed a 1/4 mile in 20.60 seconds. Inspite of the fact that his exercise rider, who was a pretty big guy, lost the irons about 2/3rds of the way through the work. It was unreal.

Here's the clip for anyone who wants to see it: http://www.keeneland.com/livesales/s...asp?file=99.rm

Day Pass only brought a shockingly low $725,000 after that work, probably because he sold for just $50K as a yearling, has an intense sprint pedigree, and isn't bred to ever be a real attractive commerical stallion.

A handful of horses (I believe 5) turned in the fastest quarter mile work of the day on dirt..at 10 1/5th seconds. One of them, a filly by Belmont Stakes winner Point Given, would be named Point Ashley and become a Grade 1 winner. After an injury, she's already been sold since for much more money.

The fastest turf work of the sale was turned in by New York Bred Admiral Bird, and it was an eye-catching one. He won his debut at Saratoga, and has a couple close defeats against open stakes company.

2 graded stakes winners, one of which has already broken down out, of 226 catalogued is not a great record.

Just based on last years Keeneland September sale the Vindications were pretty hot and looked good. I will be interested in seeing some of the Zavata's. His progeny was selling way over his stud fee last September.

I was not impressed with the Harlans Holiday yearlings last September. Of course how could you go wrong if you have the money to buy a Mineshaft baby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

2 graded stakes winners, one of which has already broken down out, of 226 catalogued is not a great record.

I think the feb fasig tipton sale at CRC last year, had 4 graded stakes winner come out of it. That's widely considered the best 2yo in training sale. The same sale TGM went for $16 million at, and many horses brought seven figures.

I don't view them with the intention of looking to buy a horse out of it---I just view the fastest works.

I should probably have said that the fastest working horses at that sale last year, have proven to be strong athletes....and compare favorably with all the other fastest working horses from the other 2-year-old in training sales last year.

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

2 graded stakes winners, one of which has already broken down out, of 226 catalogued is not a great record.

It goes to show that pedigree is an important factor in soundness. Breeding for speed over a couple 100 yards proves nothing. You may as well watch a horse breeze.

Buy a horse that's fast over 200 yards and maybe that's what you get. A fast 200 yd horse. Happy bidding.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by sumitas

It goes to show that pedigree is an important factor in soundness. Breeding for speed over a couple 100 yards proves nothing. You may as well watch a horse breeze.

Buy a horse that's fast over 200 yards and maybe that's what you get. A fast 200 yd horse. Happy bidding.

I dont understand your correlation of pedigree and soundness. It is not as if the pedigrees in this sale are bred to be quarterhorses.
I think one of the telling stats is that of the 226 that were entered only 87 sold last year.

[sumitas]

I completely agree with you CS...One can never tell from a pedigree alone for sure, other than to avoid some red flags they do present.

One needs to look at the entire pedigree and conformation, etc.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by sumitas

I completely agree with you CS...One can never tell from a pedigree alone for sure, other than to avoid some red flags they do present.

One needs to look at the entire pedigree and conformation, etc.

The biggest problem that I have with these sales is the untold physical toll they take on the horses. Taking what Drugs says at face value the top two 2 yo sales produced 6 graded stakes winners last year out of the 500 or so top quality horses that were entered in these sales. There may be more that go on to win stakes but the great majority of these horses never do anything. You also have to realize that these are select sales where the horses must have a strong pedigree and good conformation to get in. The fact that so many of these types of horses dont make it is discouraging.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The biggest problem that I have with these sales is the untold physical toll they take on the horses. Taking what Drugs says at face value the top two 2 yo sales produced 6 graded stakes winners last year out of the 500 or so top quality horses that were entered in these sales. There may be more that go on to win stakes but the great majority of these horses never do anything. You also have to realize that these are select sales where the horses must have a strong pedigree and good conformation to get in. The fact that so many of these types of horses dont make it is discouraging.

very true esp. when one considers that of the 223 cataloged in last years sale nearly 30% never even made it to the sales ring...while some were early outs most were after the first round of works....

One horse of note from that sale last year that isn't a stakes winner yet but may have that in his future is Ketchikan

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

very true esp. when one considers that of the 223 cataloged in last years sale nearly 30% never even made it to the sales ring...while some were early outs most were after the first round of works....

One horse of note from that sale last year that isn't a stakes winner yet but may have that in his future is Ketchikan

The Green Monkey is the best example of what a 2 year old sale can do to a horse. The fact that he is high profile allows everyone to see the various problems that these horses often come up with. They dont all just break legs and die but so many have these nagging issues that never allow them to get it together.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The Green Monkey is the best example of what a 2 year old sale can do to a horse. The fact that he is high profile allows everyone to see the various problems that these horses often come up with. They dont all just break legs and die but so many have these nagging issues that never allow them to get it together.

The two fastest 1/8th mile workouts in two year old in training sales last year were turned in by TGM (9.80) and a Red Bullet colt, I believe named Unbridled Slew (9.60) Both horses fetched insane amounts of money, and neither has yet to start.

On the other hand, the two fastest 1/4 mile works in the country at these sales last year belong to Day Pass and Tiz Wonderful (20.60 each) Both of which Graded Stakes winners--but the latter is already injured. The former is a lightly raced true sprinter, who they are trying to make into a Derby horse.

The two fastest working horses at Barrets select '05 were What A Song (20.80) and Brother Derek (21.00) Both of them turned out to be exceptional horses---but WAS won his first three starts, twice beating champion 2 year old Stevie Woderboy, and than dropped dead after a superlative Del Mar Stakes win. Brother Derek ended up being the morning line Derby favorite, however, he's tailed off since.

There have been very tough horses come out of these kind of 2yo in training sales Skip Away, Xtra Heat, Silver Charm, Afleet Alex etc. But, they are probably starting to get carried away, and asking these young horses for a little too much.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

very true esp. when one considers that of the 223 cataloged in last years sale nearly 30% never even made it to the sales ring...while some were early outs most were after the first round of works....

One horse of note from that sale last year that isn't a stakes winner yet but may have that in his future is Ketchikan

There were a couple horses from that sale that ran really well at first asking in Saratoga MSW races as well. Panty Raid being one of them. I thought it was a pretty solid sale because I was just focusing on the fastest workers.

I guess beyond them, none, or very few of the slower working ones seemed to have panned out.