chelokee .matz derby horse..?

hoovesupsideyourhead · #1 03-06-2007, 05:47 PM

love the way this one came back to win..lots of smiles in the w.c...won at a mile and 1/8th...hes 200 to 1 in the futures...if he comes back in a graded event ..id think he would do well..then on to the derby..fla derby...he ran the 1 and 1/8 ..149.64 scat daddy did it in 149.11

POINTGIVEN1985 · #2 03-06-2007, 05:57 PM

i dont think so, he looked good last time out had alot of problems and still won, but what about the race before that ? i dont think this horse has a shot at the derby and i dont think matz is one to rush a horse, and at this point this horse has never faced any real competition, so i dont think the fla derby is a good idea at this point

txshorns02 · #3 03-06-2007, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

love the way this one came back to win..lots of smiles in the w.c...won at a mile and 1/8th...hes 200 to 1 in the futures...if he comes back in a graded event ..id think he would do well..then on to the derby..fla derby...he ran the 1 and 1/8 ..149.64 scat daddy did it in 149.11

Where are you getting 200/1 at?...Bodog has him for 40/1?....

hoovesupsideyourhead · #4 03-06-2007, 07:21 PM

it was at wynn las vegas

The Bid · #5 03-06-2007, 07:43 PM

No chance

He did run huge last out though, he shuffled back and had to lose 5 lengths

POINTGIVEN1985 · #6 03-06-2007, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid

No chance

He did run huge last out though, he shuffled back and had to lose 5 lengths

i was going to say no chance, but when i do that i get myself in trouble so i stated it the way i did

POINTGIVEN1985 · #7 03-06-2007, 07:56 PM

i wont answer, i guess he might have a 1/100000 chance to win the derby, and im sure he could run well in the fla derby but not win... hes not better then adore the gold, nobiz, stormello, or scat daddy, and im pretty sure there all pointing to the fla derby

The Indomitable DrugS · #8 03-06-2007, 07:56 PM

He's the only horse in training who fits that whacky Derby profile I came up with.

The 7 horses who have fit it over the last four years have compiled a 7-4-2-0 record in the race...including a couple of 50/1 shots who ran 1st, and 2nd.

However, the problem I see with Chelokee, is that he's just plain not good enough. Even with a voodoo black-magic trend in his corner, I wouldn't touch him.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #9 03-06-2007, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's the only horse in training who fits that whacky Derby profile I came up.

The 7 horses who have fit it over the last four years have compiled a 7-4-2-0 record in the race...including a couple of 50/1 shots who ran 1st, and 2nd.

However, the problem I see with Chelokee, is that he's just plain not good enough. Even with voodoo black-magic trend in his corner, I wouldn't touch him.

i forgot to mention that.... thats i feel he's just plain not good enough

POINTGIVEN1985 · #10 03-06-2007, 08:06 PM

ok i will answer, i think there are 20 3 yr olds right now that are hands down better, that have more experience, and that have alot more seasoning, i also was not that impressed with his last race, he ran big but final time was slow, on a track that played fast all day, he also faced no one that day. also his race before what was the excuse then ?

SniperSB23 · #11 03-06-2007, 08:31 PM

Matz is babying him anyways.

“We'll probably give him some time, and of course, see how he comes out of this,” said Matz. “He's acting like he's that caliber and he deserves the chance, but I think the Florida Derby comes back a little quick. We ran back on short rest for this race, and I knew he would have to go on short rest for one of these races, so we figured let's do that now and rest before his next race.”

If he thinks the horse can't come back in four weeks to run in the Florida Derby then how the heck does he expect him to come back in the Kentucky Derby on four week rest or less if he skips the Florida Derby? And god forbid if he actually won the Derby how could he possibly come back in two weeks for the Preakness.

lemoncrush · #12 03-06-2007, 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i wont answer, i guess he might have a 1/100000 chance to win the derby, and im sure he could run well in the fla derby but not win... hes not better then adore the gold, nobiz, stormello, or scat daddy, and im pretty sure there all pointing to the fla derby

Incorrect. Scat Daddy and Adore the Gold will be in the FLA Derby. Nobiz will end up in the Wood; Stormello probably the Blue Grass.

randallscott35 · #13 03-06-2007, 09:11 PM

He's slow and the FOY was slow. Not from Florida this year.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #14 03-06-2007, 10:09 PM

ravel Circular Quay
nobiz any given saturday
stormello summer doldrums
scat daddy wafi city
king of the roxy Forefathers
bold start Drums of Thunder
liquidity also tiz wonderful was tons better but hes injured
notional
great hunter
rags to riches
boca grande
adore the gold
hard spun
street sense
ez warrior

#15 03-07-2007, 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

love the way this one came back to win..lots of smiles in the w.c...won at a mile and 1/8th...hes 200 to 1 in the futures...if he comes back in a graded event ..id think he would do well..then on to the derby..fla derby...he ran the 1 and 1/8 ..149.64 scat daddy did it in 149.11

obviously a late developer, and I too was impressed with him. I was on track for both of his races. He was a short horse going a mile , then overcame difficulty to get up against a couple of good ones in the last one, on what some described as a conveyor belt. He may not make the derby, but i'd look forward to a good season ahead for him. I trust in Matz good judgement. I'm rooting for him, like I did for Corinthian last year.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #16 03-07-2007, 01:55 AM

well one thing that is a fact... at this point almost every horse i named even the fillies have done more then him, the only one that hasent is wafi city, they have done about the same

Kasept · #17 03-07-2007, 06:21 AM

If this conversation is about Chelokee's merits as a Derby candidate, then Saturday's results in FL and CA make him bona fide. Not only was his win done in a fashion that spells success in KY, but Sam P's quality placement behind Great Hunter in the Lewis flattered the Matz-Centennial runner as well. And Centennial absolutely would like to get to Louisville with Chelokee.

Kasept · #18 03-07-2007, 06:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

well one thing that is a fact... at this point almost every horse i named even the fillies have done more then him, the only one that hasent is wafi city, they have done about the same

There's something things you don't seem to get about how this process works. The most glaring is that horses don't all develop on a set timetable. They aren't trains in Mussolini's Italy. Of course others "have doine more than him" or whoever. It's hardly a revelation that precocious two year olds "have done more" than ones that were held back as they grew physically or matured mentally.

The idea is to project talent and potential as the division players approach the spring. Any number of horses you mention as "better" than Chelokee AREN'T GOING TO GET ANY BETTER THAN THEY ARE NOW whereas the Chelokees, Deadly Dealers and For You Reppos, et al, are forward moving. Three year olds, especially lightly-raced three year olds, can progress rapidly at this time of year. You may be comparing a three year old born in January or February to one that was an April or May foal who is only approaching a degree of their potential prowess now. And as for the fillies, they are always ahead of the colts early.

Dunbar · #19 03-07-2007, 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by txshorns02

Where are you getting 200/1 at?...Bodog has him for 40/1?....

He is 85/1 at Bookmaker, which is where CRIS's US accts have been transferred.

--Dunbar

ArlJim78 · #20 03-07-2007, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

well one thing that is a fact... at this point almost every horse i named even the fillies have done more then him, the only one that hasent is wafi city, they have done about the same

First of all, how do you define "done more"?

Second, when you're looking for and up and coming horse like hooves is trying to do with this thread, its a given that other horses have done more AT THIS TIME. What he is trying to do i project forward what might happen given the rapid development you sometimes see in these young horses.

To post a list of horses and say that they are right now hands down better than Chelokee is preposterous. The concept is not who wins a race today, its who wins the race in two months.

With your track record of horrible predictions, I would think you might want to listen more and think more before always shooting from the hip with whatever comes to mind. Chelokee may not end up to be a derby horse but I'm just suggesting that the competition for this years derby isn't such that you can make a whole lot of solid predictions at this point.