Derby horses

The Indomitable DrugS · #1 03-06-2007, 09:11 PM

I'd be curious to know what people view as the single most underrated and single most overrated performance, by a horse who is being viewed as a serious Derby contender right now.

When I got to thinking about this, there was a flood of performances by horses being viewed as serious contenders whom I felt were greatly overrated.

I would give Hard Spun's 4th place finish to a bad field in the Southwest Stakes the nod for most underrated performance...however, his prior Stake wins are one of tons in the hunt for the overrated title.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #2 03-06-2007, 09:17 PM

Overrated ?
How bout, Nobiz???
A very big play against at a short price in the Derby...if he gets there...

Sightseek · #3 03-06-2007, 09:21 PM

All of Circular Quay's races were pretty over-rated to me.

philcski · #4 03-06-2007, 09:28 PM

Stormello's Fountain of Youth. People are going to focus on the come home time as poor but look at the pace he set, 1:09 4/5 was a full 15 lengths faster than the Gulfstream Handicap. The fact that he lost by a head bob after that is a fantastic performance.

Cajungator26 · #5 03-06-2007, 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Stormello's Fountain of Youth. People are going to focus on the come home time as poor but look at the pace he set, 1:09 4/5 was a full 15 lengths faster than the Gulfstream Handicap. The fact that he lost by a head bob after that is a fantastic performance.

Not sure he's underrated, though... there were quite a few members on here who felt the same way as you. He ran a hell of a race IMO, but I'm concerned that 1 1/8 is about as far as he's going to go. Thoughts?

Sightseek · #6 03-06-2007, 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Stormello's Fountain of Youth. People are going to focus on the come home time as poor but look at the pace he set, 1:09 4/5 was a full 15 lengths faster than the Gulfstream Handicap. The fact that he lost by a head bob after that is a fantastic performance.

Agree...and how would you rate Scat Daddy's performance?

saucon17 · #7 03-06-2007, 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

All of Circular Quay's races were pretty over-rated to me.

I thought his race in the Risen Star was unbelivable to finish 5th
after jumping the horse and rider in the spill

Cajungator26 · #8 03-06-2007, 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saucon17

I thought his race in the Risen Star was unbelivable to finish 5th
after jumping the horse and rider in the spill

I agree... I think he's got a huge shot on Saturday.

Java Gold · #9 03-06-2007, 09:40 PM

Watch the 2006 Hopeful against Scat Daddy.

Sightseek · #10 03-06-2007, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Watch the 2006 Hopeful against Scat Daddy.

That would be #1 on the overrated list.

NTamm1215 · #11 03-06-2007, 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

That would be #1 on the overrated list.

This race often gets discredited but all I can ask is what more should the horse have done? Yeah the pace was fast and the setup was perfect for him, and then he did EXACTLY what he was supposed to do, exploding from the back of the pack and winning easy. Say what you want about any of his other races, but how could this be an overrated performance?

NT

Java Gold · #12 03-06-2007, 09:50 PM

Just the opposite for me...totally dominated the field. Sure you got your race right..'sightseek"?

JG

pony1325 · #13 03-06-2007, 09:52 PM

I'm totally throwing out Hard Spun's race. OP had one of the worst inside speed biases I've ever seen there. The track had been rolled all weekend to get all of the moisture out due to concerns about freezing. He carried 3 to 7 # more than any other horse. All the speed was to his inside so when he broke out he was wide into the first turn. The jock kept him wide and tried to make a move coming wide out of the last turn. No horse was able to do that the entire weekend. Plus, that jock was not familiar with OP. I'll give him one more shot.

blackthroatedwind · #14 03-06-2007, 09:55 PM

At least on message boards, by definition all of these horses are overrated, but it's hard not to have Circular Quay on your list. What exactly has he accomplished that people keep talking about him like he's ANYTHING special? At least Scat Daddy, who I am not a huge fan of, has delivered a few times and even overcame adversity in his Saratoga Stakes win ( over an arguably talented Teuflesburg, at least sprinter, who got an ideal set up that day ).

Circular Quay may well win this weekend, as the race is not super tough, but so far he is all talk and no substance.

I kind of agree with both of DrugS's points about Hard Spun ( God I hate when that happens ) but would say Adore the Gold is somewhat underrated. I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

Cajungator26 · #15 03-06-2007, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pony1325

I'm totally throwing out Hard Spun's race. OP had one of the worst inside speed biases I've ever seen there. The track had been rolled all weekend to get all of the moisture out due to concerns about freezing. He carried 3 to 7 # more than any other horse. All the speed was to his inside so when he broke out he was wide into the first turn. The jock kept him wide and tried to make a move coming wide out of the last turn. No horse was able to do that the entire weekend. Plus, that jock was not familiar with OP. I'll give him one more shot.

What do you know... a logical post.

I haven't written him off yet either.

Cajungator26 · #16 03-06-2007, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At least on message boards, by definition all of these horses are overrated, but it's hard not to have Circular Quay on your list. What exactly has he accomplished that people keep talking about him like he's ANYTHING special? At least Scat Daddy, who I am not a huge fan of, has delivered a few times and even overcame adversity in his Saratoga Stakes win ( over an arguably talented Teuflesburg, at least sprinter, who got an ideal set up that day ).

Circular Quay may well win this weekend, as the race is not super tough, but so far he is all talk and no substance.

I kind of agree with both of DrugS's points about Hard Spun ( God I hate when that happens ) but would say Adore the Gold is somewhat underrated. I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

I felt that Hal's My Hope ran a decent race as well in the FOY. What did you think?

blackthroatedwind · #17 03-06-2007, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I felt that Hal's My Hope ran a decent race as well in the FOY. What did you think?

Relative to what?

I will have to watch it again but it didn't seem to me like anyone ran particularly well.

Except, of course, Johannesburg Star.

NTamm1215 · #18 03-06-2007, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At least on message boards, by definition all of these horses are overrated, but it's hard not to have Circular Quay on your list. What exactly has he accomplished that people keep talking about him like he's ANYTHING special? At least Scat Daddy, who I am not a huge fan of, has delivered a few times and even overcame adversity in his Saratoga Stakes win ( over an arguably talented Teuflesburg, at least sprinter, who got an ideal set up that day ).

Circular Quay may well win this weekend, as the race is not super tough, but so far he is all talk and no substance.

I kind of agree with both of DrugS's points about Hard Spun ( God I hate when that happens ) but would say Adore the Gold is somewhat underrated. I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

I think a little ground can be given to Adore the Gold since it was his first start around two turns and I think he will improve quite a bit.

As far as your statement on Circular Quay, I think everyone fell in love with his quick late moves in the Bashford Manor and Hopeful and that's what earned him favoritism in the BC Juvenile. Forgotten among it all was that the pace scenario was perfect and those raecs were contested around one turn. However, based on what I said before about the Hopeful in particular, didn't he do exactly what he was supposed to do, given the way the situation unfolded?

I think Circular Quay will eventually make his living around one turn. He has shown the style thus far that would be great at 7 furlongs.

NT

NTamm1215 · #19 03-06-2007, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I felt that Hal's My Hope ran a decent race as well in the FOY. What did you think?

Considering he was completely overmatched I think he ran the best of the rest. He'll fit very nicely in a second level allowance race at GP.

NT

POINTGIVEN1985 · #20 03-06-2007, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

All of Circular Quay's races were pretty over-rated to me.

totally agree