Short handicapping lesson...no.2

[blackthroatedwind]

To be honest, you sort of just need to watch as many replays as you can and learn for yourself what is a bad trip or what is important. It's very hard to quantify things.

One thing I find important is position. What I mean by that is multifaceted. Did your horse encounter early trouble that placed him farther back than he should have been? Did your horse find itself too close to a fast pace? In order to do this you have to have a reasonable mental picture of how a race " should " unfold and how it actually unfolds. It's esoteric, and not what most people think when they say " trips ", but I think it gets to the heart of trip handicapping.

The best way to start is to watch the replay, pan and head on, enough times so you have noted where every horse was on the turn ( or turns ), and if any of them had trouble. From there you disect the race and see how the trip may have affected the horse.

From here it's important to distinguish between real trouble and fake trouble. The horse who saved ground behind a contentious pace, yet had to steady for room while waiting to get out, had a good trip overall. The horse who tried to rally wide behind a slow pace that never came back had an untenable trip.

All in all, you have to watch a lot of races, and learn for yourself what trips are. It's a lot of work, but I find it the most fascinating part of the game, and potentially very profitable.

[fjh513]

Another question from a beginner.
I hope I can continue to do this from time to time as "Lesson 1" helped a lot.

This one involves watching a race or a replay.
What should I be looking for ? How the hell can you tell if a horse is going all out to win or is there for exercise?
What constitutes a bad trip and how do I spot it ?
What do you guys / girls expect to come away with when you watch a race or replay...what do you put in the back of your mind for future reference ?

Thanks again for your input.I know these questions are very basic to most of you.

[blackthroatedwind]

Nice job on the order Beth.

[paisjpq]

oops...tried to move andy's reply...but since it posted before the thread started, chronologically it went first...my bad, sorry guys.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Nice job on the order Beth.

'I know art, thanks for noticing'

name the movie for 10 points.

[fjh513]

I take full responsibility for messing up the sequence...

Bad timing on my part.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by fjh513

Another question from a beginner.
I hope I can continue to do this from time to time as "Lesson 1" helped a lot.

This one involves watching a race or a replay.
What should I be looking for ? How the hell can you tell if a horse is going all out to win or is there for exercise?
What constitutes a bad trip and how do I spot it ?
What do you guys / girls expect to come away with when you watch a race or replay...what do you put in the back of your mind for future reference ?

Thanks again for your input.I know these questions are very basic to most of you.

I would suggest reading Beyer's book "The Winning Horseplayer". Not that his other books aren't good, which they are, but this one addresses trip handicapping better than any other. I think what you want to do when you watch a race is determine who really was the best, or 2nd or 3rd best horses. To get the big picture, you must make a judgement on the pace, the bias (if any), and racing position during the race. If the field was to face each other again, who would be worthy of a wager? These type of betbacks are the bread and butter plays for most high level players.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

replays and do start a log ..make dry runs ..look at where your r,o,i is after say a month period..this game is all about being choosy with your money..when you get that part witch is the hardest for most players you can take those results and see where your play is best invested..my 2c listen to the people here ask question..this is the right spot to learn ..i do all the time..

[Cajungator26]

Good info, Andy. Thanks for posting it.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

To be honest, you sort of just need to watch as many replays as you can and learn for yourself what is a bad trip or what is important. It's very hard to quantify things.

One thing I find important is position. What I mean by that is multifaceted. Did your horse encounter early trouble that placed him farther back than he should have been? Did your horse find itself too close to a fast pace? In order to do this you have to have a reasonable mental picture of how a race " should " unfold and how it actually unfolds. It's esoteric, and not what most people think when they say " trips ", but I think it gets to the heart of trip handicapping.

The best way to start is to watch the replay, pan and head on, enough times so you have noted where every horse was on the turn ( or turns ), and if any of them had trouble. From there you disect the race and see how the trip may have affected the horse.

From here it's important to distinguish between real trouble and fake trouble. The horse who saved ground behind a contentious pace, yet had to steady for room while waiting to get out, had a good trip overall. The horse who tried to rally wide behind a slow pace that never came back had an untenable trip.

All in all, you have to watch a lot of races, and learn for yourself what trips are. It's a lot of work, but I find it the most fascinating part of the game, and potentially very profitable.

The difficulty of this particular aspect of handicapping Andy cannot be over emphasized enough. It is known among most players to be the hardest part of the game. There are many that readily admit that they are not good trip handicappers, that they do not watch race replays and garner as much information as others may. For many, and if I recall, even Andy Beyer, states in his books that this was the most difficult aspect of the game to attain proficency. He said that it took him years and year to do so.

You have achieved quite a lot in being so adept in this way.

[Grits]

There was another post here, its gone. Thanks for removing it.

In recalling what was written though, sorry if I appear to be sucking up. I don't, . . . its too much trouble. It's a good post and I know how damn hard reviewing and learning from race replays is. I'm not good at it.

I removed it because I don't want him to know my true feelings. I'm e-shy.