Derby Future Odds, Presented by Dunbar

Dunbar · #1 04-17-2007, 12:58 PM

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4/24 update

Overall odds are improving. Implied takeout is 2%, but doesn't include a couple of possible horses. (Slew'sTizzy, Imawild, eg)

AGS up from 16-1 to almost 19-1 at Pinny
Cowtown Cat down from 26.50 to 22.50 at TheGreek
Dominican up from 20.5 to 22.5 at TheGreek
Great Hunter up to 23.4 at Pinny
Hard Spun up to 14.73 at Pinny
NoBiz up to 9-1 at World (still 8.85 at Greek)
Scat Daddy up from 9.13 to over 10-1 at Pinny
Stormello down from 75-1 to 30-1 at Pinny (Marky must have made his bet!). Best now is 52.50-1 at TheGreek
Street Sense down from 7.05 to 6.85 at TheGreek
Tiago up from 18-1 to 20.5 at TheGreek
Zanzero down from 37-1 to 30-1 at Bodog

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 18.91 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Belgravia 70 Bodog
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 26.5 Greek
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 22.5 Greek
Great Hunter 23.4 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 14.73 Pinny (14.15 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 10.08 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 18.15 TheGreek
Zanjero 37 Bodog

The implied takeout using these odds is 2%

--Dunbar

philcski · #2 04-17-2007, 01:03 PM

Good stuff, thanks Dunbar.

It's scary how accurate these guys are relative to the closing prices, we should pull this list up again in 3 weeks and see how they did...

brockguy · #3 04-17-2007, 01:18 PM

posted this on another one but this is the best of euro odds compilers:
Curlin (5/1) ,
Scat Daddy (6/1) ,
Street Sense (7/1) ,
Nobiz Like Shobiz (9/1) ,
Circular Quay (10/1) ,
Dominican (14/1) ,
Great Hunter (14/1) ,
Notional (14/1) ,
Tiago (16/1) ,
Any Given Saturday (20/1) ,
Hard Spun (20/1) ,
Chelokee (25/1) ,
Cowtown Cat (25/1) ,
Stormello (25/1) ,
Zanjero (25/1) ,
Air Commander (33/1) ,
Deadly Dealer (33/1) ,
Drums of Thunder (33/1) ,
Ketchikan (33/1) ,
King Of The Roxy (33/1)
Sam P (40-1)
Belgravia (50-1)
Cobalt Blue (50-1)
Teuflesberg (66-1)

Dunbar · #4 04-17-2007, 10:00 PM

TheGreek put up some matchups today. I'm amused by the first one: (Note that +225 means you get 2.25 to 1; -115 means you put up 1.15 to win 1.)

C's vs S's vs Any other
Wager is on the horses who's 1st name begins with a "C", an "S" or any other horse that runs in the 2007 Kentucky Derby
1801 Horse with 1st name begin with "C" +225
1802 Horse with 1st name begin with "S" +285
1803 Any Other Horse -115

Nobiz Like Shobiz vs Scat Daddy Both horses must start for action.
1805 Nobiz Like Shobiz -125
1806 Scat Daddy +100

Curlin vs Street Sense Both horses must start for action.
1807 Curlin -110
1808 Street Sense -110

Dominican vs Zanjero Both horses must start for action.
1809 Dominican -110
1810 Zanjero -110

Any Given Saturday vs Circular Quay Both horses must start for action.
1811 Any Given Saturday +110
1812 Circular Quay -135

Great Hunter vs Hard Spun Both horses must start for action.
1813 Great Hunter -110
1814 Hard Spun -110

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #5 04-20-2007, 10:36 AM

4/20 changes:

CQ down from 10.15-1 to 9.85-1 at TheGreek. Oddly, up to 11-1 at World
NoBiz up from 8.25-1 to 8.85-1 at TheGreek.
StreetSense up from 6.85-1 to 7.05-1 at TheGreek
AGS up to 15.42 at Pinny
Scat Daddy up to 8.91 at Pinny

Here's the current list:

AnyGivSat'day 15.42 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Belgravia 70 Bodog
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World (9.85 Greek)
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 26.5 Greek
Curlin 4.45 Greek
Dominican 20.5 Greek
Great Hunter 20 World
Hard Spun 14.15 Greek
Liquidity 50 Bodog, World
Nobiz Shobiz 8.85 Greek
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 8.91 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 18.15 TheGreek
Zanjero 37 Bodog

Those odds imply a 6% takeout.
Some better values can be found at EhorseX. Cowtown Cat is being offered at 34-1 and Curlin is 5.5-1, for example.

--Dunbar

POINTGIVEN1985 · #6 04-20-2007, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy

posted this on another one but this is the best of euro odds compilers:
Curlin (5/1) ,
Scat Daddy (6/1) ,
Street Sense (7/1) ,
Nobiz Like Shobiz (9/1) ,
Circular Quay (10/1) ,
Dominican (14/1) ,
Great Hunter (14/1) ,
Notional (14/1) ,
Tiago (16/1) ,
Any Given Saturday (20/1) ,
Hard Spun (20/1) ,
Chelokee (25/1) ,
Cowtown Cat (25/1) ,
Stormello (25/1) ,
Zanjero (25/1) ,
Air Commander (33/1) ,
Deadly Dealer (33/1) ,
Drums of Thunder (33/1) ,
Ketchikan (33/1) ,
King Of The Roxy (33/1)
Sam P (40-1)
Belgravia (50-1)
Cobalt Blue (50-1)
Teuflesberg (66-1)

scat daddy being lower odds then street sense is almost laughable in my opinion, what did street sense do wrong in the bluegrass not to be loved in the derby ? scat daddy reminds me so so much of high fly a few years back, beats up on weak florida competition and will go to the derby and not run a lick, possibly finish last.

Dunbar · #7 04-21-2007, 07:33 AM

4/21 update

AGS now up to 16.03-1 (from 15.42) at Pinnacle
Scat Daddy up to 9.13-1 (from (8.91) at Pinnacle
Curlin up to 4.65 at TheGreek (from 4.45; this happened a couple days ago, but I didn't have it updated on the list below)

Here is the updated list. One or more of these future books will probably take its odds down today because of the "preps". TheGreek is sometimes very slow at putting the odds back up again.

AnyGivSat'day 16.03 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Belgravia 70 Bodog
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 26.5 Greek
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 20.5 Greek
Great Hunter 20 World
Hard Spun 14.15 Greek
Liquidity 50 Bodog, World
Nobiz Shobiz 8.85 Greek
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 9.13 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 18.15 TheGreek
Zanjero 37 Bodog

The implied takeout using these odds is 5.5%

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #8 04-22-2007, 06:15 PM

4/22:

TheGreek and Bodog took their Derby future odds down yesterday, fearing I don't know what. TheGreek was back up this morning, but Bodog still doesn't have a futures line posted. I'll wait until tomorrow to update the list.

Of some interest is that Curlin has been bet down below 3-1 at Pinnacle (2.94). Pinnacle acts almost like a parimutual, moving odds quickly to react to bets. TheGreek, in contrast, will often take a stand and be hard to budge. (TheGreek have been between 4.45-1 and 4.65-1 on Curlin since I started watching.) The odds at Pinnacle are probably a rough indicator of what to expect on Derby Day.

I found it also interesting that Street Sense is favored over Curlin in a matchup at TheGreek. It's now:

Curlin +100
Street Sense -125

--Dunbar

MarkyD · #9 04-22-2007, 08:18 PM

Dunbar need your opinion.

I will be using my pinni account for futures.
I have been following the lines sice last week. I noticed they just jumped a little after 6pm today.

I will be using 700$.
I am trying to figure out if I will get better value at post time.

100$, is going on Stormello at 75-1. I believe his odds will be down come post time.

What do you think about Hard Spun currently +1446. He came out last week on pinni at around +1110. Do you think I should keep waiting or he will not get any higher then +1446?

My other bet will be Great Hunter currently +2276. I think he was around +1300 last Sunday. Great hunter 23-1. I have to attack those odds.

If you had to bet the two. HS and GH how would you spend your 600$ on them?

Thanks man.

Dunbar · #10 04-23-2007, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkyD

Dunbar need your opinion.

I will be using my pinni account for futures.
I have been following the lines sice last week. I noticed they just jumped a little after 6pm today.

I will be using 700$.
I am trying to figure out if I will get better value at post time.

100$, is going on Stormello at 75-1. I believe his odds will be down come post time.

What do you think about Hard Spun currently +1446. He came out last week on pinni at around +1110. Do you think I should keep waiting or he will not get any higher then +1446?

My other bet will be Great Hunter currently +2276. I think he was around +1300 last Sunday. Great hunter 23-1. I have to attack those odds.

If you had to bet the two. HS and GH how would you spend your 600$ on them?

Thanks man.

Marky, I haven't made even a rough line yet for the Derby. I don't have a strong opinion on any of the 3 horses you mentioned. Until I make a line, I can only talk comfortably about whether Pinnacle's odds appear in line with others. Others here can give you stronger (and probably better) opinions on whether any of the 3 horses have value at the odds you are looking at.

I was going to point out that Stormello at 75-1 is so far above TheGreek's 45-1 that it looks out-of-line and probably worth a bet. But now I see that TheGreek's odds on Stormello have risen to 52.5-1. That's still pretty far below 75-1, but it's an indication that there has so far been no interest in betting on Stormello. Still, I think 75-1 is going to look generous compared to his odds on raceday.

Hard Spun is +1415 at TheGreek. That's so close to the Pinnacle line (+1446) that I don't think you'd do much worse waiting until the Derby to bet it.

Great Hunter at 22.76-1 is substantially better than TheGreek's 18-1. Also, WorldSportsExchange dropped from 20-1 to 15-1 (which doesn't mean much since they are seldom competitive).

It will be easier to judge these when EhorseX gets active again. (The principal line maker there seems to have pulled his/her bets this morning.)

Whatever odds you are looking at, don't forget to discount it a little for the chance the horse doesn't make it to the starting gate. I'm using a discount of 10% for the next several days. (I'm thinking that on average, 2 of the 20-22 horses are going to drop out in the next 2 weeks because of fever, injury, etc.) So, Great Hunter at 22.76-1 today is like getting about 20-1 on Derby Day. By next week the discount I use will drop to 5%.

--Dunbar

lemoncrush · #11 04-23-2007, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

scat daddy being lower odds then street sense is almost laughable in my opinion, what did street sense do wrong in the bluegrass not to be loved in the derby ? scat daddy reminds me so so much of high fly a few years back, beats up on weak florida competition and will go to the derby and not run a lick, possibly finish last.

I made the same comparison a few weeks back, but in fairness, high fly didn't run terrible. Coming into the far turn, he was right on the lead but as expected, faded badly down the stretch.
I'm concerned about Scat Daddy doing the same thing. I think he might be at his best around 1/16 mile or so.

Dunbar · #12 04-24-2007, 06:40 AM

4/24 update

Overall odds are improving. Implied takeout is 2%, but doesn't include a couple of possible horses. (Slew'sTizzy, Imawild, eg)

AGS up from 16-1 to almost 19-1 at Pinny
Cowtown Cat down from 26.50 to 22.50 at TheGreek
Dominican up from 20.5 to 22.5 at TheGreek
Great Hunter up to 23.4 at Pinny
Hard Spun up to 14.73 at Pinny
NoBiz up to 9-1 at World (still 8.85 at Greek)
Scat Daddy up from 9.13 to over 10-1 at Pinny
Stormello down from 75-1 to 30-1 at Pinny (Marky must have made his bet!). Best now is 52.50-1 at TheGreek
Street Sense down from 7.05 to 6.85 at TheGreek
Tiago up from 18-1 to 20.5 at TheGreek
Zanzero down from 37-1 to 30-1 at Bodog

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 18.91 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 26.5 Greek
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 22.5 Greek
Great Hunter 23.4 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 14.73 Pinny (14.15 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 10.08 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 20.5 TheGreek
Zanjero 30 Bodog

The implied takeout using these odds is 2%

--Dunbar

(Edited to remove Belgravia from list.)
(Edited to correct odds in list on Tiago and Zanjero)

SniperSB23 · #13 04-24-2007, 10:01 AM

Good stuff, 19-1 on Any Given Saturday is extremely interesting. I can't see him going off higher than 12-1 on Derby Day and wouldn't be surprised to see him get under 10-1.

MarkyD · #14 04-24-2007, 01:50 PM

Hit a 100 on Stormello yesterday, he dropped to 30-1 right away.

Just hit 300$ on GH. he was +2340. As soon as I went back to look pinni dropped his line to +1800.

Next in line is my main bet Hard SPun. 400$. I am trying to see if pinni will bring him a little higher. Would like to get him at +1550.

GL

hockey2315 · #15 04-24-2007, 10:43 PM

Curlin – 9/2
Street Sense – 6/1
Nobiz Like Shobiz – 9/1
Scat Daddy – 10/1
Circular Quay – 12/1
Any Given Saturday – 15/1
Hard Spun – 15/1
Tiago – 18/1
Dominican – 20/1
Great Hunter – 24/1
Zanjero – 28/1
Cowtown Cat – 30/1
Sam P. – 35/1
Liquidity – 50/1
Cobalt Blue – 60/1
Stormello – 75/1
Teuflesburg – 80/1
Sedgefield – 90/1
Storm in May – 100/1
Slew’s Tizzy- 100/1

Dunbar · #16 04-25-2007, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Curlin – 9/2
Street Sense – 6/1
Nobiz Like Shobiz – 9/1
Scat Daddy – 10/1
Circular Quay – 12/1
Any Given Saturday – 15/1
Hard Spun – 15/1
Tiago – 18/1
Dominican – 20/1
Great Hunter – 24/1
Zanjero – 28/1
Cowtown Cat – 30/1
Sam P. – 35/1
Liquidity – 50/1
Cobalt Blue – 60/1
Stormello – 75/1
Teuflesburg – 80/1
Sedgefield – 90/1
Storm in May – 100/1
Slew’s Tizzy- 100/1

Looks pretty good to me, hockey. The odds add to 104%, so you'd have to raise the odds on one or more horses to get it to 100%. But 104% is way closer to 100% than most people post.

According to your line, the biggest bargains in the futures right now would be Cobalt Blue (offered at 100-1) and SamP (offered at 45-1). Yesterday's 19-1 on AGS has disappeard.

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #17 04-25-2007, 11:26 AM

4/25 update
Several horse's odds have been pushed way up at Pinnacle due to heavy betting on Curlin. Check out Hard Spun and Scat Daddy, in particular.

AGS down from 19-1 to 14-1 at Pinny. Sniper must have struck!
Cowtown Cat down from 26.5-1 to 20.5-1 at Greek, but up to 23.57-1 at Pinny.
Curlin must be taking big action at Pinnacle. Down to 2.13-1. (Still 4.65-1 at Greek)
Dominican up to 23.67-1 at Pinnacle
Great Hunter up to 25.97-1 at Pinny
Hard Spun up to 19.66-1 at Pinny
Scat Daddy up from 10-1 to 12.32-1 at Pinny
Tiago up to 22.69 at Pinny

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 15 Bodog
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 23.57 Pinny (20.5 Greek)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 23.67 (22.5 Greek)
Great Hunter 25.97 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 19.66 Pinny (14.15 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 12.32 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 22.69 Pinny (20.5 TheGreek)
Zanjero 30 Bodog, Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 0%. That's right. You could bet everyone of those horses proportionally, and the only way you'd lose would be if a horse not listed (eg, Slew's Tizzy) won.

Marky, if you haven't taken your Hard Spun yet, I suspect that today is the day to do it. The high odds at Pinnacle are probably a very short term aberration that resulted from some big betting on Curlin.

--Dunbar

SniperSB23 · #18 04-25-2007, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

4/25 update
Several horse's odds have been pushed way up at Pinnacle due to heavy betting on Curlin. Check out Hard Spun and Scat Daddy, in particular.

AGS down from 19-1 to 14-1 at Pinny. Sniper must have struck!
Cowtown Cat down from 26.5-1 to 20.5-1 at Greek, but up to 23.57-1 at Pinny.
Curlin must be taking big action at Pinnacle. Down to 2.13-1. (Still 4.65-1 at Greek)
Dominican up to 23.67-1 at Pinnacle
Great Hunter up to 25.97-1 at Pinny
Hard Spun up to 19.66-1 at Pinny
Scat Daddy up from 10-1 to 12.32-1 at Pinny
Tiago up to 22.69 at Pinny

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 15 Bodog
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 23.57 Pinny (20.5 Greek)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 23.67 (22.5 Greek)
Great Hunter 25.97 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 19.66 Pinny (14.15 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 12.32 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 22.69 Pinny (20.5 TheGreek)
Zanjero 30 Bodog, Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 0%. That's right. You could bet everyone of those horses proportionally, and the only way you'd lose would be if a horse not listed (eg, Slew's Tizzy) won.

Marky, if you haven't taken your Hard Spun yet, I suspect that today is the day to do it. The high odds at Pinnacle are probably a very short term aberration that resulted from some big betting on Curlin.

--Dunbar

Wish I did, that 19-1 was a steal.

hockey2315 · #19 04-25-2007, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Looks pretty good to me, hockey. The odds add to 104%, so you'd have to raise the odds on one or more horses to get it to 100%. But 104% is way closer to 100% than most people post.

According to your line, the biggest bargains in the futures right now would be Cobalt Blue (offered at 100-1) and SamP (offered at 45-1). Yesterday's 19-1 on AGS has disappeard.

--Dunbar

I thought I had it at 116% to account for take-out. . . maybe I did it wrong. . . I've never done one before

Dunbar · #20 04-25-2007, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I thought I had it at 116% to account for take-out. . . maybe I did it wrong. . . I've never done one before

Hockey, here's how you check whether the odds add to 100% (or to 116%, or whatever you are shooting for.)

Take each horse's odds, and calculate 1/(1+odds). Then add them up.

So, for Curlin you'd have 1/(1+4.5) = 0.182.
for Street Sense, you'd have 1/(1+6) = 0.142.
and so on down to Slew's Tizzy at 1/(1+100) = 0.010

When I add those up for your line, I get 1.045 (=104.5%).

It may be an interesting exercise to try to produce a morning line with a 16% takeout (to see how close you can come to the bettors?), but I think it's much more useful to work on a line where the odds add to 100%. If your "100% line" is good, then you can look for bets on horses with odds higher than those in your line. You can't do that when your line is a 16% takeout line. (well, you can do it, but you have to go far enough over to allow for the takeout.)

--Dunbar

PS--to convert the odds to takeout, there is actually one more step. You take the total (1.045 in your case), and calculate 1/1.045 = 0.957. That's the "pay back". The track take is 1 - "payback" = 1 - 0.957 = 4.3%.

For example, if you really want a 16% takeout line, then when you add up the terms 1/(1+odds) for each of your horses, it should add to 119%. Then the last step shows that 1 - 1/1.19 = 16%. Hope I didn't lose you on that one.