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#1
04-22-2007, 06:07 PM
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grab some sack..a bettors opinion
i think there is alot of quality info out there sheets , tgs ,drf/formulater. pace figs aio....but if you think about it..it can be really confusing to the medium player...by that i mean a guy that puts his time in reads every book in hopes of gaining an advantage, in the end i think hard lesssons on bad beats makes you a better player ..capping great and betting bad ruins more people than enron...lets say you have a horse you like ALOT..he goes off at 5-1 and rolls for the win...did you..
a/ play him to win b/ play him in exotics..ext c bet him to show d dump on him as your play of the day..use that horse as the light of god betting wise ..key him in pick 3s 4s wheel the ext tri super.. just back your opinion to the fullest..... the person who chose d will buy far get the most out of his betting buck you may get hit 7 out out of 10 times but those three times you will make more than the losers.....grab some sack aka BALLS and repect your opinion enough to use the advantage you percieve to get payed at this game.. i know im no rocket scientist.. but i hope this will help dters get the point.. hooves..maybee some of the pros like andy and steve can chime in... Last edited by hoovesupsideyourhead : 04-22-2007 at 06:34 PM. 
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#2
04-22-2007, 06:27 PM
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Hooves,
We see alot of great picks out of you. Tell me, do you make good money playing the ponies? Do you do it for a living? What would you say your ROI is? I know you're far better than me at this sport. Spyder
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
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#3
04-22-2007, 06:31 PM
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Hooves, you make a good point. But the problem is bankroll. How much of your day's bankroll will you put on that horse? For example, you start with $1000, the horse you are talking about is in the 2nd race, how much should you wager?
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#4
04-22-2007, 06:32 PM
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#5
04-22-2007, 06:43 PM
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that race or the race you like should be tied in ..in all plays max your advantage..id say with 1000 buck is high for the rec player..
300 win 200 ect key x 2 ,,,,1 key with 3/4. =.400 thats 700 in tri key 50 buck key 1 over 3/4 100 bucks pick 3 and 4 15 or 20 x if the light shines on you this day be ready to soak it in... Last edited by hoovesupsideyourhead : 04-22-2007 at 08:12 PM.
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#6
04-22-2007, 06:49 PM
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I just chose $1000 because it's an even number, and once again this is the entire day's bankroll.. so let me get this straight...are you saying that one should use his entire bankroll for the day on this one race? Or does it come out to approx $800 or $900?
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#7
04-22-2007, 06:56 PM
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im saying that you should
a. pound your best play of the day b tie that horse in exotics c be smart if this is your best play of the day why not take full advantage of it..no matter what the race is..the other bets are action bets..real players that do this for a living dont make action bets..they may wait in the wings till they get what they think is a play..then like sharks to blood they destroy that horse ..in the three 4 and exotics..max ing out the advantage.. Last edited by hoovesupsideyourhead : 04-22-2007 at 08:44 PM.
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#9
04-22-2007, 07:02 PM
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#10
04-22-2007, 07:03 PM
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Bro.....
I can't really argue with any of that, if you got the funds go for it! Nothing wrong with having a strong opinion on a particular race or horse, and making as many plays as you can afford around that.
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#12
04-22-2007, 07:12 PM
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Excellent advice hooves. it doesnt matter if your playing for a 100 or a 1000. If its your best bet of the day, the greatest portion of your bankroll should be on it.
__________________
Inveniemus viam aut faciemus
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#13
04-22-2007, 07:15 PM
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#14
04-22-2007, 07:20 PM
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hooves, when you say best play of the day, I assume you just mean the horse you consider to be the biggest lock (most likely to win, without regard to odds). Right? Because most of time, that horse is going to be less than 3-1, maybe 5/2 or less. If that's the case, I still agree with what you're saying. 5/2 on a couple hundred is a VERY nice return. Try doing that in the stock market, it'll take you a year at the least...unless you're trading options or penny stocks on "advice."
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#15
04-22-2007, 07:22 PM
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Hey Hooves
I think I know what you are saying. I've done this a million times. I'm not up in the calibar of you or some of the other guys in here, but I'm not a bad handicapper. The problem is...I'm a bad bettor. Too often I'm looking for a price. So, instead of hammering something I really like at say 2-1, 3-1, or 7/2, I'll try to beat it with something else because I don't like the price. On the other hand, I'll love a horse that's 35-1 or higher, but not have the BALLS to put it on top. It's something I'm really trying to change about my betting patterns.
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#16
04-22-2007, 07:23 PM
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Precisely, You start playing races where you have no real opinion just because you want some action. Which if all you want is entertainment, then by all means action bet away. But if your actually trying to make a little money, Your bankroll has to put on the horse you like the best. I find its also a good acid test. If i brought 200 with me and and i'm going to bet 150 of it on a horse, i better feel pretty strong. What it comes down to is, if you cant believe in your capping and your best bet of they day your going to lose money long-term. I'm still learning that lesson, but its gets better every day.
__________________
Inveniemus viam aut faciemus
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#17
04-22-2007, 07:26 PM
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Jman,
I won't speak for hooves, but for me personally, my best bet is the horse that i think has the greatest shot of winning at odds greater then 2-1. Pounding chalk just doesn't work. To me it doesnt matter if the horse is 2-1 or 10-1. If im that sure the horse is going to win i will hammer it. Saying that horses that i love at 10-1 are greater are few and far between. Most of my locks come between 7/2 and 5-1.
__________________
Inveniemus viam aut faciemus
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#18
04-22-2007, 07:34 PM
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I pounded chalk on Curlin in the Ark Derby at even odds. He was the biggest lock of the day. But, it was more of a get out than it was a "strategic" play of the day. It depends on the chalk...some are worth putting a little more of your bankroll on because of their lower odds. To get the return you want.
A wise sage once told me, ask yourself, "How much money do you want to make today?" Take your best horse, decide how much you need to bet to make that and lay it down. Over time it should be a winning strategy. At least a break even strategy 
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#19
04-22-2007, 07:36 PM
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I had a small wager also, I'm just not a big fan of betting short price horses to win. I went after the exacta.
__________________
Inveniemus viam aut faciemus
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#20
04-22-2007, 07:47 PM
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the horse dont know the odds...fire away..and yes that play ..if hes 7/2 is good if he ....
can be tied into a exotic bet..ext 7/2 over a 4-1 ect pick 3 6-1 over a 9-1 with your best play.. there is value witha shorter price out there ..this all depends on the card....lets go get the pick 3 and exotic bets tieing in curlin at ark derby..then we can talk about it..
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