blind betting.....

[IrishofNDMan]

I was going through old race results on equibase, and tell me what you think of this strategy. I know it is stupid and no fun because you don't actually get to try to pick winners and use what you know, but here is what it is and I am going to try it. Pick one track for a day, and put 10 dollars to win on one number for every race on that card. I simulated it a few times using the 6 at random tracks, and everytime I came out a little bit on top because I cashed a few longer shots. I am really going to try this, 100 bucks is the most I can lose on a 10 race card and you would think the 6 will come home atleast once. What are your guys thoughts besides how stupid this sounds??

[timmgirvan]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I was going through old race results on equibase, and tell me what you think of this strategy. I know it is stupid and no fun because you don't actually get to try to pick winners and use what you know, but here is what it is and I am going to try it. Pick one track for a day, and put 10 dollars to win on one number for every race on that card. I simulated it a few times using the 6 at random tracks, and everytime I came out a little bit on top because I cashed a few longer shots. I am really going to try this, 100 bucks is the most I can lose on a 10 race card and you would think the 6 will come home atleast once. What are your guys thoughts besides how stupid this sounds??

Irish: if anything like that were to be done by you, I suggest you put 5 across...I mean you are attempting to make Some money,right?

[IrishofNDMan]

yeah, putting 5 across does sound better, or atleast just 5 dollar win/place. After the past two days, I think I'll take my chances with this. Two horses this weekend helped me a litte. I cashed good win bets on Noble Stella Saturday and Laptop Computer Sunday and thats about it.

[Kasept]

My approach at the dog track is to box the 1-2-3 over and over.. It takes one hound in midpack to wipe out all the outside pups when they come flying around the turn.. That frequently leaves just the inside dogs to run on!

[paisjpq]

I've tried that bet with trotters and made some money--with those things it doesn't matter what the odds are cause the best horse will usually go off-stride in the last quarter and then my random post number had a chance regardless of odds.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I was going through old race results on equibase, and tell me what you think of this strategy. I know it is stupid and no fun because you don't actually get to try to pick winners and use what you know, but here is what it is and I am going to try it. Pick one track for a day, and put 10 dollars to win on one number for every race on that card. I simulated it a few times using the 6 at random tracks, and everytime I came out a little bit on top because I cashed a few longer shots. I am really going to try this, 100 bucks is the most I can lose on a 10 race card and you would think the 6 will come home atleast once. What are your guys thoughts besides how stupid this sounds??

I agree with you completely. It is stupid.

What are you thinking? Are you thinking that the 6 post is somehow vastly underbet by the majority of bettors? Why in the world would you think that?

The results you "simulated" were thrown off by the couple of longshots that happened to be included in that particular sample. In the longrun, you will lose at about the track take if you always bet the #6 horse. So everytime you put down your $100/day, you can expect to hang onto about $84 of it. If you bet it at Pinnacle, the rebate will bring you back up to $91 of it.

--Dunbar

[Thunder Gulch]

This sounds like my greyhound strategy... K, gotta throw the 8 dog in those boxes with the puppies. You are right that the middle dogs tend to have a lot of traffic issues, but the 8 wins the second most races behind the 1.

From the dumb bet department...after Giacomo last year, we figured that an ALL/ALL exacta box would have won money in three of five Derbies since they went to the 20 horse mutuel field. with a very nice overall profit due to some monster scores...also worked well in the Belmont with Sarava, Commendable, Lemon Drop Kid.

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I was going through old race results on equibase, and tell me what you think of this strategy. I know it is stupid and no fun because you don't actually get to try to pick winners and use what you know, but here is what it is and I am going to try it. Pick one track for a day, and put 10 dollars to win on one number for every race on that card. I simulated it a few times using the 6 at random tracks, and everytime I came out a little bit on top because I cashed a few longer shots. I am really going to try this, 100 bucks is the most I can lose on a 10 race card and you would think the 6 will come home atleast once. What are your guys thoughts besides how stupid this sounds??

Open up the DRF and go to the track you want to bet. It will give you the win percentage of each post. Most of the time it is between 9% and 15%. You have to figure your posts needs to win twice per day to make any money. Well that is 20% on a 10 race card. That is FAR better than the post win %. In addition to that, your horse will have to be no worse than 4-1 in order to break even. BAD BAD idea.

[ArlJim78]

Hey Irish, what is else is there to know? You said up front it was stupid and you were right. Its on par with betting horses with braided manes, or your favorite number, or horses that take a dump in the post parade.

[2Hot4TV]

ND Man, you might try this angle over betting blindly, Just wait till after post parade and bet the underlay with the highest odds. This will at least show that the barn or betting public has some confidence the horse will run well. That being said, betting the races is a skill game and you should keep developing the tools to be proficent at it. Good Luck.

Your simulation did not contain enough data to be considered satistically significant most likely.

It is interesting that you would try something like this though.

Something like this, only on races with a certain predefined tote distribution based on some number theory, that would be very interesting.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Hey ND... Could you let me know what day and track your going to do that, and I'll make exacta bets without the horse your throwing your money away at !! If your going to throw your money up in the air.. why not bet the longest shot on the board to show each race ? You have the same chance as a post post. Or better yet why not bet the horse with the Yellow silks ?
No matter how you bet, just enjoy your day @ the track & tell your friends!

ND man.

I think the following would be interesting if you had the time and the means:

Lets say you look only for maiden two year old races with 9 or so runners. Your next criteria(um) might be two of the nine or more runners are clear favorites. Lets say even money and 3:2. This basically means that the public has put a 90% probability that 2 out of 9 or more runners will win. That means that the other 7 runners (in a nine horse field would) would have been given a 10% probability of winning. If we split that 10% probability up evenly between those seven horses that means they all go of at 69-1 (this is calculated without track out take). Now of course this will not happen so we make sure that the 3rd betting favorite has to be at odds of 10-1 or more.

So the criteria:
1. 2yo maidens, 9 or more runners
2. Two favorites in which the public deems worth a 90% probability of winning
(one even money, one at 3:2 would give you this... could be a number of other combinations of two horses though)
3. The 3rd betting favorite is at 10-1 or better.

Now I think this could be very interesting. But difficult to actually carry out.

Oh yes. You bet the 7 "slugs".

[zippyneedsawin]

I have no problem with that strategy... it's not for me, but if I were to do something like that, I'd take three numbers at random and do a dollar tri box for each race.(costs $6 per race) With this bet you are at least investing less and have a better chance at a large payout. (My brother and I have actually done this each of the past two Breeder's Cup day just for fun. Please note, it HAS NOT come in yet!! )

[sumitas]

Whatever floats your boat. Doing something like that is less stupid if you refer to the track bias. I'd bet the post position with the highest win %. If it was 1 - 3 i'd pick either the 1,2 or 3 for every race.